tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-79123536834410621932024-02-20T10:47:20.409-05:00Conroy and The ManConroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.comBlogger130125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-46735256347491429532013-01-17T08:22:00.001-05:002013-01-17T08:22:09.460-05:00Conroy's Brief Hiatus<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjauht5j4dyl7BNBcsys3B0s68qL7NBjeM_ZFH7vI0OzIN8VJmHZgqn7o_tOKtq9_SLEAjX8JK1kxT79Mvkd1EHtf5rOXI26YU9jfF2YerA3NdiDf0IUhQP8NkjhrnWuVRPkCv2QMiDfQTi/s1600/ConroyandTheMan+logo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjauht5j4dyl7BNBcsys3B0s68qL7NBjeM_ZFH7vI0OzIN8VJmHZgqn7o_tOKtq9_SLEAjX8JK1kxT79Mvkd1EHtf5rOXI26YU9jfF2YerA3NdiDf0IUhQP8NkjhrnWuVRPkCv2QMiDfQTi/s200/ConroyandTheMan+logo.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
Frequent readers may have noticed that I haven't posted anything new over the last month. There is good reason for this lull. I'm taking a few months to focus on a project that I've been wanting to do for sometime, namely writing a readers guide to James Joyce's <i>Ulysses</i>; a guide for first-time readers who may be intimidated or overwhelmed with the challenges of Joyce's masterpiece. This effort represents something of a passion and requires that I (temporarily) set aside my other writing.<br />
<br />
I know this may come as bad news for readers who regularly enjoy my posts, but I hope that you'll keep coming back to the site. I'll occasionally post updates on my progress and my intention is to present at least some of my <i>Ulysses</i> guide on this blog. In the meantime, you may see a post or two from The Man. Please continue to send comments, and if you're so inclined, read some earlier posts (a selection of some of my favorites are linked below).<br />
<br />
I look forward to getting back to my blogging in the coming months.<br />
<br />
Sincerely,<br />
Conroy<br />
<br />
<br />
A selection of posts from Conroy and The Man:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2010/10/to-sky.html">To the Sky</a>, from October 28, 2010</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/01/perfect-climate-part-1.html">The Perfect Climate Part 1</a> and <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/01/perfect-climate-part-2.html">Part 2</a>, from January 18 and 20, 2011</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/04/men-in-space.html">Men in Space</a>, from April 4, 2011</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/07/capital-cities.html">Capital Cities</a>, from July 6, 2011</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/09/city-of-bridges.html">City of Bridges</a>, from September 8, 2011</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/09/day-and-night.html">Day and Night</a>, from September 27, 2011</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/10/visiting-history-battleship-north.html">Visiting the Battleship North Carolina</a>, from October 27, 2011</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/11/getting-old.html">Getting Old</a>, from November 15, 2011</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/01/god-particle.html">The God Particle</a>, from January 20, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/02/warrior-tennis.html">Warrior Tennis</a>, from February 2, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/02/shifting-americans.html">Shifting Americans</a>, from February 25, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/07/sinking-cities.html">Sinking Cities</a>, from July 2, 2012</li>
<li><a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/09/happy-birthday-us-constitution.html">Happy Birthday, U.S. Constitution</a>, from September 13, 2012</li>
</ul>
<br />Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-78741077348822534582012-12-19T20:42:00.000-05:002012-12-19T20:42:38.488-05:00Conroy’s Rules of Driving<style>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rule 15 - Put the cell phone down.</td></tr>
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Back in the summer <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/07/use-your-turn-signal.html">I wrote a post imploring</a><a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
my readers to use their car’s turn signals. Too many drivers, it seems, fail to
do this simple yet important act. I meant that post as a (hopefully entertaining)
lecture on good driving behavior. An ulterior motive was to express a
frustration that I know many of us feel when driving, with an idea (read: hope)
that venting in a public forum would somehow be cathartic and lessen my private
frustration. No such luck. In fact, if anything, I’ve grown more
vigilant of poor driving habits and consequently even more frustrated in the months since, and in that vein I’ve decided to list my rules
of driving, highlighting all the many ways that we as a driving public have
made driving less safe, more stressful, and indeed more antisocial than it
needs to be.
<br />
<br />
Let’s start with a simple premise: driving is a social
activity and as such it demands you, the driver, to be socially responsible.
You, the driver, for the majority of your trips, might be alone. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of the time your driving will be for a
purpose, heading to or from a specific place for a specific reason. You drive
from your house to your work; you drive to the store to get groceries for
tonight’s dinner; you drive to your friends’ house on Sunday to watch a
football game, or to take your kids to sports practice, or to pick someone up
from a school event. In other words, most of the time, for all the myriad
reasons you go from one place to another, your trips are very personal and
individual. This is true, certainly, but seeing driving in this light can lead
to a perspective where you view your trips (and the goals that those trips
serve) as of paramount importance, and that everyone else on the road is an
obstacle in your way, delaying your trip, making your life harder. Such
thinking is abetted by the fact that so many of us drive in a “car cocoon” as I
like to term it, windows up, radio on, cut off from all the other drivers in
their car cocoons. The other drivers become mere abstractions, unknown and
barely glimpsed.
<br />
<br />
It’s this kind of perspective, I believe, that leads to so
many of the bad driving behaviors that, well, drive all of us up a wall. How
many times have you heard someone say that drivers from fill-in-the-blank<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>
are terrible? This lament is universal (at least in the U.S.) because we all
see so much bad driving every day. When we envision ourselves, individually, in
our car as the central and most important person on the road, it leads to a
disregard of other drivers, to laziness in our driving, and to rationalizing
away our bad behaviors. It’s why so often the rules of the road seem to have
been never learned, forgotten, or ignored. You must fight this thinking. You
must be responsible to other drivers on the road. Understand that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">we all share the road</i>; that we all agree
to follow rules that make everyone’s trip as orderly and safe as possible; that
driving is a privilege earned – you must earn your driver’s license – and that privilege
comes with a responsibility to yourself, to the passengers in your car, and to
everyone else on the road. We all benefit from driving responsibly. This is the
same type of responsibility that leads you to throw your trash into cans
instead of hurling it into the gutter, or pay for the things you want instead
of stealing them, or to respect the personal freedoms of others. It’s the type
of responsibility that makes modern society work.
<br />
<br />
So keeping this perspective in mind, onto the rules.
<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">[As I get to this list
of Conroy’s Rules of Driving, know that while I’m declaring myself a crusader
for good driving, I know that the history of crusaders is full of hot air and
hypocrisy. So be it, I might not be a saint of the road, but I’ll still
champion the cause.]</i>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Conroy’s Rules of
Driving</b>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1. Be aware.</b> This
may seem obvious, but checking your mirrors, being alert to what’s happening
behind you and in the road some distance ahead, looking around as you approach an
intersection, just being aware of the general road situation around you. All of
this is supposed to be second nature for experienced drivers, but I get the
sense it isn’t based on the many rules below that aren’t being followed. One of
the primary reasons is that far too many people drive distracted and as a
result do not give their primary attention where it belongs, to driving. Too
many drivers are on autopilot.
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXgNGN8as-ehcUtqh8pIifnJ1CpwjQgR7af-HJ4G3vSkZ7oUPw9V41876iowJOe2f6eLrxcCPCAVYIBEYfVYhYqv5FGISZSGr6BJwT0MoWa6b4calVyV09D4znQ76wu1wkuqCHpWRmVra/s1600/TurnSignal-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXgNGN8as-ehcUtqh8pIifnJ1CpwjQgR7af-HJ4G3vSkZ7oUPw9V41876iowJOe2f6eLrxcCPCAVYIBEYfVYhYqv5FGISZSGr6BJwT0MoWa6b4calVyV09D4znQ76wu1wkuqCHpWRmVra/s320/TurnSignal-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2. Use your turn signal.</b>
I already went into this in great detail in <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/07/use-your-turn-signal.html">my earlier post</a>, but the general
idea is to use your turn signal any time you change lanes or make a turn so
that the other drivers around you know what you’re intending to do.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">3. Be considerate about
merging.</b> We’ve all been there, you need to merge out of your lane and into
the next lane for any of a number of valid reasons. Yet the stubborn driver in
the next lane won’t let you in. As if he/she owns that plot of road or driving
is some sort of competitive activity and letting you in front is ceding an
advantage (like you’re getting the better of them). And I suspect that many (or
most) of us on occasion have been pretty inconsiderate in not letting a driver
merge in front of us. Get over it, we’re living in a society, let the driver
merge. Letting a car in front of you makes no difference in your trip, but it
does make overall traffic flow better.
<br />
<br />
On the flip side, it’s also a merger’s responsibility to maneuver
in a timely fashion. There’s nothing more frustrating than seeing a driver
continue in a lane that is closed a short distance ahead with the expectation
that they can merge out of the lane at the last possible moment. Waiting till the last
opportunity to merge just causes worse congestion at the merge point and slows
everyone down overall. Do everyone a favor and merge (using your turn signal)
earlier than at the last possible moment.
<br />
<br />
And a final piece of advice, please give a thank you wave to anyone who lets you merge in front of them. It's an easy, common courtesy, and it humanizes the whole driving experience; it gets you out of your car cocoon for just a moment.
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvyozcwXNKSlFPqnxziThYhLei6G_hbVaEL48F0XgMPMkb610SQbPhm9-dzRQv-vsQVgeWTwhcnbW74VgaB_9vt0ZRDYN99fJfpS_zv6wqPtY7FjdRzVyyNDi71MFNN8nqu57SzvciAZG5/s1600/No_Left_Turn1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvyozcwXNKSlFPqnxziThYhLei6G_hbVaEL48F0XgMPMkb610SQbPhm9-dzRQv-vsQVgeWTwhcnbW74VgaB_9vt0ZRDYN99fJfpS_zv6wqPtY7FjdRzVyyNDi71MFNN8nqu57SzvciAZG5/s320/No_Left_Turn1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">4. Obey traffic signs.</b>
My day job as a transportation engineer has taught me that there is an awful
lot of thought that goes into every traffic sign put on the road. All of this
effort is needed to ensure a simple outcome: provide clear and consistent direction
to drivers to improve overall traffic operations. If you ignore or flout these
signs, you’re making traffic worse for everyone else. A good example is disobeying
the NO LEFT TURN sign. Often these signs apply during specific time periods,
say, rush hours, to eliminate left turns at intersections in conditions where
traffic is heavy and left turns are difficult and/or dangerous. If you decide
you’re going to make a left turn at an intersection where a NO LEFT TURN sign
is in place, you’ll just end up backing up traffic behind you as you likely
wait for an extended period for a gap in opposing traffic that allows a turn
(often when the light turns red and opposing traffic stops). This is a cardinal
example of bad behavior. You’ve decided that your trip is so much more
important that everyone else’s that you can ignore a rule that right’s there in
front of you in black and white<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a> – and actively delay a lot of other
drivers in the process.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">5. Use your lights.</b>
If it’s getting dark (or not yet light), or raining, or foggy, or any other
situation where conditions are a bit adverse, turn on your lights. The purpose
here is as much to let other drivers know you’re there as it is to allow you to
see well. In any case, it makes the road safer for you and everyone else.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOKFo849qDIlWX7yc5DcGj9dMm163-hjSH2Wkk-b6V0hLINZ3CLI0Hm0orvAz5h-3ldSiTIKPhv-lD6LvdPrV8PTxi8S4BKPjFCt5kEtAn1RkQdGZbA_XT6I6ooQ0X72qKfmm8aRF57K7j/s1600/stop-sign.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOKFo849qDIlWX7yc5DcGj9dMm163-hjSH2Wkk-b6V0hLINZ3CLI0Hm0orvAz5h-3ldSiTIKPhv-lD6LvdPrV8PTxi8S4BKPjFCt5kEtAn1RkQdGZbA_XT6I6ooQ0X72qKfmm8aRF57K7j/s320/stop-sign.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">6. Always stop at STOP
signs.</b> If you get into the habit of rolling through STOP signs when you can
see that there aren’t any cars coming in the other legs of the intersection,
you’re asking for trouble. Sooner or later you’re bound to make a mistake and
fail to see another car approaching the intersection (or already stopped), and
as you roll through the STOP sign you’ll either hit them or they’ll hit you.
Even more risky is your hitting a pedestrian, say, a child on a bike, because
pedestrians are always harder to spot than other cars and they expect
(especially children) you to stop. How bad would you feel if you hit a
pedestrian just because it was too much trouble to come to a complete stop for
one second? Get in the habit of always stopping so it will become second
nature.
<br />
<br />
If you want additional incentive, just assume that there’s a
traffic cop lurking hidden near the intersection just waiting for you to roll
through the sign so he can give you a ticket and ruin your day. So stop at
every STOP sign to avoid getting an aggravating and expensive ticket.
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRDX_VK1opJfSVu03Wns6c-1nwLZAjgkTpkFX6YWezqI6jEM9y-OzagqTUuSg7zqo9zr-6b343knhbTG9OpnAT_rr-BPBjf_gIPg-TXs5eGrV2j67euPYoa2MCXaEVssu4oSWqSv-edrUp/s1600/red+traffic+light.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRDX_VK1opJfSVu03Wns6c-1nwLZAjgkTpkFX6YWezqI6jEM9y-OzagqTUuSg7zqo9zr-6b343knhbTG9OpnAT_rr-BPBjf_gIPg-TXs5eGrV2j67euPYoa2MCXaEVssu4oSWqSv-edrUp/s320/red+traffic+light.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">7. Never run red lights.</b>
I can think of nothing more dangerous, and therefore selfish, than running a
red light. This can lead to catastrophic accidents, especially if cross traffic
is travelling at a high speed. Probably most of us never blatantly run a red
light in the middle of a traffic signal, but many sneak through an intersection
just after the signal turns red. This is still dangerous, especially for the
drivers in the cross directions who may go on a green light only to be hit by a
car violating the red light. Beyond that, sneaking through an intersection on
red delays the cross movement(s) from going on green, delaying a lot of other
drivers (even if it’s just for a second). In the scheme of any day, let alone a
week or month or year, waiting a couple of minutes at a signal for the next
green light is no big deal. A little bit of patience is a whole lot safer and
more considerate.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">8. Get in the correct
lane.</b> When approaching an intersection or interchange, be sure to maneuver into
the proper lane. With rare exception, there are ample signing and pavement
markings to direct you into the lane where you need to be, which should give
you plenty of time and distance to get into that lane. This calls for a little
situational awareness on your part, but the result is that you don’t end up in
a lane where you don’t want to be. Think of an intersection where someone is in
a through lane when they meant to be in a left turn lane and they hold the entire
queue of vehicles up behind them as they wait to merge (and then turn) left. Or
more dangerously, the driver who at high speed swerves suddenly out of an
interchange exit lane so they can stay on the freeway. Or even worse the driver
who <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">backs-up</i> on a freeway to exit
when they miss the ramp.
<br />
<br />
This last point leads to a follow-up rule: if you do get in
the wrong lane, continue on the road and turnaround at the next opportunity.
Don’t delay everyone at an intersection or dangerously maneuver on a freeway to
try and rectify you initial error with another even worse error.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjraKKnOTUxf1mD-bnOC4IsdqH_Yq9XEcPPvEAPGf334W2PIeOOz5Pvuvt7K5OKXeIysyQ69ElS0WIkZdZgtmSwUjUVzk8r3baCKDZas05coZhiDfs629KsoatWuT_jFWV3B8J6crLR-JVk/s1600/Cop+Car+Blocking+Intersection+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjraKKnOTUxf1mD-bnOC4IsdqH_Yq9XEcPPvEAPGf334W2PIeOOz5Pvuvt7K5OKXeIysyQ69ElS0WIkZdZgtmSwUjUVzk8r3baCKDZas05coZhiDfs629KsoatWuT_jFWV3B8J6crLR-JVk/s1600/Cop+Car+Blocking+Intersection+2.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cars blocking intersection (including a police car!)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">9. Don’t block the
intersection.</b> During congested periods signalized roads are often backed up
from one traffic signal to the next. Obviously any driver would prefer not to sit
at an intersection and watch the light go red in front of them because there’s
no room on the other side of the intersection for them to fit and not block the
cross traffic. Many drivers simply don’t wait, they enter the intersection and
when the light turns red they, still partially or fully in the intersection,
impede cross traffic. Don’t be one of these drivers that make congested rush
hours even worse. Don’t block an intersection, by the next signal cycle room
will be available for you to cross the intersection (and wait at the next
light). Again, a little bit of patience is a whole lot more considerate.
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl63Wy3nq8kv5Nh01Tt5MuzN_h2JLF6KAREJQT415SaJrFuVe68gUBcqKydABRKNvl6HJfXwPbqKRV_VS4obAUn9ALM72rmRHKqH8EJ0Oi4ZPEP6o1OF1xtX7ADh8kLzSLhqJJyFONLgjK/s1600/slower-traffic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl63Wy3nq8kv5Nh01Tt5MuzN_h2JLF6KAREJQT415SaJrFuVe68gUBcqKydABRKNvl6HJfXwPbqKRV_VS4obAUn9ALM72rmRHKqH8EJ0Oi4ZPEP6o1OF1xtX7ADh8kLzSLhqJJyFONLgjK/s200/slower-traffic.jpg" width="184" /></a></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">10. Slower drivers keep
right.</b> There are two types of drivers, there are fast drivers and there are
slow drivers. It’s probably best for everyone if slow drivers and fast drivers
agree not mix it up on the road. <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/06/speeding-and-its-discontents.html">I’ve made no secret</a> that I’m in the fast
driver camp, but that’s not material here. What is material is that in America
there is a tacit understanding<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a> that faster vehicles stay to the left and
slower vehicles stay to the right (I assume it’s opposite in countries like the
U.K. where they drive on the wrong side of the road). This is even assumed in
how freeways are designed with entrances and exits (almost always) on the right
where slower speeds prevail. Follow this understanding, if you want to drive
slower keep to the right lane and if you choose to drive faster stay on the
left. That way we can reduce the amount of maneuvering as, for example, fast
vehicles pass slow vehicles that are inexplicably traveling in the left lanes.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">11. Don’t tailgate.</b>
If you do happen to be a fast driver or if you’re just traveling in congested
conditions, don’t be a boor and ride the bumper of the car in front of you.
This is not only unnerving to the leading driver but it’s a recipe for an
accident, which by the way, will always be the tailgating driver’s fault.<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>
It’s better to (1) follow at a safe distance and (2) wait until there is a safe
opportunity to pass the leading vehicle. Your “delay” in following a slower
vehicle will be slight, so please be civilized.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">12. Be judicious in your
use of horns and flashing lights.</b> And when it comes to churlish behavior
little can compare to a profligate use of your car horn and flashing headlights.
The horn is meant as warning to other vehicles, ditto for flashing your
headlights. They are not meant to express your displeasure at the actions of
another driver. I’m guilty of using my horn to express displeasure (especially
when people don’t use their turn signals!), but I’m wrong (remember I’m not a
driving saint, just a crusader). When I use my horn on bad drivers it’s my
attempt to shame them, but I doubt it has this effect. Instead it just adds to
what many already consider a stressful and unpleasant experience. Driving
shouldn’t be an antagonistic exercise, so taking the high road and using a bit
of discretion when witness to other’s bad driving is probably the best course.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">13. Make way when
turning.</b> If you’re going to make a turn from a road to a side street or
driveway, first put on your turn signal, then get over to the right side of the
road (if turning right) or towards the left of the lane (if turning left) to
allow others room to pass. This is a simple and considerate maneuver, yet so
many people seem content to turn from the middle of the road, blocking anyone
behind from passing. This is particularly head-scratching when people turn from
a through lane where a turn lane is provided! (It’s a turn lane meant for you
to use when turning, please use it!)
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP-6GZAXQ6ohwZTxoiZLScBKVDrESHvOM_fhas_ama2ef-3I1LCR9CJ5gqpIcnhps0RvXweGDi7xcKyxo3n1B3p5gunbGywysDe7pxYQs7fST2Yj9zmlIbTTZ2gqMTYp5xKJjciTQuAUZJ/s1600/fire+engine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP-6GZAXQ6ohwZTxoiZLScBKVDrESHvOM_fhas_ama2ef-3I1LCR9CJ5gqpIcnhps0RvXweGDi7xcKyxo3n1B3p5gunbGywysDe7pxYQs7fST2Yj9zmlIbTTZ2gqMTYp5xKJjciTQuAUZJ/s320/fire+engine.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Make way for these vehicles - they're in a bigger hurry than you</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">14. Get out of the way of
emergency vehicles.</b> There is no better example of selfish, self-centered
driving than failing to yield to emergency vehicles. I can assure you that the
ambulance or police car or fire engine with flashing lights and wailing siren
is at that moment heading somewhere with more urgency than you. If you hear
sirens in the distance, perk up, find out where they’re coming from and make
sure you get out of the way should their route pass or intersect with yours. This
seems obvious, but we’ve all seen when the fire truck has to stop at an intersection
to avoid hitting the car(s) traveling in the cross direction that never
bothered to stop.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">15. Put the cell phone
down.</b> Finally, and circling back to rule 1, put your cell phone away.
Distracted driving leads to so many other bad driving behaviors. Your hands
should be free to handle the wheel (and turn signals). Some people (read: many
people) even text when driving, diverting their eyes to their phone and hands
from the wheel, the two actions a driver should never do. Use blu-tooth,
speaker phone, pull over to the side of the road, or just don’t use your phone
at all while driving.
<br />
<br />
If we followed these rules, and let’s avoid arguing and admit
that we all know that we should follow these rules, driving would be an
altogether more pleasant and less dangerous activity.
<br />
<br />
This is my list, and I would encourage you to share any
other rules that you think aren’t being commonly followed. I’ll add them to the
new page listing Conroy’s Rules of Driving that I’ve posted on this blog (see
<a href="http://conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/p/conroys-rules-of-driving.html">here</a>).
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> Some might say lecturing or even haranguing.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> Fill in the blank with whatever geographic
local you want. I hear this line all the time from people who have relocated to
Baltimore (my hometown) from somewhere else in the country, but I’ve also heard
it said when I’ve traveled somewhere else (not said by me, FYI).
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> This is literally true. In the United States, signs
with black text on a white background, like speed limit signs or NO LEFT TURN
signs, represent a traffic law and are statutorily enforceable. Compare this to
a sign with black text on a yellow background, like a curve warning sign, which
are meant to warn drivers of approaching road conditions but carry no statutory
weight (i.e., you can’t be issued a citation for going faster than a curve
speed advisory sign suggests).
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> Drivers backing-up on a freeway is a
particularly baffling behavior to me. By this action, the driver is indicating
that it is more important to exit at a ramp just passed (or stay on a freeway) than
it is to put the driver and any passengers, not to mention other drivers and their
passengers, in a very dangerous position. There is little more dangerous in
driving than going the wrong way on a high speed road, especially when going
the wrong way involves going in reverse which few are expert at doing. The next
interchange is bound to be a short distance away. If you pass your exit just
admit that you made a mistake, take a few minutes, and turnaround at the next
interchange. Safer for you, safer for everyone else, and just a few minutes
lost.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> More than a mere understanding in many cases
where statute dictates that slower moving large trucks use the right one or two
lanes on three-plus lane freeways. And American teenagers are taught in driving
school that slower traffic should keep to the right and passing should occur on
the left.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> And not just in a philosophical, karmic sense,
but legally as rear-end collisions are always the fault of the trailing driver.
Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-26364554940581573572012-12-06T21:11:00.000-05:002012-12-06T21:11:17.148-05:00The Long Journey of Voyager 1<style>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlW0kxaKqmTf7n20fBi-NlVHcDRNJqyAv9IfBDtEwY5K0ReZF1HHWOzrAAajNR0CihUf9aIvVX45JLNmAXh8Rivp1xH4CXfYU9vyyFfXDztbcgAzF_MuoAMHsHo4jBhyphenhyphenqz7nSx9sbAxIKY/s1600/Voyager+1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlW0kxaKqmTf7n20fBi-NlVHcDRNJqyAv9IfBDtEwY5K0ReZF1HHWOzrAAajNR0CihUf9aIvVX45JLNmAXh8Rivp1xH4CXfYU9vyyFfXDztbcgAzF_MuoAMHsHo4jBhyphenhyphenqz7nSx9sbAxIKY/s320/Voyager+1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Voyager 1 (artist depiction)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Mankind is about the leave the solar system. Well, sort of
anyway. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_1">Voyager 1</a>, the space probe launched by NASA over 35 years ago, has
reached a point in space about 18.5 billion miles from the sun, give or take. NASA,
which still monitors and communicates with the probe, <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/voyager/voyager20121203.html">announced earlier this week</a> that Voyager 1 has entered a region of space called the “magnetic highway”
a boundary area where highly charged particles from deep space interact with
solar particles. This region is very close to what’s been termed the
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliopause_%28astronomy%29#Heliopause">heliopause</a>, the very outside edge of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliosphere">heliosphere</a>, which is (the
heliosphere) the bubble of space where the Sun’s solar wind dominates the
background particles that permeate space. The heliosphere is used by
cosmologists to demarcate our solar system from interstellar space.<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
One way to conceptualize the heliosphere is to think of it like the solar
system’s version of Earth’s atmosphere, which encompasses us and separates us from
space. The further from the Earth’s surface you get the thinner the atmosphere
becomes until eventually it stops and space dominates. Same concept with the
heliosphere<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>,
the further from the Sun you get the less its radiation dominates space until
eventually its influence ceases altogether.
<br />
<br />
It may actually take Voyager 1 another year or two before it
technically reaches interstellar space, such is the vastness of space, but
still this is a good time to reflect on the spacecraft and just how far it’s
travelled.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Flights of Voyager
1 and 2</b>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlfnDBKdSkleeDjhCnDW_NK3_PyzgKUYq3Gm-rKNKEOtg6QyjKRQHVpZ7t4HmMQM8S4C0s38V_OaTPZEB9By21-ImTHgI-xvdqb-h_WSl5I3Cxe94nr1wdQaHoHD1ZCrlqqBy17LQoj5x4/s1600/Voyager_1_Jupiter_Io_Europa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlfnDBKdSkleeDjhCnDW_NK3_PyzgKUYq3Gm-rKNKEOtg6QyjKRQHVpZ7t4HmMQM8S4C0s38V_OaTPZEB9By21-ImTHgI-xvdqb-h_WSl5I3Cxe94nr1wdQaHoHD1ZCrlqqBy17LQoj5x4/s320/Voyager_1_Jupiter_Io_Europa.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jupiter with moon Io and Europa as photographed by Voyager 1</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
By a quirk of planetary orbital dynamics, in the late 1970s
and 1980s the outer planets were in a favorable alignment for a space probe to
observe each one at close range (they were all on the same side of the Sun).
The relative position of the planets would allow for each planet’s gravity to
be used to assist in redirecting the probe onto the next planet. This alignment was
realized in the late 1960s and astronomers knew that this favorable positioning wouldn’t occur again
for 175 years, so time was of the essence. Fortunately NASA, in the wake of the
concluded Apollo lunar missions, took advantage and developed two probes, Voyager
1 and its sister craft <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_2">Voyager 2</a>, which would be sent on close-up flybys of
each planet. Each probe weighed 1,500 pounds and was instrumented to observe
the planets in just about any way NASA engineers could want. NASA launched both
probes in late summer 1977.<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a> Initially, owing to post-Apollo budget
cuts the two spacecraft were only going to observe Jupiter and Saturn, and indeed
that’s all Voyager 1 did. It reached the Asteroid belt three months after
launch, and approached Jupiter in early 1979. At its closest approach it came nearer
the Jovian “surface” than the Moon is to Earth. Among other things, the Voyager
probes discovered that Jupiter had rings and that its moon Io was volcanically
active. Voyager 1 then headed on to Saturn. It flew by the planet in November
1980, just 77,000 miles above Saturn’s outer atmosphere. Voyager 1 not only
observed Saturn, but its moon Titan and the combined gravities of these two
bodies hurled the spacecraft (as planned) toward deep space. Its primary mission
was over.
<br />
<br />
I was born just before Voyager 1 reached Saturn; for all
intents and purposes, the probe has been racing out of the solar system for my
entire life.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a> More on this below.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglD6rhkYOtqNWiss3ryhUlezYADGrexN79CEhPHYF3RfcUrk5RrrK_3YgnTBji42-pRF0wPT6NXKA7R-DpGRazL22jcKyAg6eTVvAUPvEwpzBSNPHyJ8bgBf8OOqzyAdS6XMucJ05U0-U0/s1600/Voyager+2+Neptune.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglD6rhkYOtqNWiss3ryhUlezYADGrexN79CEhPHYF3RfcUrk5RrrK_3YgnTBji42-pRF0wPT6NXKA7R-DpGRazL22jcKyAg6eTVvAUPvEwpzBSNPHyJ8bgBf8OOqzyAdS6XMucJ05U0-U0/s1600/Voyager+2+Neptune.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Neptune as seen by Voyager 2</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
After the success of Voyager 1, NASA decided to direct
Voyager 2 to Uranus and Neptune. Voyager 2 traveled slower than Voyager 1 (it
reached Jupiter shortly after Voyager 1 and Saturn about eight months after)
reaching Uranus in late 1985 and finally Neptune in mid-1989. To call the
missions a success would be an understatement. Along with valuable scientific data
about all of the gas giants, they provided gorgeous photographs. These are just
the type of results that both advance science and fire our imaginations, exciting
us to further explore and learn about space.
<br />
<br />
Both probes have enough power to operate until at least 2025.
After that, barring a collision with some interstellar object, they will
continue on into oblivion. Both probes include a Golden Disk that presents
information about Earth and mankind (including audio recordings). The chances
may be infinitesimal, but maybe sometime, millions and millions of years from
now and many many light-years away, some other intelligent species will find
these markers of man.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Lessons of
Voyager 1 for Deep Space Travel</b>
<br />
I've always been interested in the stark contrast between the realities of space and the fantastic ways that space travel is portrayed in science fiction. The journey of Voyager 1 illustrates this discrepancy. Voyager 1 is one of the fastest moving manmade objects. It’s
currently travelling away from the sun at more than 38,000 miles per hour,
that’s over 10.7 miles every second. Even at that speed it still took it 32
years to travel from Saturn to the edge of the solar system<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>, a distance of roughly
17.6 billion miles. The nearest star to Earth is Proxima Centauri, 4.24
light-years distant. A light-year is equivalent to about 5.87 trillion miles
(light travels at about 186,000 mi/s). 4.24 light-years is a bit less than 25
trillion miles. Don't bother trying to conceptualize this distance, it's far greater than anything we humans can relate to. At the current speed of Voyager 1, it would take the probe more
than 75,000 years to reach that star (and to be clear, it’s not headed towards
Proxima Centauri). That’s more than 1,000 lifetimes.<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
I highlight these huge numbers to show you just how
inconceivable it is for man to travel to another star system. The Apollo
missions used the Saturn V rocket to accelerate the lunar spacecraft to about
25,000 miles per hour (Earth’s escape velocity). This is as fast as man has
ever travelled, and had the astronauts been headed to Proxima Centauri instead
of the Moon, it would have taken 114,000 years. In fact had Apollo 11 been on a
mission to the stars when launched in July 1969, it would be about 9.5 billion
miles from Earth by now, barely half way out of the solar system. Double,
triple, multiply by tenfold the speed of human spacecraft and the time to
approach the nearest stars don’t get any more reasonable.
<br />
<br />
I’ve <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/04/men-in-space.html">written before about the questionable purpose of human spaceflight</a> beyond low Earth orbit. But while I think this debate is largely
academic (at least in the present fiscal climate), destinations like the Moon,
maybe Mars, and perhaps thinking more fancifully, some distant moon of Jupiter or
Saturn are at least thinkable. The simple reality of human existence and
mortality demonstrate that no one will ever leave our solar system.
<br />
<br />
The overwhelming odds are that for thousands or even millions
of years (or much longer) the Voyager spacecraft (along with the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pioneer_10">Pioneer</a> and
other distant probes) will transit through interstellar space, a virtual
emptiness, passing nothing of note and experiencing nothing worth remembering.
That’s no trip for humans to take and no place for humans to be.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> It worth a quick discussion of what exactly
comprises the solar system: There’s the Sun at the center with all of the
planets, moons, dwarf planets, asteroids, comets, and miscellaneous other space
objects that orbit the Sun. Less familiar, and well beyond the orbit of Neptune
is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuiper_belt">Kuiper belt</a>, which is like a much larger version of the Asteroid belt.
Beyond that is a less cohesive collection of objects called the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scattered_disc">Scattered disc</a>,
which is where most periodic comets are believed to originate. Beyond that are
the limits of the heliosphere, including the termination shock, heliosheath,
heliopause, “magnetic highway” and other boundaries that mark the progressive
decrease in the dominance of the Sun over surrounding space.
<br />
<br />
Beyond these traditional (and very distant) limits of the
solar system there other highly scattered objects like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/90377_Sedna">Sedna</a> (observed) and the
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oort_cloud">Oort Cloud</a> (hypothesized) that do/may orbit the sun over very long orbital
periods.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> This is a much simplified analogy. In reality
the heliosphere is more like a combination of our atmosphere and Earth’s
magnetic field, which is critical in deflecting solar radiation and is a
crucial boundary separating the Earth below from space beyond.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> Voyager 2 was actually launched two weeks
before Voyager 1.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> In 1990, Voyager 1 did take a long range
picture of all the planets together (excepting Mercury and Pluto, which was
still a planet then).
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> Voyager 1 picked up speed after it passed
Saturn (it stole some of Saturn gravitational energy), so it left Earth slower
than it’s travelling today.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> Using the biblical three score and ten years
definition of a lifetime.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-31237833195764720182012-11-28T12:26:00.000-05:002012-11-28T12:26:37.692-05:00The Greatest Tennis Player of All Time – Part 2<style>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWeU2Tvd7weXsFZHtcAcn8zVxgAUL7q89sk8-JSXOwQX97QJCRmvhOAKluNfMVLCGq7I0Y6fYd07njhoZ0mDLGeuykFZZmRH1jPnIqXUENy825azXtEsISkPtrPFbImGG0iB39D98Ygvp5/s1600/Roger-Federer-Number-1-Trophy-Swiss-Indoors-2011-e1323992450597.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWeU2Tvd7weXsFZHtcAcn8zVxgAUL7q89sk8-JSXOwQX97QJCRmvhOAKluNfMVLCGq7I0Y6fYd07njhoZ0mDLGeuykFZZmRH1jPnIqXUENy825azXtEsISkPtrPFbImGG0iB39D98Ygvp5/s320/Roger-Federer-Number-1-Trophy-Swiss-Indoors-2011-e1323992450597.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
In <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-greatest-tennis-player-of-all-time.html">Part 1</a>, I discussed a quantitative approach to
determining the greatest tennis player of all time and counted down players 18
through 11. Here in Part 2 I want to complete the countdown from 10 through 1,
the GOAT. But first, a brief recap of how the rankings were determined.
<br />
<br />
Players were awarded points for their Open Era
accomplishments, focusing on time spent ranked number 1, grand slam tournament
success, and overall match wins. Players were awarded bonus points for notable
achievements like winning multiple grand slams in a single season or
accomplishing the career grand slam. The specific formula is discussed in
detail in <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-greatest-tennis-player-of-all-time.html">Part 1</a>.
<br />
<br />
Here’s how the players were ranked 18 through 11:<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
18. Jim Courier – 211 total points,
<br />
17. Lleyton Hewitt – 211,
<br />
16. John Newcombe – 237,
<br />
15. Ilie Nastase – 287,
<br />
14. Mats Wilander – 288,
<br />
13. Novak Djokovic – 295,
<br />
12. Boris Becker – 306,
<br />
11. Guillermo Vilas – 316.
<br />
<br />
On to the rest of the list.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Greatest Players
of All Time (Numbers 10 through 1)</b>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">10. Stefan Edberg</b>
(1983-96)
<br />
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When I think of Stefan Edberg I picture a suave,
blond-haired Swede wearing a sweater vest on court and putting away an easy
volley as cool as a cucumber, no sweat on his brow. This isn’t right of course
because what Edberg really was was an assassin; perhaps the last of the great
pure serve-and-volleyers,<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a> those players who put relentless pressure on their
opponents with their net rushing and precise volleys. (It also wasn’t true that
Edberg was a super cool Nordic sort, my memory of pretentious sweater vests may
be entirely wrong and his penchant for ugly shirts and un-hiply tucking his
shirt into his shorts is apparent, see the picture on the right for an
example.) Edberg’s career closely shadowed his flashier rival Boris Becker, but
by almost any measure, Edberg was more successful. He turned out to be the
last in the lineage of dominant Swedish players that included Bjorn Borg and
Mats Wilander before him.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">327</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 72
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 2 (1990-91)
<br />
Grand Slams: 6 titles / 5 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 42
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 806 (0.749)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Edberg won the Australian
Open, Wimbledon, and U.S. Open two times apiece. He made one French Open final
in 1989 and lost a famous match to 17-year-old Michael Chang in five sets
(after leading two sets to one). He was that close to being only the fifth man
in the Open Era (and second at that time) to win the career grand slam.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1zXovWpHVk&feature=relmfu">1992 U.S. Open Final</a>. Edberg’s last grand
slam victory came at the expense of a young Pete Sampras at the 1992 U.S. Open.
I remember watching that match (when I was first getting into the sport) and
being impressed by the tenacity and confidence that Edberg used to subdue his
younger and more talented opponent. He came back to win the last three sets
after dropping the first, and it seemed that by the end he had broken the
spirit of the American. Edberg would remain in the top 10 for a couple of more
years, but never again win a big tournament.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">9. Rod Laver</b>
(1962-79)
<br />
Rod Laver is the epitome of a player whose accomplishments
are obscured by playing before the Open Era. As an amateur in 1962 he won the
calendar year grand slam. Having nothing left to prove among amateurs, he turned pro and
didn’t compete in another grand slam until the French Open in 1968 (where he lost the
final to Ken Rosewall). Then he promptly won the next five grand slams,
including all four in 1969 – his second calendar year grand slam and the only
one of the Open Era. All told he won 11 grand slams (6 as an amateur). How many
would he have won had he played in them in the five seasons
between 1963 and ’67, eight, ten, twelve more? In just the Open Era, less than
half his career and only a fraction of his peak, he still gets enough points to
rank ninth on this list. We can never know, but if the Open Era had started
five years sooner, or Rod Laver come along five years later, he could very well
be regarded by everyone as the clear greatest player of all time.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">351</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 0
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 3 (1968-70)
<br />
Grand Slams: 5 titles / 1 final
<br />
Career Titles (all): 42
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 392 (0.798)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: All told Rod Laver won 200
tournaments over the full length of his career. These are split between his
amateur and professional days, and some are not officially counted as tour
wins, but it’s the most tournament wins in history.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvpckZmLaEc">1969 U.S. Open Final</a>. Laver rolled over
countryman Tony Roche (the Australians really did dominate the sport in the 50s
and 60s) winning the last three sets easily after dropping a long first set. In
doing so he accomplished what Jimmy Connors, Bjorn Borg, John McEnroe, Pete
Sampras, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic never could, win four
consecutive grand slams (let alone win them all in the same year).
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">8. Andre Agassi</b>
(1986-2006)
<br />
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If Rod Laver is the epitome of a player who lost out by
turning professional, then Andre Agassi is the epitome of a player who lost out
by not being professional enough. Anybody who saw Agassi play knows he was one
of the purest ball-strikers ever. He could stand right up on the baseline, take the ball on the rise, hit clean and very hard, all the while running his opponents into the
ground. When he focused on his game and his talent, which was spotty, especially
during the mid-90s, he was the best player in the world. He rededicated himself
to tennis in his late 20s and played to a high level well into his mid-30s
until injury forced him to retire after the 2006 U.S. Open. He remains the
oldest player ever to be ranked number 1 (33 years old in 2003). His full
career is undeniably impressive, but we’re left to wonder how much greater it
could have been had he been as dedicated to his talent as, say, his rival
Sampras.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">482</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 101
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 1 (1999)
<br />
Grand Slams: 8 titles / 7 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 60
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 870 (0.760)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: With his victory in the 1999
French Open, Agassi not only achieved the career grand slam, but also the
career “golden slam” so named because he had also won the 1996 Olympics singles
tournament. At that time the only other player to have accomplished the feat
was his future wife Steffi Graf (who won a calendar year golden slam – all four
grand slams and the Olympic gold – in 1988). Rafael Nadal joined this club
after his U.S. Open victory in 2010.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqWCnYgWEJs">1999 French Open Final</a>. Agassi’s rededication
to tennis finally came to fruition when he won the 1999 French Open. He had
lost the 1990 and 1991 finals to journeyman Andres Gomez and lower ranked
American Jim Courier, respectively. The first, he later revealed in his
autobiography, because he was afraid his weave was going to fall off during the
match (that should tell you a lot about the style-over-substance flakiness of
the young Agassi). Back then Agassi was seen as the next big thing. By 1999 he
was seen as a has-been. But he surprised everyone and won the tournament (although he had to come from two sets down in the final against Andrei Medvedev),
became the first man since Rod Laver to achieve a career grand slam, and
reignited his career. He would finish 1999 ranked number 1, win four more
majors, and become a paragon of fitness and focus.
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">7. Bjorn Borg</b>
(1973-83)
<br />
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Tennis has always been a sport that skews young. Players turn
professional while still teenagers and peak in the early and mid-20s.<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3 </span></sup></b></a></a> And
this seems especially true for the greatest players, consider that 10 of the 18
players on this list won their first grand slam before their 21<sup>st</sup>
birthday. Bjorn Borg may have been the most precocious of all these phenoms as
he won 16 titles before he turned 20 (Rafael Nadal equaled this feat 30 years
later). Borg effectively retired in early 1982 (he played a couple more
tournaments in the following couple of years) at the young age of 25. It was a
shock to the tennis world, an icon retiring in his prime. It would be
like Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal retiring now.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a> Despite putting down the racket so
young, Borg still won 11 grand slams and 63 career titles (more than Andre
Agassi amassed in 20 years), and he retired with the best career winning
percentage of any player 0.827 (also currently matched by Nadal, the parallels
between these two go on and on, see more on this below). Borg was also known
for his cool demeanor, and I don’t just mean relaxed and composed, I mean
really <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">cool</i>, his was an idol, a
tennis rock star. Tennis lost a lot when he walked away from the sport.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">493</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 109
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 2 (1979-80)
<br />
Grand Slams: 11 titles / 5 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 63
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 608 (0.827)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Borg won both the French Open
and Wimbledon for three consecutive years from 1978 through 1980. And this is
in an era when clay courts and grass courts offered wildly different conditions
and favored different playing styles. The clay was super slow and the grass was
super slick (and at the time grass courts were notoriously uneven and
unpredictable). This feat wasn’t duplicated until 2008, by you guessed it,
Rafael Nadal. Then it was done in 2009 by Roger Federer, and then again by
Nadal in 2010.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-BwXwUzMLo">1980 Wimbledon Final</a>. The 1980 Wimbledon
Final has long been lauded as one of, if not the greatest match ever played.
Upstart John McEnroe battled four-time defending champion Borg for five sets,
including a classic, dramatic 34 point fourth set tiebreak that McEnroe won.
But Borg the cool-headed champion wouldn’t give up the title. He won virtually
every point on serve in the fifth set and finally subdued a tiring McEnroe 8-6.
It was the peak of his tennis career and the last time he would beat McEnroe in
a grand slam final.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">6. Rafael Nadal</b>
(2002-current)
<br />
Rafael Nadal is like an amped up 21<sup>st</sup> century
version of Borg. Like Borg he’s impossibly fit and fast, he plays impenetrable
defense, he prowls and pounces from deep behind the baseline. Like Borg he <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">dominates</i> on slow red clay but has
adapted to quicker, slicker grass. Nadal was also a teenage phenom, winning 11
titles in 2005, the year he turned 19, including his first grand slam at the
French Open. But if anything Nadal is even better, he’s a bit stronger and a
bit faster and a bit fitter. He’s even more dominant on clay. He’s adapted his
game even more for fast surfaces winning on hard courts and grass. He hits the
ball harder and with heavier topspin. He’s the essence of embodied will. All of
this adds up to a fearsome and remarkably effective tennis player. There was
talk a couple of years ago of Nadal one day surpassing the accomplishments of
his great rival Roger Federer, but the rise of Novak Djokovic and Nadal’s
lingering, indeed worsening knee troubles have cast a large shadow over his
future prospects. He could continue to win for many more years and climb higher
on these rankings, or the best parts of his career could be behind him. Like
Borg before him, Nadal could be facing an early retirement (albeit his would be
forced and not chosen), but again tennis would be the worse for his absence.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">505</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 102
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 2 (2008, 2010)
<br />
Grand Slams: 11 titles / 5 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 50
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 583 (0.827)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Nadal captured the career
grand slam at the young age of just 24 when he won the U.S. Open in 2010,
becoming the youngest professional ever to accomplish the feat (Laver was the
same age but an amateur when he won his first grand slam in 1962).
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aem72ucNPZo">2008 Wimbledon Final</a>. The Nadal-Borg
parallels continue with the 2008 Wimbledon Final, but reversed. In 2008 Nadal
was trying to beat five time defending champion Federer just like John McEnroe
was trying to beat five time defending champion Borg in the 1981 final. Borg
had fought off a spirited challenge from McEnroe in the 1980 final just as
Federer had fought off a vigorous challenge from Nadal in 2007 (more on this
match below). And in 2008, just like McEnroe in 1981, Nadal finally triumphed
and with it took over the title of the world’s top player. The 2008 Wimbledon
Final is rightly remembered as perhaps the greatest match ever played,
certainly the best since Borg beat McEnroe on the same court in 1980, and Nadal
won. In a match that lasted five hours, included two long rain delays, and
ended in the dark, Nadal overcame every obstacle thrown at him that day.
Federer’s early and typically brilliant play, lousy weather, a spirited (and
for another man disheartening) Federer comeback, and constantly having to play
from behind in the long fifth set. Nadal’s victory was years in the making and
no matter his future triumphs he will never have a better day.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">5. John McEnroe</b> (1978-92)
<br />
John McEnroe was the most successful serve and volleyer of
the Open Era. His style was the polar opposite of his rivals Borg, Ivan Lendl,
and Jimmy Connors, all dedicated baseliners. And for this reason, his stark
contrast to the other top men, he was often described as a beautiful and
brilliant player, someone who saw the tennis court differently and made shots
no one would dream of. Many of McEnroe’s ardent supporters will howl that he
comes in lower on this list than some of his rivals. And they might be right,
and this goes back to a point that I made in Part 1, that these rankings only
measure results, they don’t capture elements of the game peripheral to results,
like style and originality. One thing that is worth pointing out about McEnroe
is that like a star the shines brighter, his star also faded quicker. He was a
dominant champion from 1981 through 1984, but after that he slipped. At 26 his
best days were behind him. Maybe it was burnout, or the racket revolution that
changed the sport in the mid-80s, but McEnroe had the shortest peak period, five or six years, of any of the all time greats.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">529</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 170
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 4 (1981-84)
<br />
Grand Slams: 7 titles / 4 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 77
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 875 (0.816)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: John McEnroe’s 1984 season was one
of the finest any man has ever had, he won his first 42 matches, 82 of
85 matches overall, 13 titles, two grand slams (Wimbledon and the U.S. Open),
and was one set away from winning the French Open (by far the closest he ever
got to that title).
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1d-cdiTHPmE">1981 Wimbledon Final</a>. McEnroe lost the famous
1980 Wimbledon Final, but quickly avenged that defeat winning the 1980 U.S.
Open – over Borg – a couple of months later. By 1981 Wimbledon it seemed that
his time to pass Borg had arrived. Borg won the first set, but McEnroe took the
next three. With the win he took over the top ranking from Borg and never
looked back. He would beat Borg in the 1981 U.S. Open making it three straight
grand slam wins over the Swede.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">4. Pete Sampras</b>
(1988-2002)
<br />
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If John McEnroe’s play was considered inventive and unique,
Pete Sampras’ was considered (by some) overwhelming and final. Final because
his ferocious serve seemed to end points before they were even started.
Overwhelming because his forehand, volleys, serve, return, his whole game, was
designed breakdown his opponents. Every once in a while a rival, a Pat Rafter
or Richard Krajicek, or more often Andre Agassi, would beat Pete at a big
moment, but not often. He won a then record 14 grand slam titles against only
four finals losses, easily the best Open Era winning percentage for any man who
has appeared in at least 10 grand slam finals. Pete also finished first in the
rankings for a record six years (consecutive from 1993 through 1998). It seems like his reputation has dimmed a bit in the decade
since his retirement, which is
strange because at his peak in the mid-90s I felt that no one stood a
chance against him. It remains true that if you could pick one player to
play and win one match for you, you’d be hard pressed to pass over Sampras.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">651</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 286
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 6 (1993-98)
<br />
Grand Slams: 14 titles / 4 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 64
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 762 (0.774)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Sampras played in and won
seven Wimbledon finals, equaled in the modern era by only Roger Federer, but he
actually appeared in even more U.S. Open finals, eight, winning five, including
his first grand slam in 1990 (age 19) and last in 2002 (age 31).
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BXqVSHBVEE">1993 Wimbledon Final</a>. Pete Sampras and number
1 are so synonymous that it seems like he was always at the top of the
rankings. Kind of like how a great song seems like it’s always existed after
you’ve heard it only a few times. But heading into Wimbledon in 1993 Sampras
was still just a one-time grand slam champion and had only recently risen to
the top rankings (for the first time). It was time to step up and become the
true top player. And step up he did, beating defending champion Agassi in the
quarterfinals, three-time champion Boris Becker in the semi-finals, and former
number 1 Jim Courier for the title. After the win Sampras never looked back
leaving the rest of the tour far in his wake.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">3. Ivan Lendl</b>
(1978-94)
<br />
David Foster Wallace joked that watching Ivan Lendl play was
like watching <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Triumph of the Will</i> in
3D. What he was getting at was the Lendl’s power baseline game was overwhelming
and effective and generally unsatisfying for the aesthetically minded. This is
perhaps why Lendl, who complemented his game with a dour (some my say blank)
demeanor, is probably the least appreciated of the great champions. This is
unfortunate because in his own way Lendl was as dominant in the mid-80s as
Sampras was in the mid-90s or even Federer in the mid-00s. His style
anticipated the baseline play that is common today. He came to dominate rivals
like Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, and Mats Wilander. He was ranked number 1 for
the third most weeks in history, won more titles in than any man in the Open
Era except for Connors, and reached more grand slam finals than anyone but
Roger Federer. Lendl also lost more grand slam finals than anyone (11 of 19),
including six of his first seven. Maybe this is another reason that he’s
underappreciated, more often than not he fell short in the biggest moments.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">677</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 270
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 4 (1985-87, 1989)
<br />
Grand Slams: 8 titles / 11 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 94
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 1,071 (0.818)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Lendl owns some obscure and
impressive streaks, such as his eight consecutive U.S. Open finals appearances
(three wins) from 1982 through 1989 and nine consecutive Masters Gran Prix
tournaments (year-end tournament) finals from 1980 through 1988.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOXtPrhkQUw&playnext=1&list=PL44826CECC788BC70&feature=results_main">1984 French Open Final</a>. Lendl carried the
rather inglorious distinction of losing his first four grand slam finals into
the 1984 French Open Final. He faced John McEnroe who was riding his
season-opening 42 match winning streak. Through two sets it looked like Lendl
was headed to five straight grand slam finals loses and McEnroe to 43 straight
wins. McEnroe won them routinely 6-3, 6-2. Lendl took the third set 6-4, but
trailed McEnroe 2-4 in the fourth. McEnroe was just two games away from
victory. It didn’t happen, McEnroe’s level dropped and Lendl found his game. He
broke back and eventually took the set 7-5. The fifth set was close, but Lendl
broke McEnroe at 6-5 to take his first title. 1984 was McEnroe’s year, but the
rest of the decade pretty much belonged to Lendl. He would win seven more grand
slams through 1990.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2. Jimmy Connors</b>
(1972-96)
<br />
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Jimmy Connors places so high on this ranking because he
was so good for so long. Connors was ranked in the top 10 for 16 consecutive
years between 1973 and 1988. He won over 1,200 matches (and won 82% of his
matches). When you spend time studying the greatest players you realize that
trends recur and styles of play are carried along from one generation to
another. Connors was known in his day as the toughest competitor on tour,
refusing to back down or concede even a single point. You can see this fighting
spirit in many champions that followed, Michael Chang, Lleyton Hewitt, and most
notably Rafael Nadal. Perhaps Connors’ most outstanding tennis skill was his
phenomenal return of serve. He carried the title of the greatest returner,
which eventually passed to Andre Agassi, and now (by general consensus) his
owned by Novak Djokovic. And of course Connors’ long career was followed by
similar longevity by Agassi and the current career of Roger Federer, which
shows no signs of ending any time soon. The careers of these players overlapped
and you can trace an unbroken line from Connors’ debut in 1972 through Federer today,
a stretch of 40 years in just three players. All these points noted, many who
watched them compete considered Jimmy Connors to be inferior to both his
younger rivals Borg and McEnroe. This may have been true, those two may have
been more talented, but a close examination of the record reveals that Connors’
achievements are as good as anyone, with the exception of the number 1 player
on these rankings.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">734</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 268
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 5 (1974-78)
<br />
Grand Slams: 8 titles / 7 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 109
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 1,241 (0.818)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Connors owns the Open Era
record for the most singles titles (109) and match wins (1,241), won over a
career that spanned 25 seasons. I feel confident in writing that these records
will never be surpassed.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YjomkT5E4A">1982 Wimbledon Final</a>. Jimmy Connors dominated
the mid-70s, but with the rise of first Bjorn Borg and later John McEnroe, it
seemed that Connors’ time had passed. Heading into the 1982 Wimbledon Final
Connors hadn’t won a grand slam since the U.S. Open back in 1978. He faced the
defending champion and heavy favorite John McEnroe, who had advanced to the
final losing only one set. Connors was down two sets to one, but won the fourth
set in a tiebreak and the fifth set 6-4. The win was improbable, coming eight
years after his only previous Wimbledon title, and propelled him back (later in
the summer) to the number 1 ranking for the first time in over three years.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1. Roger Federer</b>
(1998-current)
<br />
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What is there to say about Roger Federer? He’s by far the
most successful tennis player of the Open Era: most grand slams titles (17); most
weeks ranked number 1 (302); a career grand slam; three separate years winning
three grand slams, and two others winning two; 10 consecutive grand slam finals
reached, 23 consecutive grand slam semi-finals reached, 34 consecutive grand
slam quarterfinals reached (and counting); the best four year stretch in tennis
history (2004-07), to name only the most obvious measures. Much of the general
sporting attention given to tennis is focused on Federer, and for good reason,
he’s had a profound effect on the entire sport. And he continues to have an outsized
effect even though his best years are in the past. Consider, in era when all
his rivals are a full tennis generation younger (Nadal, Djokovic, Andy Murray,
Juan Martin Del Potro), he continues to perform at the top of the game. Since
he lost his stranglehold on the top of the game, when Nadal beat him in the
2008 Wimbledon Final, he’s won five grand slams (just one less than Nadal and
one more than Djokovic), finished 2009 ranked number 1, improbably regained the
number 1 ranking this past summer, and won dozens of titles. He’s stayed at the
top for all the reasons that fans watch tennis, because of his skill, because
of the dizzying repertoire of shots, because he still thrives on competition,
because he loves the game of tennis. And it’s for these reasons that tennis
fans adore him and why he’ll remain the most popular and appreciated player on
tour for however long he continues to play. These sentences may sound a bit
like hero worship, and maybe they are, but I’m a tennis lover and how can I not
venerate a man who made watching tennis so much fun?
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">849</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 302
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 5 (2004-07, 2009)
<br />
Grand Slams: 17 titles / 7 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 76
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 878 (0.816)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Federer boasts too many
achievements to list, but one that’s worth noting and isn’t often mentioned is
his remarkable 75-10 record (0.882 winning percentage) against top 10 ranked
opponents from late 2003 through 2007. That’s dominance.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zd8mPKMhFww">2007 Wimbledon Final</a>. Given all of Roger’s
great achievements – and when it comes to notable achievements, no man has more
than Roger Federer – it seems restrictive to list only one iconic moment in his
career, but that’s my problem because I chose this format. Having to pick one,
I’ll go with the 2007 Wimbledon Final when he defeated Rafael Nadal in a long,
hard-fought five set match. Certainly Federer has had more noteworthy wins, like
his milestone 2009 French Open and Wimbledon triumphs, or even his grand slam
breakthrough at Wimbledon in 2003, but the 2007 final displayed so many of the
facets that make Roger Federer the preeminent champion that he is. One that day Nadal played a great match, a reality that must have been as clear to Federer as the sunny July sky over Centre Court; he was in for a battle. Federer had to use
all of his skill, and fighting spirit, and tennis guile to eke out the first
and third sets in tie-breaks. Nadal won the second and fourth sets much more
easily. As the match moved into the fifth set the momentum seemed to be behind
Nadal and a feeling crept over the encounter: this just might be a changing of
the guard. Early in the set Nadal pushed Federer to the brink, earning break
points in two of Federer’s service games. Each time Federer hammered an unreturnable
serve or made a clutch winning groundstroke. He toughed his way through the
games and kept his nose out in front. Then, leading 3-2 with Nadal serving, the
Federer brilliance arrived. He broke Nadal with a series of breathtaking points
– Federer Moments as David Foster Wallace would say – heavy winning forehands, sharp
angles, changes in pace and direction, and hitting lines. He won the last three
games with shot-making and tactics and surprise. He had staved off the
challenge<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>
and in the process showed that he is at the core a fighter and champion (and
not just a tennis magician).
<br />
<br />
And this is a good place to close this list of the greatest
of all time. I wrote earlier that we measure tennis players by their skill,
their will, and their minds (as it relates to playing tennis, of course).
Federer displayed them all at the 2007 Wimbledon Final, but that’s what you’d
expect from the best in a high pressure, high intensity moment. We watch sports
to be entertained, and in the hope that occasionally we’ll actually be captivated.
There will probably never be a definitive list of the greatest tennis players
of all time, but the men on this list have given us so many – and all the best
– of the entertaining, memorable, captivating, and transcendent moments in
their sport. That seems as good a definition of greatness as we need for this
context and a good enough reason to include each man here.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Greatest Tennis Players
of All Time (Open Era) – Current Rankings</b> (active players in bold):
<br />
<br />
<b>1. Roger Federer</b> - 849 total points
<br />
2. Jimmy Connors - 734
<br />
3. Ivan Lendl - 677
<br />
4. Pete Sampras - 651
<br />
5. John McEnroe - 529
<br />
<b>6. Rafael Nadal - 505</b>
<br />
7. Bjorn Borg - 493
<br />
8. Andre Agassi - 482
<br />
9. Rod Laver - 351
<br />
10. Stefan Edberg - 327
<br />
11. Guillermo Vilas - 316
<br />
12. Boris Becker - 306
<br />
<b>13. Novak Djokovic - 295</b>
<br />
14. Mats Wilander - 288
<br />
15. Ilie Nastase - 287
<br />
16. John Newcombe - 237
<br />
17. Lleyton Hewitt - 211
<br />
18. Jim Courier - 211
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> If starting the countdown at 18 seems like an
arbitrary number to you, you’re right, it is. But as noted in Part 1, I decided
to only include players who amassed at least 200 points during their careers,
and only 18 men have done that during the Open Era.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> Fans of Patrick Rafter (and I was one) may
disagree, but as good as Rafter was, he wasn’t of the class of Edberg. Pete
Sampras and other big servers frequently serve-and-volleyed, but that wasn’t
the core of their game.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> This may be changing, for instance the average
age of this year’s year-end top 10 is 27.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> Consider that the later possibility, Rafael
Nadal retiring, must have been a real fear to his many fans as his knee
injuries kept him off the court for the second half of 2012. They can all
breathe easy as he has announced his competitive return for late December.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> Temporarily as it turned out. Nadal famously
turned the tables on Federer in the unforgettable 2008 Wimbledon Final. See
Nadal’s "Iconic Moment" above.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-41431647322269760922012-11-26T22:54:00.000-05:002012-11-28T12:36:34.451-05:00The Greatest Tennis Player of All Time – Part 1<style>
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The tennis tour has entered its short end-of-year hiatus<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>.
For the first season since 2003, the just completed (2012) tennis season was
highly competitive throughout, with no dominant player. Four different men won
the four grand slams<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>, and the remaining major tournaments were
snatched up by the top five players. It says something that the man who won the
most matches and tournaments (76 and 7), fifth ranked David Ferrer, was no
one’s pick as the player of the year. In the end, Novak Djokovic was just a bit
better than Roger Federer and Andy Murray and finished top ranked for the
second consecutive year. Rafael Nadal, despite not playing for the last six
months due to a career-threatening knee injury, still finished ranked fourth.
It all sets up for an interesting 2013, a season that will kick-off in just
five weeks.
<br />
<br />
I thought this “off-season” break would be a good time to
debut my rankings of the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">G</b>reatest (male)
tennis players <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">O</b>f <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A</b>ll <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">T</b>ime; the proverbial GOATs. In tennis, perhaps more than any other
sport, there is long and heated discussion among fans and commentators about
who’s the best ever. The entire sport is based on rankings; tournaments are
structured on a hierarchy that descends from number 1. And unlike team
sports, the discussion of rankings, of greatness, can be focused on each man.
Absent are the nuances that make ranking teams (and players in team sports) so
difficult, subtleties of teamwork, synergies between players, the interplay of
complex team-based tactics and collective talent. No, instead, in tennis it seems
that the play of each man – his skill, his will, his mind – are all on display.
It’s all there to be witnessed and all measured in his results. There aren't any ambiguities. Points are
awarded for every result, and rankings listed. And so it follows that if we can
rank tennis players at any given time then we should be able to rank them over
all times. We should be able to identify the greatest of all time.
<br />
<br />
Of course this assertion presumes a lot, or stated
differently, it ignores a lot of complicating and uncomfortable factors. Factors
like changes in racket and string technology over time; varying court surfaces,
qualities, and speeds; the regularly changing structure of the tennis tour and the tournaments
that make up the yearly calendar; and of course improving fitness and athleticism,
and a general broadening and deepening of the professional tennis field. All
these things make it problematic to compare, say, the circa 1969 wood-racket-wielding
Rod Laver, charging the net on a fast and dodgy grass court, on the one hand,
with the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-ei0g_AKCM">2006 version of Roger Federer</a> and his hi-tech composite racket
whacking heavily top-spinned groundstrokes from the baseline of a slow hard
court, one the other. This comparison is at minimum a challenge and perhaps impossible.
Laver and Federer will never play one another, so we’ll never really know who
the better of the two is. So we should just get this out front and center:
determining the greatest player of all time, the real GOAT, is a fan’s fantasy.
We can make arguments, but we’ll never have a final answer.
<br />
<br />
But it’s still fun to have the discussion and to make a
case, so in that spirit I’ve developed a quantifiable approach to determine the
greatest player of all time.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A Quantitative
Approach</b>
<br />
Just this past year the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-ei0g_AKCM"><i>Tennis Channel</i> presented a list</a> of the 100 greatest players of all time (men and
women), based on career achievements and the perspectives and opinions of
tennis players, journalists, and historians. Similar lists have been compiled
in the past by <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tennis</i> magazine other tennis-
and sports-related websites and publications. These lists are always
qualitative in nature. They attempt to rank players and identify the best based
on a range of factors from day-in-day-out results to stylistic innovations, and
influence on the sport, which is all fine by me. If we concede that identifying
a GOAT is by nature difficult to impossible, then trying to balance all the
factors in a qualitative measure is a reasonable approach. But for a numbers
oriented person like me, it’s a whole lot less fun, and well, imprecise.<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>
So I’ve come up with an approach that considers results and rankings over a
full career to rank players and identify the one and only GOAT.
<br />
<br />
Before I lay out the factors that go into my formula, a few
ground rules:
<br />
<ul>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The list is
restricted to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Era#Open_Era">Open Era</a> only</b>, the period that started at the 1968 French Open when professional players were permitted to play in the
grand slam tournaments. It’s during the Open Era when all the best players,
amateur and professional alike, played in the sport’s biggest tournaments.
Before then grand slam results were skewed because many of the best (read:
professional) players weren’t there to compete for the titles. I don’t want to
gloss over this point, some great players (e.g., Bill Tilden, Don Budge, Poncho
Gonzalez) played entirely or mostly before the Open Era and they are completely
excluded from my rankings. For players whose careers spanned the Open Era, only
the Open Era accomplishments are counted. This is in effect a list of the
greatest players of the Open Era.</li>
<li>The list includes if and for how long a player was ranked
number 1, but the rankings didn’t start until 1973, so for the period from 1968
until 1973, the top ranked player (whoever that was at any time) loses out in
my system. There’s nothing that can be done about that, though I have
identified who would qualify as the year-end number 1 based on the season long
results.</li>
<li>This list is of the top men players. A similar list, using
the same approach could be made for women (I should probably dedicate a post to
the greatest women players at some point).</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Formula</b>
<br />
We’re discussing the very best players, so three broad
categories of achievement capture, I think, who’s should be considered as among
the best. These are (in no particular order) the time spent ranked number 1,
success in grand slam tournaments, and “winning” in the general sense. Number 1
ranking is important because a player can hardly be considered the best if he isn't the best at any given time. Grand slam success is important because the
best players win the most prestigious, coveted titles, and overall winning is
important because that’s what champions do.
<br />
<br />
So I’m breaking these three broad categories into 12
specific measures, with points assigned for the discrete accomplishments within
each measure. They are:
<br />
<ul>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Number 1 Ranking</b>
– was the player ever ranked number 1 (10 points),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Weeks Ranked Number 1</b>
– the longer a player was ranked number 1, the longer they could stay above the
rest of the field, the more credit they deserve (2 points for every five weeks
a player is ranked number 1),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Year End Number 1 </b>–
there is special recognition for being the year-end number 1 because that
player was by definition the best player of the season (10 points for each year
ending number 1),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Grand Slam Titles </b>–
winning one of the four grand slam tournaments is the highest accomplishment
for a tennis player. Each one is highly coveted and very hard to win (seven,
best-of-five set matches). These tournaments are also the only tennis
achievements that resonate in the larger sports culture. Further, it's only the grand slams that can be compared over time, as most other tournaments come in and out of existence over relatively short periods of time, especially in the pre-ATP Tour era (15 points for each
title),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Grand Slam Finals </b>–
just making a grand slam final is noteworthy, and I think it’s fair to say that
appearing in a grand slam final is a greater achievement than winning a lesser
tournament (5 points for each grand slam final loss),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Calendar Year Grand
Slam</b> – winning all four grand slams in one year is the greatest
accomplishment in tennis and deserves bonus points for the difficulty of the
feat and the historic nature of the accomplishment (50 points for each calendar
year grand slam),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">3 Grand Slams in One Year
</b>– winning three of the four grand slams in one year is a rare feat (at
least until recently) and demonstrates clear dominance over the rest of the
tennis field. It deserves bonus points for the difficulty of the feat (25
points for each year winning three grand slams),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2 Grand Slams in One
Year </b>– winning two of the four grand slams in one year is a clear
indication of superior play and deserves bonus points for the difficulty of the
feat (10 points for each year winning two grand slams),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Career Grand Slam </b>–
winning all four grand slams at least once is a very rare feet (almost as rare
as winning a calendar year grand slam) and deserves bonus points for the
difficulty and historic nature of the accomplishment (50 points for a career
grand slam),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Titles </b>– winning
tournaments (other than the grand slams) is what the best players do (3 points
for each (non-grand slam) title),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Career Match Wins </b>–
winning matches is the core of being a great player (1 point for every 20 match
wins),</li>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Career Winning
Percentage</b> – the best players should win a high percentage of their matches
(1 point for a 0.700 winning percentage, with one additional point for each
0.010 increment over 0.700).</li>
</ul>
<br />
Add all the points up and you get a player’s total; the
higher the score, the better. I make no claims that this is a definitive
inventory of the elements that should go into determining the best of all time,
or that the points allocated for each measure are appropriate. The old axiom of
garbage in, garbage out should be heeded with any formulation like this; it has
to pass the sniff test. I think this approach is at least a reasonable start, but
let’s see how it computes for an individual player, and I’ll go ahead and pick
the current number 1 player, Novak Djokovic.
<br />
<br />
Novak Djokovic’s GOAT Points:
<br />
<ul>
<li>No. 1 Ranking: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">10
points</b> (he’s currently ranked No. 1),</li>
<li>Weeks Ranked No. 1: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">24.8
points</b> (he’ll have been ranked No. 1 for 62 weeks through the end of this
year),</li>
<li>Year End No. 1: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">20
points</b> (he’s been year-end No. 1 twice, 2011 and 2012),</li>
<li>Grand Slam Titles: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">75
points</b> (he’s won five grand slams),</li>
<li>Grand Slam Finals: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">20
points</b> (he’s appeared in four other grand slam finals),</li>
<li>Calendar Year Grand Slam: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">0 points</b> (no calendar year grand slam),</li>
<li>3 Grand Slams in One Year: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">25 points</b> (he won three grand slams in 2011),</li>
<li>2 Grand Slams in One Year: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">0 points</b> (he’s never won as many as two grand slams in any other
year),</li>
<li>Career Grand Slam: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">0
points</b> (Novak has never won French Open),</li>
<li>Titles: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">87 points</b>
(he has won 29 non-grand slam tournaments),</li>
<li>Career Match Wins: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">23
points</b> (he has won 469 matches over his career so far),</li>
<li>Career Winning Percentage: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">10 points</b> (he has a career 0.792 match winning percentage).</li>
</ul>
<br />
You add all of those points up and you get a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">total of 295 points</b> (rounding to the nearest
point). At the risk of taking some suspense out of this list, the total of 295
points put Djokovic thirteenth among Open Era players. That seems reasonable to
me. Certainly Djokovic has put himself into the discussion as one of the best
ever, but he hasn’t done enough just yet to be among the top 5 or even 10. (It’s
safe to say that baring major injury or some hard to imagine loss of form, he’ll
be climbing this list in the coming years.)
<br />
<br />
So, the formula passes the basic test of reasonability, I
applied it to every player who was ranked number 1 or won a grand slam in the
Open Era. The results make sense to me, but judge for yourself. Eighteen
players amassed at least 200 points (arbitrary number), so that’s where I’ll
start the countdown of the greatest players of all time.
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
Before we get to the list, I offer an important observation
about this ranking system. This approach rewards both high-level and long-term
success. The more wins, titles, weeks ranked number 1, etc., the higher a
player’s point total and the higher they will be ranked on the list. This
ranking system doesn’t reward qualitative greatness. A player may have played
brilliantly, may have appeared superior to his opponents, or to borrow some
inflated rhetoric, he may have displayed strokes of genius on the court. By the
eye that player may have appeared greater than others. That qualitative measure
isn’t captured here. For instance, for many people John McEnroe displayed
genius on court while Ivan Lendl displayed only consistent power. Many may
consider the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">style</i> of McEnroe to have
been superior to the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">style</i> of Lendl.
Tennis lends itself to the beautiful: in movement, in ball striking, in
shot-making. Tennis fans often love the style as much as the results. This
quantitative rankings approach is based solely on results, it’s indifferent to
style, indifferent to the many things that happen on court that aren’t measured
in the results. The reader is cautioned to consider the “blind” perspective of
these rankings as we countdown to the greatest of all time.
<br />
<br />
Okay, that’s enough background, on to the rankings.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Greatest Players
of All Time (Numbers 18 through 11)</b>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Honorable Mention:</b>
Among active players (who aren’t ranked in this list), only Andy Murray has
demonstrated a level of success that could get him onto this list before his
career is over. By this system his career points stand at 128, well behind each
of the 18 men listed below, but well within range of this group if he has a few
more good years (and wins some more grand slam tournaments). This list isn’t
static (it contains several active players after all), and other current or
future players will join it. But other than Murray, I don’t know who that might
be with the possible exception of Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">18. Jim Courier </b>(1988-2000)
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnnb3TuXiW9v9JdQ1SXEtTOklNy-tPfpsFvdjhXCJdhswVuMfLfDmWDmxbY_1bvkBREQVP5B0WVQXnphM3TzNL69fUNsN37wXXvKJ4dR6C9QHQru6MECM_0sQwo0M3jhaGwTisHkosoUca/s1600/jim+courier.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnnb3TuXiW9v9JdQ1SXEtTOklNy-tPfpsFvdjhXCJdhswVuMfLfDmWDmxbY_1bvkBREQVP5B0WVQXnphM3TzNL69fUNsN37wXXvKJ4dR6C9QHQru6MECM_0sQwo0M3jhaGwTisHkosoUca/s320/jim+courier.jpg" width="208" /></a></div>
Jim Courier was a hard hitting baseliner, perfectly
constructed for slow hard courts and even slower clay. His career hit a peak
from summer 1991 through summer 1993 when he made all seven of his grand slam
finals (winning four), and rising to number 1, including finishing 1992 as the
best player in the world (and starting a string of eight years with Americans
finishing at the top of the rankings). Courier had some decent moments after
1993, but his career never approach those heights and he couldn’t hang with his
fellow Americans Agassi and Sampras.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">211</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 58
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 1 (1992)
<br />
Grand Slams: 4 titles / 3 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 23
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 506 (0.681)
<br />
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Courier was the first of the
great wave of American players of the 1990s (which included Agassi, Pete
Sampras, Michael Chang) to be ranked number 1.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39MR-RgCzm8">1991 French Open Final</a>. Courier played
favorite and fellow American Andre Agassi in the final (Agassi was seeded
fourth while Courier was seeded ninth). He lost the first set 3-6, and fell
behind in the second set 1-3, and down another break point when rain came and
delayed the match. Courier was sharper when they returned and stormed back to
win the second set 6-4, but Agassi dominated the third, downing Courier 2-6. It
was then that Courier’s mental strength came to the fore. He quickly turned the
tables on Agassi, dominating the fourth set, winning 6-1, and at 4-4 in the
fifth set he earned the decisive service break. He held easy to win his first
grand slam, and the first of four he would win over the next year-and-a-half.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">17. Lleyton Hewitt </b>(1998-current)
<br />
Like Courier, Hewitt is a scrappy baseliner known for his
dogged style. He became the youngest player ever ranked number 1 in 2001 at age
20. Hewitt’s precise groundstrokes allowed him to dominate the tour from the
middle of 2001 through early 2003 when he won both of his grand slams. He
occupied the top of the rankings in the brief period after the decline of Pete
Sampras and the rise of Roger Federer. Unfortunately for Hewitt, once Federer
got his measure, his career was bound to be eclipsed. His dogged play continues
but bigger, stronger opponents, and a rash of injuries have relegated him to
lower status over the last five or six years.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">211</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 80
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 2 (2001-02)
<br />
Grand Slams: 2 titles / 2 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 28
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 564 (0.725)
<br />
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Hewitt is one of the few
players in history to be ranked number 1 for every week of a calendar year,
achieving the feat in 2002.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=396qtU_GcnA">2001 U.S. Open Final</a>. In his first grand slam
final, Hewitt demolished 13 time grand slam champion Pete Sampras in three
sets. It was probably his most impressive victory and signaled to the world
that a new champion had arrived. It was one of Sampras’ most lopsided grand
slam defeats.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">16. John Newcombe</b>
(1967-81)
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0zXdtRoE3XjY3s4Uc-kdhW5nYpG4ErwOx0rKf7l3omgfOvFg3daW0ynlyIuuIPlRnfNP8ObtC1CqsKFfzqe-bKw4fSkDRFK8cOsOHEtD3KHKRirDZHEFFWHvmIK7finkQY9ysQcUyeCDX/s1600/John_Newcombe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0zXdtRoE3XjY3s4Uc-kdhW5nYpG4ErwOx0rKf7l3omgfOvFg3daW0ynlyIuuIPlRnfNP8ObtC1CqsKFfzqe-bKw4fSkDRFK8cOsOHEtD3KHKRirDZHEFFWHvmIK7finkQY9ysQcUyeCDX/s320/John_Newcombe.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
John Newcombe was the last in the great wave of Australian
players that dominated tennis from the 1950s through the mid-1970s.
Unfortunately, his ranking on this list is suppressed a bit because his early
career was played before the Open Era. Newcombe was an attacking
serve-and-volley player, which was common at the time but rarely seen now. He
was also an exceptional doubles player, winning 17 doubles grand slams.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">237</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 8
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 2 (1970-71)
<br />
Grand Slams: 5 titles / 2 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 32
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 429 (0.759)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Newcombe had a very
successful career before turning professional including winning Wimbledon and
U.S. Open in 1967.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SklUQD02Bs8">1970 Wimbledon Final</a>. Newcombe defeated his
countryman Ken Rosewall in five long sets to win the 1970 Wimbledon title. It
was the first of the five grand slams he would win in the Open Era (and third
of the seven he won overall). For both 1970 and 1971 Newcombe was considered as
the best player (along with Rod Laver and Rosewall in 1970 and Stan Smith in
1971).
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">15. Ilie Nastase</b>
(1966-85)
<br />
Nastase’s career also started before the Open Era, but he
came into his own in the early 1970s. Nastase was known for his style and all
court game, and his antics, a sort of European John McEnroe with a bit more
playfulness and a bit less skill than the American.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">287</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 40
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 1 (1973)
<br />
Grand Slams: 2 titles / 3 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 57
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 755 (0.725)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Nastase was the first man to
be ranked number 1 when the rankings were introduced in 1973. He held the top
spot for the first 40 weeks of the rankings (the only 40 weeks he would be
number 1).
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf4wrrpzdYc">1972 U.S. Open Final</a>. Nastase won his first
grand slam title by defeating Arthur Ashe at the 1972 U.S. Open, in a long five
set match. That was in an era when the U.S. Open was played on grass, and it’s
noteworthy that Nastase won the grand slams on grass and clay (1973 French Open). Few players have proven capable of winning grand slams on both
surfaces.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">14. Mats Wilander</b>
(1969-85)
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhndy6bt43dSSPeoBbUQllcGQPNxB-_OrKAYITz-P0YciJYbC7xooleC9S-ETFq0Ly18FosxJvh6ictLaARpPxYIwQ5FiR2-rYb2XPRcu1bhyNpjZLP-J1aEik89Xr3SzJW_mhDAKc3VV6W/s1600/mats+wilander.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhndy6bt43dSSPeoBbUQllcGQPNxB-_OrKAYITz-P0YciJYbC7xooleC9S-ETFq0Ly18FosxJvh6ictLaARpPxYIwQ5FiR2-rYb2XPRcu1bhyNpjZLP-J1aEik89Xr3SzJW_mhDAKc3VV6W/s1600/mats+wilander.jpg" /></a></div>
Mats Wilander followed Bjorn Borg as
the top player from Sweden, not long after Borg left the stage, Wilander won
his first grand slam at the 1982 French Open, at the tender age of just 17. He
won four grand slams by the age of 20, the youngest man ever to achieve that
feat. He was ranked in the top 5 for every year from 1983 through 1987, but it
was 1988 when he reached his apogee, winning three grand slams and surmounting perennial
number 1 Ivan Lendl. However his fall from the top was quick as he couldn’t
sustain the level that had carried him to number 1. He won just one title after
1988 and by 1990 he had fallen out of the top 40. Had he been able to maintain
his level for just a bit longer, he’d surely rank higher on this list.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">288</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 20
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 1 (1988)
<br />
Grand Slams: 7 titles / 4 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 33
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 571 (0.720);
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Wilander won three grand
slams in 1988 (Australia, French Open, U.S. open), the only man to do this
between Jimmy Conners in 1975 and Roger Federer in 2004.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Efmy72bXH0c">1988 U.S. Open Final</a>. Wilander did the almost
impossible, beating Ivan Lendl in the final of the U.S. Open. Coming into the
match Lendl had won 27 straight matches at Flushing Meadows. The match was long
and hard, going a full five sets. The final set was back and forth, but
Wilander broke late and withstood Lendl’s pressure to close out the match in
just under five hours. Wilander had conquered the mighty Lendl and established
himself as the new number 1 (short-lived though his reign would be).
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">13. Novak Djokovic</b>
(2003-current)
<br />
I’ve <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/search/label/tennis">written plenty on Novak Djokovic</a> over the last couple
of years. It seemed that his all-around excellent game would only ever be good
enough for third best on tour; winning the tour scraps left from Federer and
Nadal. Then 2011 happened. Seemingly out of the blue Djokovic realized all of
his potential and became nearly unbeatable, winning 64 of his first 66 matches,
three grand slams and putting Nadal and Federer clearly in his rearview mirror.
He just finished 2012 ranked number 1 and he’s the odd-on favorite to stay
there in 2013. Who knows where he might end up on this ranking, but inside the
top 10 seems almost certain.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">295</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 62 (as of December 31, 2012)
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 2 (2011-12)
<br />
Grand Slams: 5 titles / 4 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 34
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 469 (0.792)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Djokovic won three grand slams
in 2011 (Australia, Wimbledon, U.S. Open) becoming just the sixth man to do
this during the Open Era.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrgoG8SaEVQ">2011 Wimbledon Final</a>. Djokovic seemed to
overcome one challenge after another in the first half of 2011, most notably
beating Nadal four times, including two times on clay. But it was in the
Wimbledon Final the Djokovic showed that the dynamics of the tour had changed.
He dominated Nadal en route to a four set win, ending the Spaniard’s 20 match
Wimbledon winning streak in the process. There could be no doubt, there was the
new top dog on Tour.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">12. Boris Becker</b>
(1984-99)
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Boris Becker was perhaps the most precocious of the many
great players on this list, winning his first grand slam at Wimbledon, in just
his fourth grand slam tournament, at 17 (a younger 17 than when Wilander won French
Open in 1982). He possessed perhaps the first truly monstrous serve in the game
and his basic big serve-put-away volley approach adumbrated the style that
would come to epitomize the tennis tour in the early and mid-90s.
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">306</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 12
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 0
<br />
Grand Slams: 6 titles / 4 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 49
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 713 (0.769)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: Becker won the 1985 Wimbledon
title when he was just 17 years old. He would win it again as an 18-year-old in
1986.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXQ0lNwfcTo&playnext=1&list=PLCF445311832C6186&feature=results_main">1985 Wimbledon Final</a>. Nothing could compare
to Becket’s 1985 Wimbledon break-through. The red-haired German was young and
bold. His booming serve and diving volleys electrified the English crowd. Despite
being unseeded and unheralded, Becker kept winning. His opponent, American by
way of South African Kevin Curran, was game, but no one was going to deny
Becker his first grand slam title. He won in four sets and the Becker
phenomenon had arrived.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">11. Guillermo Vilas</b>
(1969-92)
<br />
Guillermo Vilas may be the greatest player never ranked
number 1 (at least in the Open Era). He won more matches, more titles, and more
grand slams than anyone else not ranked number 1. In 1977, his finest season,
Vilas won a startling 16 titles, including two grand slams (French Open and
U.S. Open), and an amazing 130 matches. By current rankings practice, he would have
finished the year ranked number 1 (he finished the year ranked second behind
Jimmy Connors). All told, Vilas was ranked inside the top 10 for nine
consecutive years (1974-83).
<br />
<br />
Total Points: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">316</b>
<br />
Weeks Ranked Number 1: 0
<br />
Year-End Number 1: 0
<br />
Grand Slams: 4 titles / 4 finals
<br />
Career Titles (all): 62
<br />
Career Wins (PCT): 923 (0.765)
<br />
Other Noteworthy Achievements: In 1977 Vilas won a
still-standing record 46 consecutive matches. This record has since been
approached by John McEnroe, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic, but no one has
bettered it.
<br />
<br />
Iconic Moment: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNeToLCm-xQ">1977 U.S. Open Final</a>. Vilas won four grand
slams but the best triumph may have been at the U.S. Open in 1977 when he took
down Jimmy Connors in five sets. 1977 was the last in a short three year
stretch (1975-77) when the U.S. Open was played on clay. Vilas took advantage of
his favored slow surface to take command of the match after Connors won the
first set. Vilas won going away 6-0 in the fourth.
<br />
<br />
The top ten players are listed in Part 2, see <a href="http://conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-greatest-tennis-player-of-all-time_28.html">here</a>.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> Short, but actually longer than in past seasons
when the Davis Cup Final was traditionally played on the first weekend in
December. A couple of years ago the ATP agreed to compress the end of the
season to give players a bit more rest before the tour heats up down in the
antipodes in January.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> Australia: (1) Novak Djokovic; French Open:
(4) Rafael Nadal; Wimbledon: (2) Roger Federer; U.S. Open: (3) Andy Murray.
Djokovic also won three of the ATP 1000 tournaments (Miami, Canada, and
Shanghai) and the year-end World Tour Finals, Federer won three ATP 1000
tournaments (Indian Wells, Madrid, and Cincinnati), Nadal won two of them
(Monte Carlo and Rome), Andy Murray won the Olympics, and David Ferrer won the
final ATP 1000 tournaments in Paris.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> Of course given the context of this discussion,
it’s worth emphasizing that precision is not synonymous with accuracy.
Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-45106166027523521192012-11-11T16:28:00.001-05:002012-11-12T18:01:39.880-05:00Republicans Are Losing the Electoral College<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPvqJ5-wWrnndmHLfUnxJE4O190d8dGI7oA-fCLYXeim85lAQKYrwevYtg4juFefghxylGW42MMHISG5QkaHuYs2HdgGg1-ywTAltbZrIwsfYc-teppSZC913meB2tIEtfvCjCZmt2DfiR/s1600/gop-upside-down.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPvqJ5-wWrnndmHLfUnxJE4O190d8dGI7oA-fCLYXeim85lAQKYrwevYtg4juFefghxylGW42MMHISG5QkaHuYs2HdgGg1-ywTAltbZrIwsfYc-teppSZC913meB2tIEtfvCjCZmt2DfiR/s1600/gop-upside-down.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will the GOP be able to compete in the Electoral College?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<style>
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Conventional
political wisdom holds that incumbent Presidents are hard to beat. But this
year, Mitt Romney and the Republican Party thought they had a good chance. In
their view, President Obama’s first term had been a failure: he was presiding
over a stagnant economy, high unemployment, and a <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/11/political-failure.html">looming fiscal crisis</a>. The
President seemed vulnerable, and indeed, <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-insidious-influence-of-political.html">pre-election polls</a> showed a dead heat.
But to the chagrin of the American Right, instead of a victory their candidate
was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012">roundly defeated</a> – at least in Electoral terms. What many thought would be
an election decided in the wee hours of Wednesday morning (or even later), was
over by the time the polls closed on the West Coast. In the end, Obama won a
second term by a lopsided Electoral Count of 332 to 206, not much less than his
landslide four years ago.
<br />
<br />
In
these days after the election, the Republican Party and American Right probably
feel like the Democrats and American Left felt eight years ago after George W.
Bush <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004">won a second term</a>. Confused about losing an election they thought they
could win. They are left wondering what went wrong and what do they have to do
to stand a better chance in 2016? But from this writer’s perspective,
Republicans face a far stiffer challenge today than Democrats did in 2004.
<br />
<br />
This
is not a political blog, and I’m not going to write in any detail about what
Republicans should do to win on the national stage, but (looking from the Center)
some things appear obvious. It would seem vital to attract a larger share of the Latino
vote. This is a large and growing cohort of the electorate and the Republicans
can’t afford to get less than 30 percent of their vote like they did this year.
A more coherent and less xenophobic stance on immigration would likely go a
long way. America, as is often said, is a country of immigrants. This is true and
people across the globe have always wanted to come to this country. Immigration
is a complex issue, and a blanket open door is almost certainly not the right
answer, but neither is a closed door, and Republicans will have to embrace a
more welcoming and workable position. Moderating their positions on social
issues would be good as well. Abortion may be abhorrent to many on the Right,
but an immediate prohibition will never happen, and stridently preaching for
one doesn’t help with the larger mass of voters, especially women voters.
Neither does, say, stigmatizing homosexuals, or the poor, or painting the
government (and by extension government employees) as a parasite feeding on the
productive private sector. And Republicans have to do better in articulating
their message. If President Obama was vulnerable in this election, especially
on economic issues, this argument, as presented by the GOP, clearly didn’t win
over the voters. Mid-term elections are supposed to be a referendum on the
incumbent, but much of the national discourse in the months leading up to
October seemed to be focused not on the President’s first four years, but on
the Democratic message that Mitt Romney was an out-of-touch elitist.
Republicans clearly lost the rhetorical battle.Romney and his Party didn't do what they needed to do: convince Americans why they were the better choice to lead and not the President and his Party.<br />
<br />
All
of these are important, but none directly address the largest problem for
Republicans, their increasing narrow path to an Electoral majority.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A Growing Electoral Reality</b>
<br />
The President won about 50.6% of the national
vote to Romney’s 47.9%. This is hardly a landslide, actually <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008">down noticeably from 2008</a>, but the 332 to 206 Electoral count, as noted above, was lopsided by
any measure. This just continues a trend that’s been evident for a generation.
The last Republican Electoral landslide <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1988">occurred in 1988</a>, when Vice President
George H. W. Bush defeated Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. The
Electoral count in that year was 426 to 111, the popular vote 53.4% to 45.7%.
Bush 41 (41<sup>st</sup> President) had been the eight-year Vice President
under a very popular President in Ronald Reagan, the last Republican who was
truly able to attract Democratic voters. And Dukakis ran a poor campaign. Since
then, these have been the Presidential election results:<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
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<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" width="78">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Name</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Electors</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Popular
Vote</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Name</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Electors</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Popular
Vote</b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #000099; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 36.9pt;" width="49">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">1992<a name="1"><a href="#2"><sup><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1</span></b></sup></a></a></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" width="78">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">B. Clinton</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">370</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">43.0%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
G. Bush</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
168</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
37.5%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="background: #000099; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 36.9pt;" width="49">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">1996</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" width="78">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">B. Clinton</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">379</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white;">49.2%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
B. Dole</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
159</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
40.7%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: red; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 36.9pt;" width="49">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" width="78">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
A. Gore</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
266</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
48.4%</div>
</td>
<td style="background: red; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">G. W. Bush</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: red; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">271</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: red; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">47.9%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="background: red; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 36.9pt;" width="49">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2004</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" width="78">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
J. Kerry</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
251</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
48.3%</div>
</td>
<td style="background: red; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">G. W. Bush</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: red; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">286</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: red; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">50.7%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="background: #000099; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 36.9pt;" width="49">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2008</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" width="78">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">B. Obama</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">365</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">52.9%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
J. McCain</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
173</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
45.7%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #000099; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 36.9pt;" width="49">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2012</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" width="78">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">B. Obama</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">332</span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #000099; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">50.6%</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
M. Romney</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
206</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: 0in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0in;">
47.9%</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
The
four Democratic victories have been Electoral landslides, the two Republican
victories (both by Bush 43) were Electoral squeakers. Tellingly, none of these
elections have been popular landslides, at least not in the FDR, LBJ, Regan
sense, indicating that the electorate is rather evenly split. But the Electoral
College is all that counts and Republicans are falling behind. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000">The 2000 election</a> was just the fourth time in history that the popular vote winner lost
the election and famously, or infamously, depending on your political
persuasion, the election was ultimately settled by the Supreme Court in the
Republican’s favor. The 2004 election saw Bush get a larger percentage of the
popular vote than Obama did this year, yet the Republican had to sweat out the
Electoral results as Ohio was a very close contest, one that would have swung
the election had it gone for Democrat John Kerry.
<br />
<br />
This
year it seemed that all the focus was on the so-called swing states, which
included Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire,
Colorado, and Nevada, and stretching a bit, Wisconsin, Michigan, and
Pennsylvania. A Romney victory seemed to require him to win Florida, Virginia,
North Carolina, Ohio, and one or two of the other swing states. That’s an
awfully narrow path. Meanwhile, President Obama merely needed to carry one or
two of these states to easily keep his job. In the end, Romney was only able to
swing North Carolina (and Indiana, where he led easily in polling throughout
the run-up to the election).
<br />
<br />
Every
election Republicans face an uphill battle because they trail so far behind in “safe”
Electoral votes. To emphasize this Republican dilemma, here’s a list of the nation’s
thirteen largest states (accounting for 295 Electoral votes, 55% of the total) and
the last election in which they were carried by a Republican:
<br />
<ol>
<li>California
(55) – 1988
</li>
<li>Texas
(38) – 2012
</li>
<li>New
York (29) – 1984
</li>
<li>Florida
(29) – 2004
</li>
<li>Pennsylvania
(20) – 1988
</li>
<li>Illinois
(20) – 1988
</li>
<li>Ohio
(18) – 2004
</li>
<li>Georgia
(16) – 2012
</li>
<li>Michigan
(16) – 1988
</li>
<li>North
Carolina (15) – 2012
</li>
<li>New
Jersey (14) – 1988
</li>
<li>Virginia
(13) – 2004
</li>
<li>Washington
(12) – 1984
</li>
</ol>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil9LOCRwC863pauZFTydUsvmylOZNQQXdjYqo_tkkbcl1ueOEiQLxIkNqeg-KZB0XQHNE56J6NeXk93IqxeKQ2UaArovh2c_CW3J2dhuOjBn-19HTzu7wZGj-tDDplrMCWzNX_bXVfSCsl/s1600/george-bush-sr.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil9LOCRwC863pauZFTydUsvmylOZNQQXdjYqo_tkkbcl1ueOEiQLxIkNqeg-KZB0XQHNE56J6NeXk93IqxeKQ2UaArovh2c_CW3J2dhuOjBn-19HTzu7wZGj-tDDplrMCWzNX_bXVfSCsl/s320/george-bush-sr.jpg" width="247" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">George H.W. Bush - the last Republican to win "big"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Just
three of these states, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, were carried by
Romney this year for a total of 69 Electoral votes. The other 10 went for Obama
(most easily) for a total of 226 Electoral votes. In 2004, Bush was able to
carry six of these states (Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and
Virginia) for a total 129 Electoral votes (2012 count). This compares to the
other seven states, and their 166 Electoral votes for Kerry. And this is
realistically the best that Republicans can currently hope for. A majority of
these large states (the seven that went for Kerry in 2004) are very “blue” and haven’t
been carried by a Republican since the 1980s, which is now a long time ago. If
this Electoral structural reality doesn’t change, the GOP stands little better
chance to win in 2016 and beyond. Today, the Republicans virtually cede
California, New York, and Illinois to the Democrats. The only “safe” big state
for the Republicans is “red” Texas.<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
Whatever
plans the Republican Party has to regain the presidency in future years, a
primary focus must be on reengaging voters in states they’ve largely abandoned,
which includes many of America’s largest cities: New York, Los Angeles,
Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, San Diego, Washington, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh,
Seattle, Boston, Baltimore, Detroit, and Portland. The GOP can’t expect results
like 2000 or 2004 where almost everything goes right and they eke out a win. If
Republicans don’t do better in the “blue” areas, America will settle into a
long run of Democratic presidents. This has happened before; from 1932 through
1968 during the New Deal-Great Society era, Democrats controlled the White
House in all but eight years (Eisenhower 1953-61<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>). If you’re a
Democratic this possibility will seem a good outcome, but in a country
where nearly half the electorate voted against the incumbent Democratic President, one-party-domination
is probably not a good thing.
<br />
<br />
The
country, I think, benefits from a fairly regular change in presidential party
affiliation, perhaps something similar to what we’ve seen over the last
generation with a couple of Republican terms (1981-93 and 2001-09) followed by
a couple of Democratic terms (1993-01 and 2009-17 – at least). This, in my
view, helps to ensure that all viewpoints are heard and all constituencies are
considered in the national political debate. In theory anyway (and people more ideologically
minded will disagree). But this switching of presidential leadership isn’t
likely if the GOP doesn’t perform better in the Electoral College, and this won’t
happen until they get back into those “deep blue” parts of the country that
have led to the Democratic predominance over the last generation.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992">1992 was the last election</a> where a third-party candidate, Ross Perot in this case,
garnered a significant proportion of the votes. He won no state and zero
Electors, but did get nearly 19% of the popular vote. Perot’s presence in the
election almost certainly affected the outcome. It’s also the last year that a
President failed to win a second term. Perot would run again in 1996 and win more
than 8% of the vote, but almost certainly didn’t affect the outcome.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> I
find it ironic that the color red is closely affiliated with both international
communism (when that was still as thing, e.g., Red China and that blood red
Soviet flag) and the conservative Republican Party. One side is (was) economically
collectivist and Godless, the other advocates for the free market and is
buttressed by dedicated support from evangelicals.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a>
And during Eisenhower’s two terms, the Democrats controlled both chambers of
Congress for all but the first two (1953-55) years.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-82437367149237795912012-11-04T08:49:00.000-05:002012-11-12T11:49:48.075-05:00Geographic Oddities: A Sea or Not a Sea?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-COncjaJzc-tO2WxKhOzGUdnb8xj1tXRNEFlrtDvyj9ymdf0rONi4-H-1qn1H_4_IGPJJFIrCC6aTrC7wbSm2wqyn6jxm-sW4xjcKnPepzWznkZ_3KrRbgVbFTHAvq558ufbI5wULEJnv/s1600/blue+marble.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-COncjaJzc-tO2WxKhOzGUdnb8xj1tXRNEFlrtDvyj9ymdf0rONi4-H-1qn1H_4_IGPJJFIrCC6aTrC7wbSm2wqyn6jxm-sW4xjcKnPepzWznkZ_3KrRbgVbFTHAvq558ufbI5wULEJnv/s1600/blue+marble.jpg" /></a></div>
<style>
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About five hours after the launch of Apollo 17, in the early
morning hours of December 7, 1972, the astronauts of man’s final lunar mission
turned their gazes back to Earth. Their capsule was positioned between the Earth
and the sun, and from their God’s-eye view 28,000 miles overhead they saw a
full hemisphere bathed in light and shining spectacular blue against the black
void of space. The photograph they took of the scene is one of the most iconic
views of our planet and has become famously know as the “blue marble”.<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
Take a look at a globe or a world map and you see mostly blue, and as we
all learned as school kids, about 70 percent of the Earth’s surface is covered by water.
There’s even a term for all this water, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrosphere">hydrosphere</a>. Virtually all of the
hydrosphere is part a vast connected <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_ocean">world ocean</a>; the oceans, seas, bays,
gulfs, bights, channels, estuaries, firths, fjords, sounds, and straits, which
despite the many names we give them, comprise a single body of water.<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>
There is, however, one conspicuously massive body of water that isn’t part of
this world ocean, the landlocked <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspian_sea">Caspian Sea</a>.
<br />
<br />
For all you amateur geographers out there, the Caspian Sea presents
a riddle of geography and definition. Is it a real sea, or is it just a big
lake? What does the word “sea” actually mean, and speaking geographically, what
is a sea really? I ask these questions because we humans love to classify, to
put a blanket of order on the world. But let’s come back to this.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Is the Caspian a Sea
or a Lake?</b>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivg0mqx-i0RtqbtjRPgjghv90Zi0XeR1tXq2pLv4O6nxEHU3MVQWIWR19EkkyPH-0_nXwqq0hFnF9cJ_U3CF7cI0OCbKuOLSVcfXvbgbAsRfbe0hCNRnsh5mLk5BHe-88_KaoCIsNdo9bJ/s1600/caspian+sea.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivg0mqx-i0RtqbtjRPgjghv90Zi0XeR1tXq2pLv4O6nxEHU3MVQWIWR19EkkyPH-0_nXwqq0hFnF9cJ_U3CF7cI0OCbKuOLSVcfXvbgbAsRfbe0hCNRnsh5mLk5BHe-88_KaoCIsNdo9bJ/s320/caspian+sea.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
The Caspian Sea lies a few hundred miles east of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_sea">Black Sea</a> along borders of Europe, central Asia, and the Middle East. Territorially
it’s divided between Russia in the northwest, Azerbaijan to the west, Iran in
the south, Turkmenistan in the southeast, and Kazakhstan in the northeast. It’s
famous as the fishing grounds for much of the world’s sturgeon, the major source
of caviar. Lately its oil-rich shores and seabed have become the crucial economic
engine of the region (and a source of political tension among the surrounding
countries). And it is a one-of-a-kind body of water.
<br />
<br />
You look in most atlases or encyclopedias and the Caspian <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sea</i> is listed as the world’s largest <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lake</i>. Its maximum length (north to
south) is 640 miles and its max width (east to west) is 270 miles. It covers an
area of 143,000 square miles (371,000 square km),<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>
which makes it about the same size as Montana or all the islands of Japan, and
bigger than Germany; it could easily accommodate all of the British Isles. It’s
also really deep. The southern third of the Caspian is oceanic with a maximum depth
greater than 3,300 feet. The total volume of water is about 18,800 cubic miles
(78,000 cubic km).<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a> These dimensions dwarf all other lakes. By
area the next biggest lake is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_superior">Lake Superior</a> (the greatest of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_lakes">Great Lakes</a>),
which itself is huge with an area of a little under 32,000 square miles. But
this is four and a half times smaller than the Caspian. In fact, the Caspian in
larger in area than the next seven largest lakes combined.<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5 </span></sup></b></a></a> Just to emphasize the
point, the Caspian is 50 percent larger than the combined area all of the North
American Great Lakes. A comparison of volume tells the same story. The Caspian
holds more than three times the water of the mile-deep <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_baikal">Lake Baikal</a> (the world’s
most voluminous fresh water lake) and more than the next seven lakes combined.<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
Before we go further, a quick aside for definitions:
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Sea</b>: (1) the salt
waters that cover the greater part of the Earth’s surface; (2) a division of
these waters, of considerable extent, more or less definitely marked off by
land boundaries; (3) a large lake or landlocked body of water.
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Lake</b>: a body of
fresh or salt water of considerable size, surrounded by land.
</li>
</ul>
<br />
These are dictionary definitions but they jive pretty well with
wordier geographic definitions. And they don’t help us answer the question of
whether the Caspian is a sea or a lake.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
The Caspian is so large that its shores touch on radically
different climates. There’s the cold deserts of Kazakhstan the Turkmenistan,
the arid Russian steppes, the high mountains of the Caucasus, the dry
subtropical plains of Azerbaijan, and the lush, verdant subtropical forests of
northern Iran. Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan is the largest city situated on
the Caspian, but Iran’s capital Tehran and Russian Astrakhan<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a>
aren’t too far removed from its shores.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-p4fRl6NVNRZBrZ_heFcLaSP0JkWxlbRVrYnaNj8j6emsqVid3VgeTPPUcia7XOf8k8uDBLAYQeHC08Zn5zWkSwkhM3_kT99CKrSBIKx7E5b6ipgisoyNMOB16ZJ8gwP4tAM9ErbmkJV/s1600/oil+tanker+caspian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-p4fRl6NVNRZBrZ_heFcLaSP0JkWxlbRVrYnaNj8j6emsqVid3VgeTPPUcia7XOf8k8uDBLAYQeHC08Zn5zWkSwkhM3_kT99CKrSBIKx7E5b6ipgisoyNMOB16ZJ8gwP4tAM9ErbmkJV/s320/oil+tanker+caspian.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Oil tanker on the Caspian Sea</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The Caspian is an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorheic_basin">endorheic basin</a>. That means it doesn’t
have any outflows. Water comes in via rivers and streams but can only leave
through seepage or evaporation. And like most other endorheic bodies of water
(e.g., the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Salt_Lake">Great Salt Lake</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Sea">Dead Sea</a>) it is salty. The saline concentration
varies greatly, but on average it’s about as third as salty as typical ocean water.
The Caspian is fed by the longest river in Europe, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_River">Volga</a>, which supplies 80
percent of the inflow. This is unusual because all of the world’s great rivers –
except the Volga – flow into the world ocean. Many large rivers have their
source in lakes, like the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile">Nile</a> at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Victoria">Lake Victoria</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congo_River">Congo</a> at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Tanganyika">Lake Tanganyika</a>, but no others empty into one. The Caspian’s level is independent
of the world ocean, and it’s the center of a large basin that sits below global
sea level (presently the surface sits about 92 feet below sea level). In fact
the geology of the southern part of the Caspian is oceanic as the seabed is
oceanic crust and not continental crust.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Caspian Sea and Lake</b>
<br />
So given all these facts, I’m going to argue that the
Caspian is both a lake and a sea, a mini ocean. It’s a lake for the simple
reason that it is landlocked; it’s distinct from the world ocean. It’s a sea
because it’s huge relative to other lakes, salty like the sea (just not as
salty), deep like an ocean, geologically oceanic (at least in part), ancient
(it’s been there for 5.5 million years), and the outflow for one of the world’s
largest rivers. If you compare the Caspian to many mediterranean seas (a sea
mostly enclosed by land within distinct circulation patterns, hence the lower
case “m”), it is about the same size (a little smaller) than the Black Sea and
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea">Red Sea</a>, the same size and saltier than the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_sea">Baltic Sea</a><a name="15"><a href="#16"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">8</span></sup></b></a></a>, and much bigger than the
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_gulf">Persian Gulf</a>.
<br />
<br />
All of this is to say that the Caspian is two things at
once, a sea and a lake, a sea-lake; it defies easy classification. And the more
you look at our world’s geography, the more of these classification conundrums
you find.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Geographical Conundrums</b>
<br />
Here’s another geographic riddle that a lot of us pondered when
we were taught about the continents in school: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia#Geography_and_climate">Is Australia an island</a>? You look
at the map and it’s pretty obvious that Australia is surrounded on all sides by
water. But the answer from geographers is that Australia is too big to be an
island, instead it’s a continent. By far
the smallest continent, the mainland of Australia is a little more than half as
big as the next smallest continent, Antarctica (assuming we lump Europe in with
Asia – Eurasia, as geographers usually do), but a continent nonetheless. After all,
the world ocean surrounds all continents so they all are islands if we go
strictly by the land-surrounded-by-water definition. So we make a call,
Australia is big enough to be a continent and too big to be an island. Still,
the division between island and continent is arbitrary (just like the division
between sea and lake).
<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_islands_by_area">world’s biggest island</a> is frozen Greenland, which at
823,000 square miles is larger than all but eleven countries. It’s also almost
three times larger than the second largest island, New Guinea, and larger than
the next three largest islands combined (New Guinea, Borneo, and Madagascar).
And here we are back with another Caspian-like argument. Could Greenland be
considered a continent? And the trouble with classification is again revealed, Earth’s geography
doesn’t fit into easy discrete divisions; Australia the island continent,
Greenland the continental island.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF9GGIh9oO6_BGVPfeoAQb5mCfZiLFsSNeZ-V-Ac66UH-mr3wPQ89Wmp2CZkbyZ-rKZV5VxWIF7PmnASzH7JrdpkrDfJJk1ndDELjMTmvSA7QclUEDBZBtO3Ojjz2zArYa_J6xB-832Jy-/s1600/wide+amazon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF9GGIh9oO6_BGVPfeoAQb5mCfZiLFsSNeZ-V-Ac66UH-mr3wPQ89Wmp2CZkbyZ-rKZV5VxWIF7PmnASzH7JrdpkrDfJJk1ndDELjMTmvSA7QclUEDBZBtO3Ojjz2zArYa_J6xB-832Jy-/s320/wide+amazon.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The wide Amazon River near its mouth</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The examples continue. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_River">Amazon River</a>, the drain of the
huge Amazon basin and the Amazon rainforest, discharges 209,000 cubic meters of
water per second into the Atlantic Ocean. Its largest tributaries, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madeira_River">Madeira River</a>
and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Negro_%28Amazon%29">Rio Negro</a> are, by discharge, the sixth and seventh largest rivers in
the world, respectively. The Amazon discharges more water than the next nine
largest rivers combined (not counting its own tributaries). It discharges five
times as much water as the Congo (second highest discharge), and 13 times as
much as the mighty <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River">Mississippi</a>. All told it accounts for one-fifth of the world’s
total river flow. The Amazon is as wide as six miles during the dry season and
floods to more than 30 miles wide during the rainy season. It reaches depths of
300 feet (it averages about 150 feet deep for most of its lower stretches). The
island of Marajo at the river’s mouth is over 15,000 square miles, lager than
Switzerland. We don’t have a term for a river that’s bigger than a river. A
super-river perhaps, or better yet, what the locals call it: the river-sea.
Whatever the Amazon is, it makes all the world’s other great rivers seem
insignificant.
<br />
<br />
If we bring this back to seas and oceans, is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ocean">Pacific Ocean</a> so large that it could be considered something else? It could easily
accommodate all the world’s landmasses. It includes the deepest point on the
planet’s crust (the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Challenger_Deep">Challenger Deep</a> of the Mariana Trench) and the point
farthest from any land (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_Nemo#Oceanic_pole_of_inaccessibility">Point Nemo</a>). It is by far the dominant geographic
feature of Earth. It covers one-third of the Earth’s surface. But again we lack
the proper vocabulary; maybe we could call it a planetary ocean?
<br />
<br />
There are no real answers to these questions, or better
stated, it doesn’t matter whether the Caspian is a sea or a lake, or both; whether
a landmass is a continent or an island; whether a river or ocean is so big that
it’s something else. Our Earth is an endlessly fascinating place, and often too
complex and nuanced for simple human ordering.
<br />
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NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> Fun fact: Despite our perception of land as
being generally uneven and covered over great areas by rolling hills, and extensive
canyons and basins, and massive mountain ranges with their high craggily peaks,
and if you poured away the oceans, deep trenches, if we could actually hold the
Earth between our fingers it would feel far smoother than and most perfect blue
marble you’ve ever held. (Although because if the equatorial bulged caused by
the planet’s rotation, Earth is less round than that same (well machined)
marble.)
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2. </span></b></a></a>This is true in as much that these waters are
all connected and mix, but hydrologically they vary greatly from place to
place. For instance, consider the waters in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taganrog_Bay">Taganrog Bay</a> one the one hand and of
the eastern <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Ocean">Atlantic</a> just west of the strait of Gibraltar on the other. These
waters are connected via the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_azov">Sea of Azov</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait">Kerch Strait</a>, the Black Sea, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosphorus">Bosporus</a>,
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Marmara">Sea of Marmara</a>, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dardanelles">Dardanelles</a>, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_Sea">Aegean Sea</a>, the main body of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_Sea">Mediterranean Sea</a>, and finally the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Gibraltar">Strait of Gibraltar</a>. Taganrog Bay’s water is almost fresh
while the Atlantic water is toxically salty.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> And all these values don’t even count the
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garabogazk%C3%B6l">Garabogazkol Aylagy</a>, the large kidney-shaped bay off the Caspian’s eastern
shore. It’s connected to the Caspian via a narrow strait, but at times its
level drops and it becomes physically distinct. It’s also shallow and very
salty (10 times the concentration of seawater). In the mid 20<sup>th</sup>
century the Soviets saw the Garabogazkol Aylagy as an evaporative sink of the
Caspian and a heavy contributor to the Sea’s falling level. So in a typically
misguided bit of environmental engineering they dammed the entrance to the
strait. Within a few years the basin was completely dry. The resulting dry salt
was carried on the breeze and poisoned the ground for hundreds of miles
downwind. Fortunately nature intervened. The Caspian rose in the last part of
the 20<sup>th</sup> century and overtopped the dam. The basin has been filled
ever since.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> I’m not sure how the volume of 18,800 mi<sup>3</sup>
is derived because the average depth of the Caspian is listed as about 610
feet, which would make the volume (depth x area) about 16,600 cubic miles. I’m
going with the larger volumes provided in the references, and in any case, it’s
a tremendous amount of water.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> The next seven, in order of size:<br />
<ul>
<li>2. Lake Superior (31,820 mi<sup>2</sup>), </li>
<li>3. Lake
Victoria (26,828 mi<sup>2</sup>), </li>
<li>4. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Huron">Lake Huron</a> (23,000 mi<sup>2</sup>), </li>
<li>5. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Michigan">Lake Michigan</a> (mi<sup>2</sup>), </li>
<li>6. Lake Tanganyika (12,700 mi<sup>2</sup>), </li>
<li>7. Lake Baikal
(12,200 mi<sup>2</sup>), and </li>
<li>8. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bear_Lake">Great Bear Lake</a> (12,000 mi<sup>2</sup>).
</li>
</ul>
Isn't it a bit telling that all of these lakes have "lake" in their name. No Superior Sea or Sea Victoria.<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> The next seven, in order of volume:<br />
<ul>
<li>2. Lake Baikal (5,700 mi<sup>3</sup>), </li>
<li>3. Lake Tanganyika
(4,500 mi<sup>3</sup>), </li>
<li>4. Lake Superior (2,900 mi<sup>3</sup>), </li>
<li>5. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Malawi">Lake Malawi</a>
(2,000 mi3), </li>
<li>6. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Vostok">Lake Vostok</a> (1,300 mi<sup>3</sup>), </li>
<li>7. Lake Michigan (1,200 mi<sup>3</sup>),
and </li>
<li>8. Lake Huron (850 mi<sup>3</sup>). </li>
</ul>
<br />
If you’ve never heard of Lake Vostok and
can’t find it on a map, that’s because it can’t be seen. It lies deep below the
Antarctic Ice, 13,000 feet below. Its existence was first hypothesized in the
middle of the 20<sup>th</sup> century and confirmed in 1993. Its surface is
compressed down by the massive weight of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and if exposed
it would be 1,600 feet below sea level, which would make it by far the lowest
lake (and point) on land.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a> Little known historical tidbit: During World
War II, Hitler’s proposed invasion of the Soviet Union was to take German
troops up to a line from the White Sea at Arkangel to the Caspian Sea at Astrakhan,
basically all of the European Soviet Union. This was the so called A-A line. He
never made it. But during their 1942 summer offensive, while German troops to
the north were pushing on toward their doom at Stalingrad, an army group was
pouring across the south Russian steppes headed for the Caucasus and the vital trans-Caucasian
oil fields. In early September German advanced scouts reconnoitered to within
20 miles of Astrakhan. Then the Caucasus advance stalled. Like everything else
Hitler planned for the Eastern Front, this objective was just beyond German
reach.
<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">8.</span></b></a></a> Including the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Bothnia">Gulf of Bothnia</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Finland">Gulf of Finland</a>.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-12239886435452096422012-10-29T22:43:00.002-04:002012-11-12T11:52:25.141-05:00Lost Songs: Five Forgotten Tracks from the 1980s<style>
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Let’s concede that sometimes the world moves too fast. Time,
to our mortal frustration, never stops. And down on a personal level so much of
our limited time is taken up with the big chunks of real, mundane, responsible stuff
that constitutes our everyday lives; and then there’s our daily turning off for
sleep.<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
The upshot of this is that even the most alert, astute, inquisitive, energized,
wired…[fill in your adjective here]…of us can barely keep up with even the most
momentous peaks of that uninterrupted wave of complex, countless happenings that
make up our world. And this is reality.
<br />
<br />
This little preamble is my way of saying that we’re mostly stuck
to follow the flow of events. I doubt you’ll want to follow me down this path
of philosophical rumination, so let me do a quick left turn and apply this line
of thinking to something a lot more fun, pop culture. Now is a glorious time to
be a fan. What with the internet, blogosphere, youtube, television channels and
websites dedicated to every form of entertainment, twitter, facebook, etc., and
the endless parade of commentators and critics ready to make sense of it all.
This is the age of entertainment variety and specialization. And I don’t think
us fans of pop culture (a fairly frequent subject of this blog) would want it
any other way. In fact, if anything, we probably want our special tastes even
more catered to. But as any economist will tell you, life is about compromise
and trade-offs. Specialization and variety are accompanied by scattering and diffusion.
I may get to enjoy my favored entertainments better than ever, but at the loss
of all the other things that I’ll never even know were there to be experienced.
And this is reality.
<br />
<br />
So, here is the first in a new series of pop culture posts
that represent my battle against the uninterrupted wave of time. To paraphrase
a famous American conservative, this is my standing athwart history and yelling
"stop". Or at least asking you to take a few moments to experience some
bits of pop culture that you may have missed. The subject of this post is five “lost”
tracks from the 1980s. I’ll touch on movies, TV, books, etc., and other decades
in future posts. Before I get to the songs, let me note upfront that these
tracks aren’t supposed to be my version of a “best of” or a shrill screed
against a culture that failed to recognize the excellence of so-and-so 20-plus
years ago. It’s just a list of relatively unknown songs that I think have aged
well, and that you might like.<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a> It’s all meant in the spirit of fun, so
enjoy.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Conroy’s Five “Lost”
Tracks from the 1980s</b> (in no particular order):
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-family: normal;">"Pure"
by Lightning Seeds</b>. This is pure
80s, what with the heavy synth backing, melodious, upbeat rhythm, and distinct
way the English have of singing a pop song.
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"Cynical Girl" by Marshall Crenshaw</b>. Singer-songwriter Marshall Crenshaw enjoyed
some chart success in the early 80s. "Cynical Girl" wasn’t a hit, but should have been. It’s
two-and-a-half minutes of jangly guitar heaven.
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"I'll Wear it Proudly" by Elvis
Costello</b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">. Elvis Costello
is probably one of the most highly regarded solo artists of the late 70s and
early 80s, with a long list of notable singles of strong, deep albums. And it’s
deep on his 1986 release <i>King of America</i> that you’ll find this lovely, poetic
ballad. (Radiohead performed a poignant cover of this song during many live
shows during the 90s.) The song starts about 1:38 into the video.</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"Earn Enough for Us" by XTC</span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">. XTC typifies the band that is always
popular amongst critics but achieved limited popular success. And what popular
success they did enjoy was restricted mostly to Britain. Regardless, they’re
one of the best pop acts from the 80s, and this track is one of their strongest
songs. I like how the propulsive drums and guitar match both the rising melody
and the gritty determination of the lyrics.</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"Goodbye Girl" by Squeeze</span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">. The songwriting duo of Chris Difford and
Glenn Tilbrook were dubbed by the British music critics as the next
Lennon-McCartney, which more or less doomed the band to be seen as failures.
They weren’t of course, releasing many hits, including “Tempted”, which was a
big hit in America and which I’m sure you’ve heard. Still, “Goodbye Girl” is
there best song, and in my opinion, one of the best songs of the decade. It’s
got everything, a mid-tempo beat, lovely harmonies, waves of synthesizer, and
melancholy lyrics. (By the way, I'm picking the remixed version from the band's <i>Singles 45 and Under</i> album, which I could only find with this lame video - sorry.)</span></div>
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<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> This is the really frustrating thing about
sleep and time. The world keeps going while we shut down. If you live 80 years
you sleep about 23 of them (at 7 hours a day). How much </div>
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<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> And I reserve the right to list five, or ten,
or twenty more “lost” tracks from the 80s in a future post.</div>
<br />
<br />Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-25254278284066414242012-10-17T23:03:00.000-04:002012-11-12T11:53:09.297-05:00Inside USADA’s Armstrong Doping Report<style>
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Lance Armstrong had a great story. World class athlete is
struck low by metastasizing cancer and given only fifty-fifty odds to live. He
suffers through surgery and chemotherapy. He survives. And then he thrives, his
body leaner and stronger, his mind and will hardened. He returns to his sport
and dominates the most grueling athletic competition in the world. He stakes his
claim as one of the great athletes in history and in the process inspires
millions the world over with his legend of fight, survival, and triumph. He
founds an organization in his name and becomes a tireless crusader in the battle
to eradicate the illness that nearly ended his life. His is a hero. But this
great story was too good to be true.
<br />
<br />
Rumors of doping have swirled around Armstrong since he won
his first Tour de France in 1999, but like Teflon, nothing seemed to stick.
Armstrong never tested positive for drugs – or so he claimed – and he was never
caught with drugs or paraphernalia or anything else that could link him
directly to doping. He denied ever using illicit substances and even claimed
that as a cancer survivor he would never put potentially dangerous substances
into his body. (You can read about Armstrong’s career <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance_armstrong#Career">here</a>, and see my post
from last spring <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/05/say-it-aint-so.html">detailing the many doping rumors</a> that have plagued him since
at least his first Tour de France victory.)
<br />
<br />
The release of the United States Anti-Doping Agency’s
(USADA) <a href="http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/461043-reasoneddecision.html#document/p1"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i></a><a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
seems to have converted rumor to fact, and it’s no longer credible to label
Armstrong a great champion or a hero, at least not for his exploits on a
bicycle. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i> – all 200
plus pages of it – lays bare Armstrong’s career-long record of doping. But it
goes further. According to USADA, not only did Armstrong dope but he was the
leader in his team’s sophisticated doping program, a program that he was
central in developing, managing, and enforcing; while, of course, repeatedly and
forcefully denying it ever existed. Armstrong maintains that he has a clean
record, never once failing a drug test or demonstrating any dubious spikes in
performance. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i>
tears these arguments to shreds.
<br />
<br />
From the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong
Report</i>:
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“The evidence is overwhelming that Lance Armstrong did not
just use performance enhancing drugs, he supplied them to his teammates. He did
not merely go alone to Dr. Michele Ferrari for doping advice, he expected that
others would follow. It was not enough that his teammates give maximum effort
on the bike, he also required them to adhere to the doping program outlined for
them or be replaced. He was not just a part of the doping culture on his team,
he enforced and re-enforced it. Armstrong’s use of drugs was extensive, and the
doping program on his team, designed in large part to benefit Armstrong, was
massive and pervasive.” – Pages 6-7
</blockquote>
<br />
The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i>
also exposes Armstrong’s fundamental character flaws: his tendency to deny his actions,
malign his accusers, threaten witnesses, turn on friends, and do anything to
win. Even Armstrong’s ardent defenders must concede that he’s a tough man and you
cross him at your own risk. It’s his character traits that make his cheating
all the more believable. Indeed, it’s likely that for Armstrong doping was just
one more activity he needed to master to become the best cyclist. If everyone
else was cheating – or if cheating would get you ahead – then Armstrong would
cheat, just like he would train harder than anyone, or become the finest
tactician in the peleton.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">USADA’s Specific
Allegations and Evidence</b>
<br />
The USADA has charged Armstrong with (1) use of prohibited
substances, (2) possession of prohibited substances, (3) trafficking of
prohibited substances, (4) administration of prohibited substances to others,
(5) “assisting, encouraging, aiding, abetting, covering up, and other
complicity involving one or more anti-doping rule violations”, and (6) “aggravating
circumstances…justifying a period of ineligibility greater than the standard
sanction”. To back up these charges they have detailed a remarkable catalog of
cheating by Armstrong and his team, which includes:
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Witness testimony.</b>
Much of USADA’s charges are based on the sworn affidavits of 26 people
connected with Armstrong throughout his career including 15 professional
cyclists and 11 former teammates. The teammates includes admitted dopers <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floyd_Landis">Floyd Landis</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyler_Hamilton">Tyler Hamilton</a>, who Armstrong has denounced as biased and “proven
liars”, but also <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hincapie">George Hincapie</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levi_Leipheimer">Levi Leipheimer</a>, David Zabriskie, Jonathan
Vaughters, and Christian Vande Velde, each of whom have no axe to grind, and in
fact have much to lose from admitting their own past doping. Hincapie,
especially, has always been close to Armstrong, referring to Hincapie as “like
a brother”.
<br />
<br />
These 26 witnesses provided USADA with first-hand accounts
of their doping while on Armstrong’s teams, his own doping as witnessed by
them, the leadership position Armstrong assumed in his team’s doping programs,
and the logistical and material support he provided for his doping and that of
his teammates.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Chronology of
cheating.</b> USADA lays out a compelling timeline of specific events and
activities that demonstrates rules violations, doping, trafficking, and related
activities for every year from 1998 through 2005, and then again in 2009 and
2010 when Armstrong returned from his first retirement. The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i> details where Armstrong
was when he doped, be it in competition or in training, who he was with, what
drugs he used, and how those drugs were transported and distributed
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtZACHrDRwoWaL5T1r1LnE5k6N0kS_fZCY6Mu-H6QnfO1oPDufnMeFFPAStWRZiZ0Cag5o7J9hKd0ya0wGYpLnLLvVhXJcU4Uf4G-8t9amROHvM9Ios8RFhwbuqhyZXqBL74BRTJSBZRx8/s1600/blood+doping.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtZACHrDRwoWaL5T1r1LnE5k6N0kS_fZCY6Mu-H6QnfO1oPDufnMeFFPAStWRZiZ0Cag5o7J9hKd0ya0wGYpLnLLvVhXJcU4Uf4G-8t9amROHvM9Ios8RFhwbuqhyZXqBL74BRTJSBZRx8/s320/blood+doping.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Blood doping</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Drug use and doping.</b>
The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i> includes intricate
details of Armstrong’s extensive use of the blood booster <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erythropoietin">EPO</a>, testosterone,
steroids, and Actovegin, to name only the major drugs. USADA shows Armstrong’s
use of blood doping, which consists of getting a transfusion of your own blood
weeks or months after that same blood was removed from your body for the
hemoglobin boosting effects. The report includes lurid details like Armstrong
having a secret refrigerator in his Spanish apartment where he stored blood
(and not just his own) for future transfusions, of he and teammates going on a
training ride shortly after having blood removed and being so weak they could
barely pedal, and of Armstrong organizing covert rendezvous on remote European
mountain passes to receive drugs or medical/doping advice from his long-time
doctor <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Ferrari">Michele Ferrari</a> (see below)
<br />
<br />
One of Armstrong’s most repeated claims is that he never
once failed any of the 500 to 600 drug tests he received throughout his career.
USADA demonstrates that the actual number of tests was only half as many as
claimed, and in fact Armstrong did test positive on a number of occasions.
Armstrong’s “B” urine samples from the 1999 Tour were tested along with many
other samples by a French lab in 2004 after a test for EPO had been developed
(the test results became public in 2005). Tests for EPO were not available in
1999. Six of his urine samples from the 1999 Tour tested positive for EPO. This
could not be used officially against him because the corresponding “A” samples
had been destroyed per standard procedure, but there is little scientific reason
to doubt the test results. Armstrong tested positive for cortisone during the
1999 Tour, which he explained away at the time as resulting from a topical
cream used to treat a saddle sore. In fact, the prescription for cortisone
cream was written by the team doctor after the positive test (and backdated)
and the actual test results were consistent with a drug injection and not a
topical cream. Further, during the 2001 Tour de Suisse, one of Armstrong’s
blood samples tested positive for EPO, but at the time the testing results
indicated only a “probability” of doping and not a “positive” result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Under today’s standards it would have been a
positive result (more on this below).<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
Armstrong, aided by his long-time team manager <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_Bruyneel">Johan Bruyneel</a>, was clinical about doping. He was acutely aware of his own blood
levels and when he needed more EPO or a blood transfusion. He and Bruyneel closely
monitored each team members’ blood levels and doping schedules.
<br />
<br />
Armstrong’s doping extended over international borders,
ranging from his apartments and training routes in Spain and France, to
Ferrari’s home nation of Italy, the Atlantic island of Tenerife, and the United
States. He arranged for couriers to smuggle drugs along race routes and across
borders. He stored them in his apartments and in team vehicles. In addition,
Armstrong was the main conduit for his teammates’ drugs, often supplying them
at request.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGEjJMZKzKZWnhV0RRp86FpZZthl7Py2bG_kT2DVcmyYOSd1-YqWab781VqTSbHdnF70q8xxVgpiZ9VO5vdJPLaHQvhBnlNVTYJ469PDfyc1I7LRqLUPj_MJgNslxY2ino40inXNxnk86o/s1600/michele+ferrari.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGEjJMZKzKZWnhV0RRp86FpZZthl7Py2bG_kT2DVcmyYOSd1-YqWab781VqTSbHdnF70q8xxVgpiZ9VO5vdJPLaHQvhBnlNVTYJ469PDfyc1I7LRqLUPj_MJgNslxY2ino40inXNxnk86o/s320/michele+ferrari.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Michele Ferrari leaving and Italian courtroom</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Relationship with Dr.
Michele Ferrari. </b>Armstrong had a long and very expensive relationship with
convicted sports doper Dr. Michele Ferrari. Both the nature of this
relationship and Ferrari’s long involvement with doping are covered in detail
in the report. Over the course of his career Armstrong paid Ferrari, who he
affectionately called “Schumi”, over one million dollars. It was Ferrari who developed
and continually refined Armstrong’s doping programs from the use of EPO and
testosterone to a blood doping routine, who worked at Armstrong’s behest with
other riders on similar doping programs, and who was present at many training
camps in preparation for Armstrong’s early Tours.
<br />
<br />
USADA establishes that Armstrong maintained his relationship
with Ferrari even after the Italian was convicted in Italy for sports fraud and
after Armstrong had publicly declared that he would sever his relationship with
the now publicly disgraced doctor. The report even includes a series of emails
between Armstrong and Ferrari’s son (who acted as a conduit between Armstrong
and Ferrari) that details in black and white how Armstrong sought and received Ferrari’s
doping advice in his Tour preparation during his 2009-10 comeback.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Encouragement and
Intimidation of teammates.</b> Armstrong and Bruyneel encouraged other riders
to take up doping by hyping the purported benefits for their careers, and when
riders didn’t act as directed, enforced doping through intimidation. Armstrong
told teammate (and friend) Frankie Andreu that he needed to “get serious” about
his career and start doping. Similarly, he encouraged George Hincapie to start
doping to improve his results, which the American ultimately did after years of
clean riding. Bruyneel strong-armed David Zabriskie into doping even though
Zabriskie had vowed never to use drugs after he had watched his father collapse
into drug addiction. Armstrong threatened to throw Christian Vande Velde off
the team if he didn’t start to follow the doping program established by
Ferrari. Armstrong publicly and viciously denounced Andreu and his wife Betsy
after she testified in a civil case that in 1996, as Armstrong was about to
begin chemotherapy, she had heard him tell doctors that he had used EPO and
other drugs. (USADA demonstrates that her version of events is probably
correct.)
<br />
<br />
Armstrong’s bullying went beyond his own teammates. He
threatened Italian rider Filippo Simeoni repeatedly after the cyclist had
testified in Italian court about the doping activities of Dr. Ferrari. One
famous incident, one that I remember from watching the 2004 Tour, involved
in-race activity where Armstrong dogged and berated Simeoni during one of the
final stages after the Italian had joined a breakaway and gave him the
“zip-the-lips” gesture. The meaning was clear.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Strategies to avoid
detection. </b>USADA explains the strategies used by Armstrong and his
teammates to avoid detection. The most obvious was to be unavailable. For most
of Armstrong’s career there were not strong out-of-competition drug testing
controls and an athlete could “disappear” for training. This is exactly what
Armstrong did, training in remote locations and not informing drug control
officials of his whereabouts. There was no fear of getting caught cheating when
away from a race. During races and after cyclists had doped, they were
instructed to not answer the door if testing officials came to their hotel, to
dope late at night so they wouldn’t test positive in the morning, and there was
often a team lookout watching the parking lot ready to warn the team of the
(almost always obvious) arrival of testers.
<br />
<br />
The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i>
makes it clear that in Armstrong’s heyday doping programs were far more
sophisticated than detection programs. If testers did manage to corner
Armstrong or his team, team doctors would inject saline into their cyclists’ bloodstreams
to dilute the concentration of telltale doping markers in their blood. On one
occasion during testing a team doctor surreptitiously carried saline past a
tester and injected it into Armstrong before he was tested. Often the tests
themselves were inconclusive and Ferrari, who knew the doctors who had helped
to develop the anti-doping tests, knew tricks to make sure cyclists fell within
the “gray area” of the tests even if they were doping, virtually guaranteeing
that there wouldn’t be a clear positive.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">What Happens Next?</b>
<br />
Once the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong
Report</i> is fully digested, Armstrong’s reputation will surely be ruined.
Just today he received a double blow, <a href="http://espn.go.com/olympics/cycling/story/_/id/8514766/nike-terminates-contract-lance-armstrong">Nike terminated</a> his long-standing and
very lucrative endorsement deal, and even more tellingly, his own foundation
<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/armstrong-steps-down-charity-nike-drops-sponsorship-124049064--spt.html">forced him to step down</a> as chairman. Since 1999 Armstrong has built up a tremendous
following, especially in the United States, and that following goes well beyond
sports fans.<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a> He’s been an inspiration for cancer survivors, and
millions of people sported his yellow <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livestrong_wristband">Livestrong bracelets</a> at some point or
another. But by any rational judgment of the evidence, Armstrong has lied about
his actions and cheated to achieve his success. It hurts to be lied to, even if
the cynical part of some of us fostered quiet doubts about the full legitimacy
of Armstrong’s accomplishments. At a minimum the goodwill that has surrounded
Armstrong will be greatly eroded. Looking larger, this is just one more incident
that makes us spectators a little more skeptical, a little more doubting, a
little less eager to embrace athletes (or any public feature) as a hero. Armstrong
isn’t the first fallen hero and he won’t be the last, but each time it happens
it hurts a little bit and makes us a little more cynical. That’s not a good
thing.
<br />
<br />
USADA has submitted the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong
Report</i> to the UCI, cycling’s governing body. The UCI has three weeks (from
last Thursday) to respond to the charges, either upholding USADA’s decision to
strip Armstrong of his Tour victories and impose a lifetime ban on future
competitions (for cycling and any other sport that adheres to World Anti-Doping
Agency rules<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>). It’s hard to see how UCI could fail to uphold USADA’s
decisions, but for one point. It has been alleged, and is detailed in the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i> (and noted above), that
Armstrong tested positive for EPO at the 2001 Tour de Suisse, and then paid off
UCI officials to suppress the test results. Armstrong did donate money to UCI,
but UCI has consistently denied the positive test or that officials were bribed
by Armstrong. I wouldn’t be shocked to see UCI officials deny USADA’s charges
in an attempt to protect their organization and individual reputations.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz47uPJIjLZw_CDPzRqfiXjP_drCenlQ2Uj05axiOQX-hdD37IMz7-mIKzfboaYVLS7lXT_8HH2V3jR8Yt8K74XRN8Bzuvac9oAiEgvONVhiaDOq9BceVIfsqLV-BB-puMhoXOYFucI0EP/s1600/lance+7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz47uPJIjLZw_CDPzRqfiXjP_drCenlQ2Uj05axiOQX-hdD37IMz7-mIKzfboaYVLS7lXT_8HH2V3jR8Yt8K74XRN8Bzuvac9oAiEgvONVhiaDOq9BceVIfsqLV-BB-puMhoXOYFucI0EP/s320/lance+7.jpg" width="225" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lance's seven disqualified Tour victories</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
What has been Lance Armstrong’s response to USADA’s
allegations? For his part, Armstrong has taken a position of blanket denial,
saying that none of the USADA’s charges are true and that he will not address
them further. Unfortunately for him, denials are impotent in the face of such
substantial and damning evidence. Armstrong must address the charges
point-by-point, providing a counter or alternative explanation. If not, as is
noted in the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i>, his
silence is tantamount to an admission of guilt. Silence, or more accurately,
feigned indifference in the face of overwhelming evidence isn’t a valid
defense.
<br />
<br />
What effects might the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong
Report</i> have on profession cycling? It might just be a good thing for the
sport, providing closure on cycling’s era of doping.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a> During Armstrong’s winning
tours 1999-2005, nine men finished on the podium (top 3) at least once. Eight
of the nine have been linked to doping.<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every Tour winner from Bjarne Riis in 1996
through Alberto Contador in 2007 has been linked to doping (and Contador won in
2009 and 2010 as well). Sadly, this is the truth of the sport over the last 20
years (at least). Now with the sport’s biggest star and greatest champion cast
among the cheaters, professional cycling is left with only one option: admit the
sport’s disastrous history of doping and move on fully committed to clean
competition. It’s a fact widely admitted that the culture of cycling condoned,
and based on the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Armstrong Report</i>
actually encouraged doping. A code of silence, the Omerta, forced individuals
to hide the truth. It’s this culture of the sport that must change, and hopefully
is changing. No matter how robust in- and out-of-competition testing is and how
aggressively cheaters are pursued and punished, the riders, coaches, sponsors,
and support staff are the ones who must embrace a clean sport and not tolerate
doping. I hope this is happening. Cycling is a great sport and the Tour de
France one of the <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/07/wonderful-spectacle-of-tour-de-france.html">world’s great sporting events</a>. Maybe closure on the past will
allow this cycling generation to move forward in a clean future.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> The full title is: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Report on Proceedings Under the World Anti-Doping Code and the USADA
Protocol, Reasoned Decision of the United States Anti-Doping Agency on
Disqualification and Ineligibility</i>.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> I count myself among these followers, and
Armstrong was a hero of mine – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">was</i> a
hero of mine.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> Armstrong has <a href="http://espn.go.com/olympics/cycling/story/_/id/8348822/lance-armstrong-not-allowed-run-chicago-marathon">already been banned/prohibited</a>
from competing in official triathlons and marathons, his post-cycling sports of
choice. He’ll likely never again compete in a profession and/or officially
sanctioned athletic competition.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> Assuming of course that that era is indeed
over.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> The lone exception is Fernando Escartin, who
finished third in 1999 behind Armstrong and Alex Zulle. Such is the skeptical
eye cast on all professional cyclists that noting Escartin hasn’t been linked
to doping doesn’t mean he didn’t dope.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-86464889311060241532012-10-14T16:51:00.000-04:002012-11-12T11:53:26.369-05:00Felix Baumgartner's Historic Fall<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi51JOC7LbFnpLm8kPd_MTIwp23x6OLOyojr8w7gYGwe6UA589x62nqfEUn_Muykjx0VAPelZ9KC55r09C_hAJT3bL_cSv5Gke4DFYTJUKAfjBu_Br4-HVc0YVQL-WQ-MI3yYHORHhr8hgb/s1600/baumgartner+jump-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi51JOC7LbFnpLm8kPd_MTIwp23x6OLOyojr8w7gYGwe6UA589x62nqfEUn_Muykjx0VAPelZ9KC55r09C_hAJT3bL_cSv5Gke4DFYTJUKAfjBu_Br4-HVc0YVQL-WQ-MI3yYHORHhr8hgb/s320/baumgartner+jump-3.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Felix Baumgartner ready for his record jump</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<style>
sup
{
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</style>
Earlier today
Austrian skydiver <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/worlds-highest-skydive-daredevil-makes-record-breaking-supersonic-181843879.html">Felix Baumgartner fell from the edge of space</a>. Or more
accurately, he jumped from a higher altitude than anyone ever has, setting
records for the highest balloon ascent, highest skydive, and fastest descent (watch a few minutes of video <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNxQXQQMfkc">here</a>).
The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Bull_Stratos">successful mission</a> was the culmination of more than five years of effort by
Baumgartner and his Red Bull-sponsored team. Baumgartner had initially planned
to jump a few days ago, but poor weather delayed the attempt. However, today
the morning in Roswell, New Mexico dawned clear and calm. By mid morning the
sky was crystal blue and Baumgartner was ready. He boarded his gondola/capsule under
the colossal silver bulge of the helium balloon that would carry him to the
stratosphere. At about 11:30 AM EDT the balloon was released and Baumgartner
left the ground.
<br />
<br />
Prior to Baumgartner,
the <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2010/11/into-sky.html">highest skydive</a> was made by American Air Force pilot Joseph Kittinger who
successfully <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Excelsior">jumped from over 102,000</a> feet as part of Project Excelsior in
1960.<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
Kittinger was brought on as a consultant for Baumgartner’s mission and was
active today in walking the Austrian through his pre-jump checklist. It took
Baumgartner more than two hours to ascend in his small capsule as his helium
balloon expanded in the thinning air.<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a> Mission control released some helium from
the balloon to stop it rising at about 128,000, or just a bit higher than 24
miles. Baumgartner and his equipment were under constant observation from
ground-based cameras and a small mission control center that gave to whole undertaking
the look of a miniature NASA operation. The balloon carried Baumgartner 26,000
feet higher than Kittenger’s 1960 jump altitude, and almost 15,000 feet higher
than the previous manned balloon ascent record set by Navy Commander Malcolm
Ross and Lieutenant Commander Victor Prather, Jr.,<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a> in 1961.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBEFZPg7dawewZERWfa6uirLC6IQNa826joIgMxVf-ybh6TuI4octBAgFMmRA5cGpY8JkPMNR-6-wRtIs_8Yu-VVzuOiTC7iuTvDOL3iWQFr5jn9f-dLZlHI7zRMYtGIfGB-tkqXiwMzm5/s1600/gondola+and+balloon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBEFZPg7dawewZERWfa6uirLC6IQNa826joIgMxVf-ybh6TuI4octBAgFMmRA5cGpY8JkPMNR-6-wRtIs_8Yu-VVzuOiTC7iuTvDOL3iWQFr5jn9f-dLZlHI7zRMYtGIfGB-tkqXiwMzm5/s320/gondola+and+balloon.jpg" width="213" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Balloon and capsule leaving Earth</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The project tagline as
a “mission to the edge of space” is a more <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>marketing slogan than reality as the actual height
of 24 plus miles is less than half the altitude of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_space">true outer space</a>, which is
traditionally recognized as starting at 100 kilometers, or 62 miles above the
Earth. Nevertheless, the air pressure at 128,000 feet is only about five one
thousandths of that at sea level, which as far as humans are concerned is a
virtual vacuum. Baumgartner’s capsule and suit were pressurized and oxygenated.
The view from that height reveals the curvature of the Earth and a black sky
overhead. The entire mission was broadcast live on the internet and when
Baumgartner’s capsule door opened and he scooted into jump position it sure
looked like space with the eastern New Mexico landscape appearing as a faded
brown surface far below.
<br />
<br />
Baumgartner moved
onto a step outside of the capsule and I imagine he must have experienced a
jolt of vertigo as he looked down farther than anyone who isn’t an astronaut
has ever looked down. With a simple salute he tipped forward off of his perch
and into free fall. Jumping into such a diffused atmosphere, Baumgartner met virtually
no air resistance, nothing to slow his fall. At more traditional skydiving
altitudes, say 10,000 to 15,000 feet, air resistance prevents jumpers from
exceeding a terminal velocity, typically about 120 miles per hour. At higher
altitudes jumpers can reach much higher speeds. Kittinger set the record of 614
miles per hour during his 1960 jump. Baumgartner’s stated goals included breaking
the previous speed record and breaking the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_sound">speed of sound</a>. Within a minute he
had, reaching a maximum speed of 834 miles per hour. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The speed of sound varies based on air density
and temperature, but it has been confirmed that Baumgartner’s maximum speed,
reached at about 98,000 feet above sea level, was supersonic.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>
A little more than three minutes later Baumgartner released his parachute
ending his free fall,<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a> floating safely to the dry, scrubby ground.<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu-uN3Ns1z2qTAvQlZgfe8Hg53vy6BtbCGrK5MmytZYek_7pTKJkRhvqwET1InWw6NeSmLYy1OpPM_b_kRhmG4rArdUKmZYNyGIMi64__bD8f7aFHXJqy7bM0UA4BNr-z-b9A2I6LoUkVh/s1600/felix+baumgartner.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu-uN3Ns1z2qTAvQlZgfe8Hg53vy6BtbCGrK5MmytZYek_7pTKJkRhvqwET1InWw6NeSmLYy1OpPM_b_kRhmG4rArdUKmZYNyGIMi64__bD8f7aFHXJqy7bM0UA4BNr-z-b9A2I6LoUkVh/s320/felix+baumgartner.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Felix Baumgartner - the "supersonic" man</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So today Felix
Baumgartner has taken mankind higher and faster than we’ve ever been outside of
a plane or spacecraft. I don’t know how long it might be before someone goes
higher or faster, maybe it will take another 52 years (i.e., it's been 52 years since Kittinger's jump), but it was pretty cool
to see someone jump from the “edge of space” and reach speeds as fast as a
fighter jet. Congratulations to Felix Baumgartner and his team on his historic
fall.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> I’ve written about this jump and
other successful attempts by man to go higher and faster in <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2010/11/into-sky.html">this earlier post</a>.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> The balloon would expand to a maximum
of some 30 million cubic feet. Imagine a spherical balloon with a diameter of
almost 400 feet.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> Prather tragically died after the
successful ascent. The balloon landed in the Gulf of Mexico as planned, but during
their recovery Prather lost his grip and slipped from the helicopter hoist. He
was weighed down by his suit and drowned.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> On video it was impossible to
hear a sonic boom and in fact the air at 98,000 feet was probably too thin for
there to have been much of one.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> In total Baumgartner’s free fall
lasted about 4 minutes and 22 seconds, which is actually twelve seconds less
than Kittinger’s 1960 jump, so Kittinger still holds the record for the longest
(by time) free fall.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> The
perception of floating down on a parachute is a bit misleading. A person descending
under a parachute is still falling at about ten miles per hour, which can lead
to painful or even injurious landings. I can attest to this as on my first and only
skydive I landed in tandem with my instructor. His legs slipped and we fell
hard on our butts. Fortunately, the pain was mitigated by the adrenaline
coursing through my body still thrilled from the jump.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-50312203185724619872012-10-08T14:42:00.000-04:002012-11-12T11:53:34.218-05:00The Insidious Influence of Political Polls<style>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrmh6n0irpSCmj5pdwHRl2ZJlVRsPI8vXNn0oeBzEUzbWozSaBRwW9mmBLECkfxdpQS7OO1sBzCGgx_Hz_NLPdimDHyQ7HSnb6Lca6XyX1HtQbygvSPMPFLqzHvsjvjvZvhGxjF6KgV1N_/s1600/polling+by+state.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrmh6n0irpSCmj5pdwHRl2ZJlVRsPI8vXNn0oeBzEUzbWozSaBRwW9mmBLECkfxdpQS7OO1sBzCGgx_Hz_NLPdimDHyQ7HSnb6Lca6XyX1HtQbygvSPMPFLqzHvsjvjvZvhGxjF6KgV1N_/s320/polling+by+state.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Electoral votes based on recent polls</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_U.S._Presidential_Election">U.S. Presidential Election</a> is just a month away, and if
you’re at all curious about how the election may go, you’re in luck, just turn
your attention to the latest political polls. You can compare the national approval ratings
for president Obama and (former) Governor Romney, how favorably they’re viewed
by “likely” voters, and who’s leading who in swing states like Ohio, Virginia,
and Florida. You can note which has the advantage on issues like unemployment,
foreign affairs, and government debt. You can survey how the candidates compare
among young voters, retirees, minorities, and women. You can follow how the
race is tracking on a day-to-day basis. If you’re interested in just about any
measure of how Americans may vote on November 6, there’s likely a poll for it. They’re
all just a Google search away, knock yourself out.
<br />
<br />
Political polls are everywhere in the run-up to every major
election, they’re quoted by the media, consulted by the campaigns, and, they’re
bad.
<br />
<br />
To explain why this is, I’d ask that you first consider a
question: Why should you, a voter deciding on how to cast your ballot come
Election Day, care at all about political polls?
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Polls Aren’t Science</b>
<br />
Pollsters, and there’s a bunch,<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a> will tell you that
their polls are scientific and accurate. This is not true. Their argument is
that their methodology ensures that a statistically representative sample of
voters is used in every poll. The overall number of responders, the political
leanings of those responders, the questions asked, etc., are carefully calibrated
to give an outcome that is accurate within a small margin of error. This gives the
sheen of science to the whole effort, as if polls are just another demographic
study based on heaps of concrete data. They’re not. It’s certainly true that over
the decades pollsters have learned how to better sample the population. Gone
are the days when polls showed Alf Landon<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a> beating FDR. But at the end of the day,
polls are based on the responses of people, and when it comes to people and
politics, you can throw science out the window.
<br />
<br />
Consider the emphasis in the following question: “Do you
agree that President Obama has done a poor job in addressing unemployment?” Admittedly,
this is a very simplified example of obvious bias, which is supposed to be scrubbed
from all modern poll questions. An unbiased question would better read: “Do you
approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling the economy?” But here
is an actual question from <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/obama-holds-advantage-issues-romney-remains/2012/10/01/a1c09e72-0bb6-11e2-97a7-45c05ef136b2_page.html">a Washington Post poll</a> from late last month: “Do you
think the federal government should or should not pursue policies that try to
reduce the gap between wealthy and less well-off Americans?” Would you call
this question unbiased? Maybe you think it is. Or maybe you consider terms like
“reduce the gap”, “wealthy”, and “less well-off” as loaded and apt to nudge
responders in a certain direction. What if the question were reworded this way:
“Do you think the federal government should or should not pursue policies that
try to shift wealth from those Americans better-off to those less well–off?” Which
wording is more biased and are they likely to elicit different responses? This
shows you just how hard, and maybe impossible, it is to actually extract bias
from any political discussion. If you can’t take bias out of the questions, how
can you have an unbiased poll?
<br />
<br />
Then there is sampling and response bias. Most polls are
conducted by calling people with landline phones, which is becoming an
increasing anachronistic approach in the era of mobile communications. Consider
the constantly shifting demographics (age, sex, economic background) of people
that use landlines as opposed to cell phones. What groups are over- or under-represented
in surveys conducted in this manner? Further, when are the surveys conducted,
during what days and at what times (i.e., who is home when the calls are
placed?)? How might this affect the bias of the results?
<br />
<br />
With response bias people may answer in a manner contrary to
what they believe or refuse to participate at all. After all, how honest are
people when talking to strangers about politics, a sensitive subject for many? What
type of person is willing (and available) to participate? How representative is
that person, or that aggregated group of people, of the voting population at
large? These questions aren’t easy to answer or dismiss.
<br />
<br />
Here’s a good example of how these factors can combine for
bad polling. Back in 2004, pre-election polling showed a very close race in Virginia
between President Bush and Senator John Kerry. And this seemed to be confirmed
on Election Day when exit polls indicated that Kerry was performing very well.
Yet when the actual votes were counted, Bush led Kerry by a wide margin at all
times (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004#Results_by_state">he won comfortably</a> 54% to 46%). The networks didn’t call Virginia in Bush’s
favor for many hours after the voting ended based on the strength of the inaccurate
pre-election and exit polls.<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
Polls are bandied about as accurate and unbiased. In other
words as a useful indicators of how the public is likely to vote. But they’re
often neither accurate nor unbiased. What’s the practical difference between a
bad poll and the daily political spin issued by a campaign? Intentional or not,
aren’t they both forms of misinformation?
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Politics is Not a
Spectator Sport</b>
<br />
It’s hard not to see the same relationship between political
polls and politics as we see between sports and sports statistics. Professional
and college sports are one of the tent poles of the vast and growing American
entertainment complex, and statistics are the drug of sports enthusiasts;<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>
the careful tracking of performance, the rankings, the orderly measure of
players, teams, and leagues. There’s long been a cottage industry built around
<a href="http://sabr.org/">baseball statistical research</a>; fantasy football, which is all about statistics,
is one of the <a href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8424339/fantasy-football-destroying-our-perceptions-nfl-athletes">most popular recreational activities in America</a>; the essence of
entire sports are based on standings and rankings, and a player’s worth is
determined in hard data. As a nation of spectators we love to watch sports –
you could probably argue that the next Superbowl will be a more watched event
than the upcoming election – and statistics give us more to talk about and
discuss. It seems weightier to parse a team’s statistics and analyze
performance based on numbers than to simply describe and appreciate the physical
competition. It’s the data-science companion to the physical action-art.
<br />
<br />
For some, politics is the sport of choice. But of course
politics isn’t a sport, it’s not entertainment. At its core politics is about
how as a society we choose to live together, and it involves complex, convolved
issues. Issues that are hard to fully understand yet have an important effect
on everyday life. It’s hard to understand the current tax structure and the
implications of changes to the tax code; health care is a confusing tangle of
doctors and medicine, hospitals and insurance, regulations and paperwork; unemployment,
gay marriage, abortion, education, government debt, the European financial
crisis, war in the Middle East, they all dominate the headlines but none of
them have easy solutions. The real societal issues of the day, the issues that make
up the political landscape, all require strenuous discussion and wearisome compromise.
It’s hard, not fun; it’s tedious, not exciting.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEyjGtGF27IggKD4ViiwaS29cs1eWPl4s8QEtKwb8A_iDqrWYbxV10mndxtQ6Xo0AEtyl-59KkgYcfFT9QuJ_8y9IeDEkKfgJ4sFSza7sKmzPFJHLn301WqA4Z2qH2p6bSsSlgkByeknBK/s1600/CableNewsLogos25.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEyjGtGF27IggKD4ViiwaS29cs1eWPl4s8QEtKwb8A_iDqrWYbxV10mndxtQ6Xo0AEtyl-59KkgYcfFT9QuJ_8y9IeDEkKfgJ4sFSza7sKmzPFJHLn301WqA4Z2qH2p6bSsSlgkByeknBK/s1600/CableNewsLogos25.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Just a few of the networks that make sport of politics</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
But following political polls, seeing who’s leading who, how
the race is going, is exciting.<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a> Following a campaign to see if candidate X
is gaining ground on candidate Y is a lot more fun than wading into, and
thinking deeply about, dense political policy. Just consider that
sports/competition terms that elections are couched in: the “race” for a
nomination or election, which candidate or party is “leading” in the polls, is
the trailing candidate “gaining” on the leader or is the leader “pulling away”,
is there a “game changing” moment in a campaign, what “moves” does the trailing
candidate have. And these are but a small sampling. Polls are the data that
fuel this spectating. Media can better attract their audience by pushing poll
data than by boring them with the nuances of one candidate’s position versus
another. This sport-making of politics may make for better television but it
doesn’t make for a more informed electorate. Fewer political polls and more
serious political discussion would.
<br />
<br />
So this is another way that polls are bad, they turn
politics into sport, and distract from the actual point of an election. We hold
elections so we (society) can come to a loose consensus on how we want
government to behave and what policies we want enacted/followed/amended/repealed,
etc. over the next couple of years. Only the most cynical among us see
elections as entertainment, yet that’s how they’re framed for us and polls are
an integral part of this altered perspective.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Insidious
Influence of Polls</b>
<br />
But the worst way that political polls are bad is in the way
that they can actually influence voters and affect elections. Any voter’s
decision on who to vote for should be based on their values and on how they
believe any particular candidate will represent those values, or pursue a
platform congenial to that voter’s desires, or at the very least, lead in a
manner that they (the voter) believes will best serve the interests of the
country. You can dice this perspective any number of ways to determine what
that specifically means to each voter, but what it should never mean is that a
voter chooses based on how others are voting.
<br />
<br />
Yet this is precisely what political polls can lead to,
bandwagon voting. I’m sure you’re familiar with the bandwagon effect. Returning
briefly to sports, a successful team picks up a lot of fans who want to share
in the winning spirit. These fans jump on the bandwagon. The same fans are known
to jump off the bandwagon when times turn sour. Well with voting it’s the same
way. People want to vote for the winner. And who’s going to win but the person
leading in the polls.
<br />
<br />
This is exactly contrary to how people should vote. Casting
your ballot in favor of how the majority is going to vote because you want to
be part of the winning “team” is selfless voting. I’m using the term “selfless”
in the negative sense. Voting made not based on informed self-interest but upon
group-think; voting to be part of the crowd. I don’t think this type of voting
should be encouraged, yet the bandwagon effect is a well-established phenomenon
and it is abetted by polls that show who is “winning” a campaign heading into
Election Day.
<br />
<br />
So going back to the question posed as the beginning of this
post (i.e., Why should you care about polls?), is there even one good answer? They’re
false entertainment, often misleading, and they distract from the genuine
responsibility of each voter. Polls are bad, and personally I can’t wait until
November 7 when I won’t have to hear any more about them, at least until the
next election.<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> To name a few: Zogby, Rasmussen, Gallup,
Harris, Pew, Neilsen, and then every news network (Foxnews, MSNBC, CBS, ABC,
NBC, CNN, etc.).
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> Alf Landon was the 1936 GOP candidate and he
was annihilated by incumbent Franklin Roosevelt who garnered 61% of the popular
vote, 523 of 531 electoral votes, and 46 of the 48 states.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> Whereas this writer, with no polling data or
expertise, clearly saw that president Bush would win in Virginia once the first
20 percent of the votes were in. Such is the belief in polls that even the
obvious was not enough to change the minds of the political experts
commentating for the major new networks.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> Male sports enthusiasts anyway, and hardcore
sports fans are still mostly male.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> For some people anyway.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> This of course presumes that the polls
themselves don’t become a major story, like they have in past elections, like say
2002 and 2004, when exit polls in many states (see Virginia discussion above) were
wildly inaccurate and there was much questioning in the media in the days that
follow about how the polls could have been so far off.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-2603858589167237272012-09-27T21:43:00.001-04:002012-11-12T11:53:41.931-05:00Five Reasons I Won’t Be Watching Season 2 of Homelandby Conroy<br />
<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRy0d07SU7X-17NRLnINjCfl9cO0mYAXrkXJFengfurmsGk6v4GrqhyHpKOdmhYjckk-E_DKlKGP9Iz9TRp-xZrIoSgBYKPOAJ3r6GbhE3RzXxmSMKmr3IGYbgl34wX0cBE5jD6qnC1roB/s1600/homeland.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRy0d07SU7X-17NRLnINjCfl9cO0mYAXrkXJFengfurmsGk6v4GrqhyHpKOdmhYjckk-E_DKlKGP9Iz9TRp-xZrIoSgBYKPOAJ3r6GbhE3RzXxmSMKmr3IGYbgl34wX0cBE5jD6qnC1roB/s1600/homeland.jpg" /></a></div>
On Sunday, the critically acclaimed CIA/terrorist drama <a href="http://www.sho.com/sho/homeland/home"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i></a> will begin its second season on
Showtime. It’s a well-timed return as just this past week <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> was the toast of television, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/23/showbiz/emmy-awards/index.html">triumphing impressively</a> at
the Primetime Emmy Awards<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>, winning outstanding series, lead actor
(Damian Lewis), lead actress (Claire Danes), and writing, all in the drama
categories. An impressive feat considering the competition included shows as
lauded and accomplished as <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mad Men</i>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Breaking Bad</i>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Game of Thrones</i>, and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Downton
Abbey</i>.
<br />
<br />
For those of you who haven’t seen the first season…<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">spoiler
alert</i></b>…it centers on the efforts of a rebellious CIA officer, Carrie
Matheson (Danes), investigating a rescued American POW, Sgt. Nicholas Brody
(Lewis), just returned from Afghanistan after eight years in captivity. She
believes that Brody has been “turned” by his captors and is now a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Manchurian Candidate</i>-like Al Qaeda
sleeper agent. She battles to convince her increasingly skeptical superiors of
her heterodox theory while also struggling with her personal instabilities,
including crippling bipolar-ism. She’s right though, Brody has been turned. We
see him ping-pong between a devastated POW trying to reintegrate into his old
life and a hidden terrorist planning an attack on American soil.
<br />
<br />
Danes is a superb actress and her work in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> is worthy of awards. For his
part, Lewis does a fine job as a man torn between radically different desires.
And both are supported by a strong cast, most notably Mandy Patinkin as Saul
Berenson, Carrie’s CIA mentor and moral guide. The shows are well directed, the
production values are high, and there’s a lot of interesting and fairly convincing
through-the-looking-glass detail about terrorism and modern intelligence work.
To put it simply, the show has a lot going for it. It’s already the most
watched program in Showtime’s history, and with the Emmy attention and strong
word-of-mouth, the second season is expected to capture the eyes of a much wider
audience. But not mine.
<br />
<br />
I hereby submit that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i>
is in fact a bad show, and offer five reasons why I won’t be watching season 2.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Where’s the FBI?</b>
<br />
The show depicts the efforts of Dane’s CIA officer and many
of her colleagues to investigate, interrogate, surveil, bug the property of,
and spy by various other methods on: Sgt. Brody, foreign diplomats, other
American citizens, suspected terrorists, to name but a few, each one
living/residing in America. The CIA may be metonymic for the entire spook
community and all its covert activities, but this is not what the agency does.
Investigation of suspected criminals in America is the responsibility of law
enforcement agencies, not intelligence agencies. While the CIA would have an
interest in suspected terrorists and terrorist organizations in the U.S., the
investigations, arrests, and prosecutions would be led first and foremost by the
FBI (and supported by local law enforcement and other Homeland Security
agencies).
<br />
<br />
The FBI is largely absent from <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i>, and when present is shown as a hostile obstacle to Matheson
and her colleagues. It’s no secret that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement
agencies have struggled to get along and share information, both before and
after 9/11, but what’s shown in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i>
goes way beyond reality. And so we see CIA officers carrying guns,
participating in raids on D.C. buildings, and clearly violating the civil
rights of citizens and foreigners. This may be fun for the plotting and action,
but it’s another glaring break between <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i>
and the realism it claims to portray.<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Citizen Brody</b>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqOF8A8MTn292591m2KNmSJ_-0SpnboDkxcJYM-ij6TSMVsvdOw3LTjvCuz6q7s6f-WUn6FNR4uNVbFmHvh8ZWZxBz3v7CYyCXgWT8GQ_vqYwfa7WobQFvfoq3U1Gqodw-ZHkNOBA7hJIi/s1600/sgt+brody-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqOF8A8MTn292591m2KNmSJ_-0SpnboDkxcJYM-ij6TSMVsvdOw3LTjvCuz6q7s6f-WUn6FNR4uNVbFmHvh8ZWZxBz3v7CYyCXgWT8GQ_vqYwfa7WobQFvfoq3U1Gqodw-ZHkNOBA7hJIi/s320/sgt+brody-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sgt. Nicholas Brody</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
One of the major plot developments through season 1 was the
rise of Sgt. Brody from war hero to politician. By the end of the season Brody
was on the cusp of being elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Supposedly, his being a war hero with a great story of perseverance and
survival, and having a beautiful wife and picture perfect children is enough to
convince the Vice President’s Chief of Staff that he should fill a soon-to-be
vacant House seat. Are we really expected to believe that this is how politics
in 21<sup>st</sup> century America works? Brody is a sergeant, which means he likely
doesn’t even have a college education. He’s not a lawyer or business man. He
has no fortune or insider connections to the types of money and influence
needed to organize a political campaign, garner needed support, develop an
agenda, etc. He has no public service background<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a> or political
experience. In other words, he’s a pure amateur without any of the advantages
that amateurs need to win at the highest level of American politics.
<br />
<br />
Perhaps the writers thought of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_mccain">John McCain</a> when developing
this plotline. He was (McCain) a POW who returned to America after a long,
brutal captivity to become a famous politician and run for President. But
McCain was a pilot who graduated from the Naval Academy and was the wealthy son
and grandson of four star admirals. After returning from Vietnam, McCain was a
naval liaison to the U.S. Senate where he gained his first entre into politics.
He was politically connected as witnessed by having two U.S. Senators serve as
groomsmen at his second wedding in 1980 (and he married into an even wealthier
family). Brody has none of these advantages. He’s depicted in the show as
suffering from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-traumatic_stress_disorder">post-traumatic stress disorder </a>(PTSD) and under the thrall of
Abu Nazir, a terrorist mastermind. And the way he’s selected for political
office is contrived and over simple. This plotline, which is going to be a
central focus of season 2, is unbelievable.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Bad Geography</b>
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> is set in
and around Washington, D.C. Much action takes place at CIA headquarters in
Langley, Virginia, at the Brody home somewhere in suburban Virginia,<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a> in
downtown Washington, near one of the region’s airports, at a lake house
somewhere in the city’s western hinterlands, etc. Unfortunately for the show, it
isn’t filmed in and around Washington. Instead, almost all of the series is
filmed in and around Charlotte, NC. This was done because it’s cheaper to film
in Charlotte than Washington. The problem is that Charlotte doesn’t look like
Washington. Charlotte has skyscrapers, Washington doesn’t. Washington has
famous landmarks and monuments, (and at the risk of offending North Carolina
readers) Charlotte doesn’t. Washington has a fairly iconic and recognizable
look, with its huge public buildings and their neoclassical architecture,
low-rise density, abundance of aforementioned monuments, setting on the Potomac,
and so forth.
<br />
<br />
Charlotte, on the other hand, is like many other burgeoning
southern cities: its downtown is shimmering and spread out and tall, its density
is fairly low, its streets are wide and in a grid pattern. There’s no major
waterway, the topography is noticeably different, and so on.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGqd_i4dRJTS-ZO9XamyXXHHf4BoPrutSfYADtolijFUzyzZySSSIGbs0CSVI_4nvo3EugkufKjyBUjgF5rS9Z6rk8zt8e-Hw5pLrBpGeRWaBSwcPEraPSdZb_27DgWmAir4KZbfbYISa1/s1600/charlotte.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGqd_i4dRJTS-ZO9XamyXXHHf4BoPrutSfYADtolijFUzyzZySSSIGbs0CSVI_4nvo3EugkufKjyBUjgF5rS9Z6rk8zt8e-Hw5pLrBpGeRWaBSwcPEraPSdZb_27DgWmAir4KZbfbYISa1/s1600/charlotte.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Does this city look anything like Washington, D.C.?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I find these discrepancies very distracting. It’s obvious
that the action of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> isn’t
actually taking place in Washington and that detracts from the verisimilitude
of the show. Consider how the spare desert setting of Albuquerque<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>
is incorporated in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Breaking Bad</i>, how
bustling Manhattan is part of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mad Men</i>,
or how the mean streets of Baltimore became a major character in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Wire</i>. Setting matters and faking one
city for another doesn’t work when the charade is apparent. If the producers
wanted to substitute one city for another – a very common practice in film and
TV – then they must do a better job of it. Early in season 1 we saw Brody run
by the Capitol. That was effective. Why not more of these small shoots in Washington
to bolster the illusion of the events actually being there? By the end of
season 1 we see the Vice President nearly assassinated on a downtown street
that no one could confuse for Washington, a terrorist interrogated in a high
rise that exists nowhere in the Capital region, an airport that in no way
resembles Dulles, Reagan, or even BWI. We even see a park that’s supposed to be
the Gettysburg battlefield (it’s not). The examples go on and on and I’m sure
they’ll carry right into season 2.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Terrorist Brody</b>
<br />
The central fact of Homeland is that Sgt. Nicholas Brody is
a terrorist. The drama is that only his terrorist masters and a few people at
the CIA know it (or think they know it). After being captured by terrorists in
2003 he is physically and psychologically tortured, even being forced to beat a
friend and fellow prisoner to death. Finally, reaching his breaking point, he
is offered hope. A man is kind to him, gives him food, shelter, a warm bath,
and comfortable living conditions. This man is the terrorist leader Abu Nazir. He
is generous and civilized towards Brody. Eventually he has Brody tutor his
young son in English. Brody develops a close relationship with the boy. One day
as the boy walks to school he is killed in a missile strike from an American drone.
Brody is devastated by his death. An indeterminate time later, Brody is rescued
from a terrorist compound by American special forces. He returns home to a hero’s
welcome.
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
When Brody returns he displays signs of PTSD, he secretly
worships as a Muslim, and he lies during his CIA debriefing (and beats the
polygraph). We the audience are kept in doubt until halfway through season 1
when Brody finally meets with a diplomat working with Nazir. Not long
thereafter he, seemingly devoted to Nazir, gets involved in a complicated plot
to kill the Vice President. (A plot it’s worth noting doesn’t succeed.<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>)
<br />
<br />
Here are my problems with this portrayal:<br />
<ul>
<li>We’ve seen the war hero return as dangerous, if
surreptitious, traitor many times before. Most notably in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Manchurian_Candidate_%281962_film%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Manchurian Candidate</i></a> (both versions). It’s
a rather far-fetched concept anyway, and in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i>
it doesn’t have the benefit of being original.
</li>
<li>Brody is shown as being deeply committed to the terrorist
cause. He goes to great lengths to keep his true loyalties hidden. He is
willing to sacrifice himself to kill Americans. He implicitly rejects the love
and security of his family when he commits himself to the plot to kill the Vice
President. This could happen, but the storytelling doesn’t take us there. We
see Brody after he returns from Afghanistan. We see him with his wife and
children. We see him receiving kindness from friends and adulation from the
press and public. We as an audience don’t see why he is set on throwing all that
away and killing Americans. Perhaps sensing this, one of the late season 1
episodes is devoted to showing Brody with Nazir and his son. But this peek into
what happened during his captivity is overwhelmed by the bulk of the action,
which takes place in present day America. We the audience are left to doubt why
this American soldier would want to kill other Americans once he’s back home. This
is big story hole; we’re never given enough reason to believe that Brody would behave
like the terrorist we’re being shown he is.
</li>
<li>A major plot point is that the Vice President ordered the
drone attack that resulted in the death of Abu Nazir’s son. This despite intelligence
that the target of the attack was next to a school and a drone strike was
likely to result in civilian casualties. Ostensibly this is given as the reason
for Abu Nazir’s plot against the Vice President and Brody’s willingness to
carry it out. But it raises many vexing questions: Why is the Vice President
ordering CIA drone attacks? Why does the CIA listen to a Vice President who has
no power to order such a strike? Why does Nazir use his best asset (Brody) to
target of all people the Vice President?<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a></li>
</ul>
<br />
Taken individually these issues may not amount to much, but
together I think they undermine much of the story. I don’t see why a man like
Brody, a true-blue American, would become a terrorist and the show doesn’t do
enough to convince me otherwise. Then as the terrorist plot unfolds, we’re
underwhelmed by its scope and execution. And the entire
American-turned-terrorist angle leads to my biggest issue with the show.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Moral Equivalence</b>
<br />
There’s much hand-wringing within the
walls of the show’s CIA, represented by Saul Berenson who’s put up as the moral
center of the show, over the drone attack ordered by the Vice President. The
attack is shown as deliberately indifferent to civilian life. Or to put it
another way, it’s shown as a cold-blooded terrorist attack. No better than
the murders carried out by the show’s actual terrorists. There’s a term for
this, it’s called moral equivalence. And ignoring all manner of nuance and the
fact that real world outcomes are often far messier than the best laid plans,
let me state bluntly that moral equivalence between America and terrorists is wrong.
<br />
<br />
Terrorism, the use of violence and terror as a means of
coercion, is evil. America, and American power, no matter of ill-used, is not.
The very fact that there is much American hand-wringing over incidents like misplaced
drone strikes or, say, abuse of prisoners, is evidence that the American
populace is capable of an introspection unknown among terrorists, who by their
nature are fanatics. I could write a long thesis on this point, but I’ll spare
you that and simply write that a show that suggests a moral equivalence between
American and terrorist actions has lost the plot.<a name="15"><a href="#16"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">8</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> may
continue for several more seasons, but I suspect that the issues I’ve noted
will hamstring, maybe even undermine the show before too long. I won’t be
watching to see that unfold.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> Not to be confused with the Daytime Emmys,
Sports Emmys, News Emmys, Regional Emmys, International Emmys, etc. Television
spends a lot of time praising itself.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> This is one way that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> is like many of the formulaic cop and criminal shows that
litter network television. In these programs (Hawaii 5-O, for just one example)
the cops seem to live outside the law, get into frequent gun fights, wreak
havoc in their communities, have access to fantastic technologies and virtually
any information they need. It all adds up to be preposterous and unwatchable
(or so you would think, but these are among the most popular programs on TV).
In other words, these are silly, mindless entertainments, and the exact
antithesis of what <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> seems to
aspire to be.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> Excepting of course the sacrifice he made to go
fight in Afghanistan and then survive a brutal imprisonment for eight years.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> And it's a really convenient plot point that Brody's home is in Washington, which makes all of the plot mechanics work. As a soldier, he could have been stationed from anywhere, and it's a relatively small chance that he would live in the Washington area.<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> <i>Breaking Bad</i> was initially going to be set in Los
Angeles, but budget constraints forced the producers to move the setting to New
Mexico. But relative blandness of Albuquerque, the wide desert vistas, and
sunny skies serve the show very well. Neatly mirroring the bland, anonymous
reputation of Walter White and his massive if still unrealized ambitions.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> And it can’t succeed, which we know beforehand
because that would mean Brody’s death and no second season.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a> The whole
Vice-President-directing-covert-military-actions-while-the-President-is-absent
story seems like an obvious allusion to leftists claims about the Bush
(W) Presidency and the sinister presence of Dick Cheney. Though the young Vice
President in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Homeland</i> is physically
quite distinct from the grizzled Cheney.
<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">8.</span></b></a></a> Consider for instance that the exact same argument
could be made (and has been made) about American and British saturation/fire
bombing against German and Japanese cities (read civilians) during World War II
compared to the Holocaust and brutal murder of millions of Chinese. No one,
including this writer, will cite the massive aerial bombardments of Axis
populations late in WWII as the proudest moments in the Allied war effort. But
no one can make an argument that it is equivalent to the horrors – the evil – committed
by the Nazis and militarized Japanese Empire.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-88395340235857389632012-09-16T23:52:00.000-04:002012-11-12T11:53:48.698-05:00The Hottest Place on Earthby Conroy
<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguXs3mvoh5B0afGuNw6F9eye2h0mGyddFNXONVy94e3EJUaqJ7AIHl4pqXH6y49_l54EpibTeq3OV9zreyw8bc3Iz4332bSW8KYRFoQRLKgpen6_nreeEB4j1-w09CitxZYhlXq40hMowK/s1600/death+valley+-+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguXs3mvoh5B0afGuNw6F9eye2h0mGyddFNXONVy94e3EJUaqJ7AIHl4pqXH6y49_l54EpibTeq3OV9zreyw8bc3Iz4332bSW8KYRFoQRLKgpen6_nreeEB4j1-w09CitxZYhlXq40hMowK/s1600/death+valley+-+2.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Burning Death Valley</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
For
those of you who, like me, are interested in the extremes of our natural world,
there is <a href="http://www.weather.com/news/death-valley-new-world-temperature-record-20120913">a new hottest place on Earth</a>: Death Valley, California.<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>
The record was set in the small town of Furnace Creek and now stands at a roasting
134 degrees Fahrenheit (56.7 degrees Celsius). What’s unusual about this record
is that it wasn’t set this month or even this year, but way back in July 1913
(99 years ago). What’s even more unusual is that the new record is lower, less scorching<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>,
than the previous record of 136 degrees measured (not quite as) way back in
1922 at El Aziziya, Libya. <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/01/extreme-temperatures.html">As I’ve written about before</a>, this 90-year-old
record has been dubious from the start, and now the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) has invalidated it.
<br />
<br />
Just
to be clear, the record for highest temperature refers to air temperature
measured in the shade. Temperatures in the sun can rise well above 134 degrees
and ground temperatures heated by the sun can be higher still, almost to the
boiling point. (In comparison, the hottest bodies of water tend to be merely
warm, like bathwater.<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>) Getting back to El Aziziya, a quick
glance at the map shows that it is located not deep in the Sahara where one
might expect a record temperature to be recorded, but just 25 miles from the cool
Mediterranean and its moderating breezes. This seems like an unusual place for
the planet’s high temperature to occur. The WMO determined that the El Aziziya
temperature was the result of the weather station being improperly placed on a black
tarmac surface with the thermometer too close to the ground, and thus
artificially increasing the measured high temperature. Further, the measurement
was probably misread by an inexperienced record keeper. High temperatures
measured before and after 1922 didn’t come close the record, lending support
that the 1922 reading was an unlikely anomaly. The upshot is that El Aziziya no
longer holds the record.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Crucible of Death Valley</b>
<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Valley">Death Valley</a> is really hot. On July 11 this year the temperature peaked at 128
degrees, not exactly threatening the record, but close enough to tell you that in
summer Death Valley is indeed a burning, fiery furnace, a sun’s anvil.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4 </span></sup></b></a></a>But
Death Valley is a place of extremes. Not only is it hot, but it’s also the
lowest point in the Western Hemisphere, 282 feet below sea level, and the
driest place in North America, receiving a little more than two inches of
precipitation each year. It’s situated in eastern California and flanked on the
east and west by high mountain ranges.<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a> Moisture from the Pacific Ocean is
squeezed out of the air by the mountain ranges to the west of Death Valley, and
the dry air heats as it sinks under cloudless skies, baking the desert floor. If
your idea of hell is flaming heat, then summer in Death Valley is hell.<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
There
is a peculiar type of individual that chooses to test themselves in this
crucible. Each year 80 or so runners participate in the <a href="http://www.badwater.com/">Badwater Ultramarathon</a>,
which is described by the race organizers as the “world’s toughest foot race.” Ultramarathoners
are a rare lot. These are endurance runners who take on races of 50, 75, 100 or
more miles, running hour-upon-hour (and sometimes day-after-day) through
exhaustion, pain, injury, and mental and psychological distress. For the
runners, these races become tests of the body and soul. That’s why ultramarathoners
will gulp thin air at high altitudes or suffer through frostbite in freezing
winter cold or cross the cauldron of Death Valley in July. For most people, the
effort required for an ultramarathon passes over the line from personal test
and fitness goal to deranged masochism.<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYZW96SgElaxxLWSvvYeIZyD3fwfR8KjyoGUKZ54FenSAiRB_rFEnIpGqivu29M6f7aqiX5NhZqmSUz4-okcOwTr6tssKx5Qbj8hlnR5SjU0hPaO1QxLoZTIWIBUg9dBUa-MTptsv3-fg9/s1600/badwater_ultra_marathon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYZW96SgElaxxLWSvvYeIZyD3fwfR8KjyoGUKZ54FenSAiRB_rFEnIpGqivu29M6f7aqiX5NhZqmSUz4-okcOwTr6tssKx5Qbj8hlnR5SjU0hPaO1QxLoZTIWIBUg9dBUa-MTptsv3-fg9/s320/badwater_ultra_marathon.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A lonesome Badwater ultramarathoner</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
And
it’s a rare ultramarathoner who can complete the Badwater race within the allotted
60 hours. To do so, you have to run over a 135-mile course across Death Valley
and then halfway up the slope of nearby Mount Whitney. The race requires you to
grapple with not only the deadly summer heat but lung-busting thin air at high
altitude. So how does Death Valley treat these runners? In his winning debut, legendary
ultramarathoner Scott Jurek stopped periodically to submerse himself in a man-sized
cooler filled with ice water (each runner is attended by a team – the race
itself offers no support – with food, water, medical help, emotional and psychological
sustenance, and all other logistical support). The heat off the road can reach 150
degrees and actually melt shoe soles and burn feet and calves. The over-like
air forces the body into a panic and blood to the extremities, trying in vain
to keep the runner’s core from overheating. Dehydration and severe gastro-intestinal
distress are par for the course. The conditions are so intense, and the body
and mind so stretched, that runners often hallucinate, seeing mirages rise from
the shimmering desert. Sounds pleasant doesn’t it?
<br />
<br />
Very
few of us will ever run the Badwater race (or anything similar), but the summer
conditions in Death Valley are so extreme that if you were left there with no
water or relief from the sun, you’d be dead within a day or two.<a name="15"><a href="#16"><span style="color: red;"><sup><b>8</b></sup></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;"></span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A Hotter Place?</b>
<br />
No
place on earth is hotter than Death Valley in summer, but it’s well north of
the tropics and so is actually very mild in the winter. The average December
temperature at Furnace Creek is a cool 52 degrees, and the record low is -9 degrees
F (-22.8 C). There are other places on Earth that never get a respite from the
high heat. Perhaps the hottest place on the planet by average temperature is
found <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallol,_Ethiopia">Dallol</a> in remote far northern Ethiopia.
<br />
<br />
Dallol,
like Death Valley, sits at the bottom of a deep depression, about 430 feet
below sea level, in a dry desert. But unlike Death Valley, Dallol’s latitude is
well within the tropics (just 14 degrees north) and so it cooks under an intense
sun all year long. There was a salt mining operation at Dallol in the early
1960s. During that time the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">average</i>
yearly temperature was a suffocating 94 degrees, and the average daily high was
106 degrees. Today Dallol is uninhabited, the salt operation long since abandoned.
It’s a place that, like Antarctica, is unfit for man.
<br />
<br />
Death
Valley is home to only a few thousand people. But there are some major cities
that experience extreme heat. Here are the record high temperatures for some of
these cities: Kuwait, Kuwait (128), Khartoum, Sudan (127), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
(126), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (126), Basra, Iraq (126), Phoenix, Arizona (122), Baghdad,
Iraq (122), Bahrain (122), Doha Qatar (122), Karachi, Pakistan (118), Dubai,
UAE (117), Tucson, Arizona (117), Las Vegas, Nevada (117), and Murcia, Spain
(117).
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> It’s
more accurate to note that there is a new highest <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">measured</i> temperature on Earth because there’s no way to verify that
the record measured air temperature at one weather station is a record for any
time across the entire planet.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> It
would be inappropriate to write that the new record is “colder” than the
previous record.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> The
warmest body of water (or the warmest part of the warmest bodies of water) is
hard to determine, but candidates include the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Indian
Ocean, and Caribbean Sea. This of course ignores small geo-thermally heated bodies
of water like geysers and natural hot springs.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> Film
buffs may recognize these descriptions from dialogue spoken in that ultimate
desert movie (and cinema masterpiece) <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Lawrence
of Arabia</i>.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> Here’s
a neat piece of geographic trivia: Death Valley, the lowest place in North
America is located just 85 miles from Mount Whitney (summit elevation: 14,505
feet), the highest mountain in the contiguous United States.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> My
idea of Hell is closer to Dante’s, a dark frozen waste. So for me hell on earth
is to be found in coldest part of Antarctica, like for instance, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok,_Antarctica">Vostok Station</a>. But my ideas aside, summer in Death Valley is hellish.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a> I
can recommend Christopher McDougall’s book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Born
to Run</i> if you’re interested in learning more about what these races entail
and what type of personality they attract.<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">8.</span></b></a></a> The name of the place doesn't lie.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-60287107276139939622012-09-13T17:24:00.001-04:002012-11-12T11:53:55.036-05:00Happy Birthday, U.S. Constitutionby Conroy
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In just a few days, September 17 to be exact, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Constitution">U.S. Constitution</a> turns 225-years-old<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>. It was on that date in 1787 that the
Constitutional Convention adopted the document and passed it along to each of
the then thirteen states for ratification. Within a year the Constitution
became the law of the land. It was, at the time, a remarkable, original product,
and it remains, two-and-a-quarter centuries later, one of man’s great
documents.
<br />
<br />
Here’s the famous Preamble, whose language (misspellings and
all) embodies what I term the pragmatic idealism of early America:
<br />
<br />
“<a href="http://www.usconstitution.net/const.html">We the People</a> of the United States, in Order to form a more
perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the
common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of
Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish the
Constitution for the United States of America.” (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">sic</i>)
<br />
<br />
That’s it, a brief 52 words, just one sentence, that
announces the broad vision of American government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the time of its writing, these sentiments
were the hopes for a new nation. And in an 18<sup>th</sup> century world of
monarchies, rigid social hierarchies, and limited freedoms, it was
revolutionary. Looking back from the present it reads like a promise largely
fulfilled. And on this anniversary it’s worth thinking a little more about this
cornerstone of American government and society.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A Short History of
How the Constitution Came to Be</b>
<br />
The Constitution was a desperately needed solution to a growing
crisis. After the hard fight for independence was won, the United States was
not really a country. Rather, it was a loosely bound confederation of thirteen
separate states. The central government, as much as there was one, operated
under the weak <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation">Articles of Confederation</a>.
<br />
<br />
A quick refresher. The American colonies fought a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Revolutionary_War">long war of independence</a> from Britain starting in 1775. A year later, after the Continental
Congress formally declared American independence, the Revolution’s leaders
realized that in order to prosecute the war effectively a national government of
some sort was needed. The Articles of Confederation became the framework of
this government. This initial “constitution” was meant as a wartime measure to
bind the thirteen rebelling colonies together and create a government to act as
an agent for advocating the American cause and soliciting international
support. And considering that the U.S. won the war, and to a large extent that outcome
was a result of maintaining an army in the field and recruiting the French (and
Spanish) into the war on America’s side, the Articles worked. But it was ad
hoc, and once the United States became a nation, utterly inadequate.
<br />
<br />
The Articles created a Congress, but it had difficulty
raising money as it couldn’t tax and relied on financial contributions from
each state. It could print money, but that soon became worthless. America was
on the verge of defaulting on the huge debts incurred during the war. There was
no President or Executive Branch. The government couldn’t exercise a coherent
foreign policy, with each state pursuing its own goals vis-à-vis Great Britain and
other nations. The country had virtually no military and was unable to protect
itself against raiding pirates or even the British soldiers still occupying
frontier forts. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shay%27s_Rebellion">Shay’s Rebellion</a> in Massachusetts revealed the inherent
impotence of American government, national and state alike. Commercial rule and
legal rights were haphazard. Just a few years after becoming a nation, the
United States was headed toward dissolution.
<br />
<br />
The nation’s leaders, the famed <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founding_Fathers_of_the_United_States">Founding Fathers</a>, recognized
the growing crisis and convened the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Convention">Constitutional Convention</a> in Philadelphia
during the warm summer of 1787. The Convention, one of the most important
events in early American history, was led by George Washington<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>
and included such leading lights as Benjamin Franklin, Alexander Hamilton, and
James Madison. In total, 55 men from twelve states<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a> took the next four
months to outline the shape of a new national government.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Making a Constitution</b>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyACKLkdT4x0HHxDdkk0INgJMvXQbLKF01tvmvvRkaEky1_RXrKoOgF3gjqV1ylZcuyZ2lJ8svM2eQCt1YaiJ1IUiIICEK9IFuwHLK-LZV7xOMn6sZl0ZHr7Uca3SaA3J_GAJioa1MdhxN/s1600/constitutional+convention.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyACKLkdT4x0HHxDdkk0INgJMvXQbLKF01tvmvvRkaEky1_RXrKoOgF3gjqV1ylZcuyZ2lJ8svM2eQCt1YaiJ1IUiIICEK9IFuwHLK-LZV7xOMn6sZl0ZHr7Uca3SaA3J_GAJioa1MdhxN/s320/constitutional+convention.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A depiction of the Constitutional Convention</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
What the Convention ultimately approved is known to every
American schoolchild, an Executive Branch headed by a President with broad
powers, a bicameral legislature divided into a House of Representatives (seats
based on population) and Senate (two per state), and a separate judiciary and
Supreme Court. That’s the basic structure, but what I appreciate most about the
Constitution is how it’s written to “secure the Blessings of Liberty to
ourselves and our Posterity.”
<br />
<br />
The men who wrote the Constitution were products of the Age
of Reason, but they were also intelligent and savvy, and realistic about the
nature of man. They understood that governmental powers, if unchecked, accrete
and corrupt. The recent war had been fought against just that (as they believed<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>).
And so the Constitution is based on the ideas of the consent of the governed
(representative democracy), divided powers (separate Executive, Legislative,
and Judicial branches with checks and balances on the powers of each), and
civil liberties (most obviously embodied in the Bill of Rights).
<br />
<br />
And the Convention recognized the need for amendments, for
the Constitution to evolve as events warranted. One of the key agreements that
greatly aided ratification was that the ten amendments of the Bill of Rights
would be added to the Constitution almost immediately. The Constitution was
sent to the states for ratification, two-thirds needed to approve for it to
become law (meaning nine states needed to ratify it). Delaware<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>,
Pennsylvania, and New Jersey ratified it by the end of the year. Georgia,
Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, and South Carolina followed in the first
five months of 1788, and when New Hampshire approved in June the Constitution
became official. Virginia and New York approved that summer and stubborn
holdouts North Carolina and Rhode Island, recognizing the futility of continued
obstruction, followed in 1789 and 1790, respectively.
<br />
<br />
As defined in the Constitution, a President (Washington) was
elected<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a>,
an embryonic Executive Branch was formed, a formal Congress took office, and a
federal judiciary established. Government hasn’t grown into Hobbes’ <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_%28book%29">Leviathan</a>,
but it has flourished since the experimental beginnings (into a needed social
bulwark or bloated inefficiency, or something in between, depending on your own
particular political views).
<br />
<br />
The Constitution was amended with the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Bill_of_Rights">Bill of Rights</a> in
1789, which guaranteed the civil liberties that so many wanted clearly defined.
Since then 17 additional amendments (27 total) have been ratified, though the
twenty-first amendment repealed the eighteenth (Prohibition). There hasn’t been
a new amendment since 1992 (and that one about Congressional salaries seems
rather picayune when compared to the Bill of Rights or abolition of slavery).
Before that the last amendment was in 1971 (voting age of 18). The total number
of amendments isn’t likely to grow anytime soon, there aren’t any floating around
that appear to have the broad support needed for ratification.<a name="15"><a href="#16"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">8</span></sup></b></a></a><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;"> </span></sup></b>
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A Few Criticisms</b>
<br />
The Constitution is a manmade creation, and as such,
imperfect<a name="17"><a href="#18"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">9</span></sup></b></a></a>.
Criticisms of the Constitution are leveled at some of its concepts and in its
vagueness in dealing with how powers are distributed. The former includes the
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29">Electoral College</a> used to elect the President and the two-Senators-per-state
make-up of the Senate. In both cases, critics argue, the will of the majority
can be obstructed.<a name="19"><a href="#20"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">10</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
It’s also vague on the actual division between federal power
and state power. Ostensibly, all powers not explicitly granted to the federal
government in the Constitution fall to the states. But in practice, the power
of the federal government has grown over time and that of the states declined.
This is part of the intellectual backdrop that led to the Civil War and
continues in legal thinking (and political contention) over a strict reading of the Constitution
(judicial constructionism) and a broader interpretive reading (judicial
activism). This is a core aspect underpinning much of the modern political debate. Examples range from
fights over Supreme Court Justices to the constitutionality of major legislation (e.g., Obama Care).
<br />
<br />
And of course the Constitution originally allowed for
the continuance of slavery, which was one of those pragmatic <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">realpolitik</i>
compromises needed to get the document approved, but was undeniably wrong and
led ultimately to the greatest crisis in the nation’s history.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Some Thoughts on The
Constitution’s</b>
<br />
Adoption of the Constitution seemed to free up the United
States to become the well-functioning, prosperous nation the Founders
envisioned. By the early nineteenth century, America, on a per capita basis, was
likely the richest country in the world; the land that Alexis de Tocqueville
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_America">praised so lavishly</a>. And portions of the American system, a workable
federalism, republican democracy, bicameral legislature, powerful president, to
name a few, have been emulated the world over. The U.S. Constitution may not be
the exact model followed by many of the national constitutions drafted later,
but the American system has had a strong influence on the global proliferation
of democracy.
<br />
<br />
There’s a tendency in America to worship the Constitution
(and Declaration of Independence) as a form of almost civil religion. This is
true and reverence for the Constitution might get a little inflated at times
(witness this post), but no one would deny that America’s stable, peaceful
government, respect for the primacy of the law, and belief in justice have
their grounding in the Constitution, and that these attitudes have served the
nation very well indeed.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> September 17 is officially
observed as Constitution Day in the United States (though to my recollection I can’t remember anyone
ever noting this in my day-to-day life or, thinking further back, my teachers telling
us during Social Studies).
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> George Washington is rightly known as the
“father of his country,” just consider his career: Delegate to the First and
Second Continental Congresses, Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army, President
of the Constitutional Convention, and first President of the United States.
This might be the most impressive resume of any public figure in history, and
certainly of any American. And in each role he succeeded (to say the least). The precedents
established during his presidency had a profound influence on the subsequent
development of America. Just one example, back in the 18<sup>th</sup> century
republican democracy on the scale established in the U.S. was new and a slide
back toward monarchism was seen as a real possibility. With Washington this was
never a possibility. As President he acted entirely within the powers granted
by the Constitution (even if he interpreted the document more in the favor of
his office than some, like Thomas Jefferson, liked) and left office – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">gave up power</i> – freely (and happily) after
two terms.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> Rhode Island refused to send delegates or
participate in any way. Rhode Island also refused to ratify the Constitution
until 1790, the last of the original thirteen states to do so (see above).
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> Remarkably fast by modern standards. How long
would the process take today? Years probably, and the result would be a document
many many times longer than the relatively brief Constitution.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> In truth, the U.S. was fortunate to be the
product of Great Britain, where the ideas of democracy (though not
republicanism), the rule of law, and a relatively open and free society were
well established. This is one of the major reasons that the U.S. flourished
under its new government while Latin America, which successfully rebelled
against authoritarian and dogmatic Spain a generation later, stagnated under
corrupt governments for generations.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> “The First State.”
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a> Although back then it wasn’t by popular vote,
but by Electors from each state (a true Electoral College). This is how George
Washington was unanimously elected, twice. A feat, needless to say, that won’t
be repeated.
<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">8.</span></b></a></a> Like, say, a ban on burning the American flag
or the abandoned <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment">Equal Rights Amendment</a>.
<br />
<br />
<a name="18"><a href="#17"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">9.</span></b></a></a> This is admitted right in the Preamble, “to
form a more perfect Union…,” not a perfect union. The Founders knew what
everyone should take to heart, that the perfect is the enemy of the good.
<br />
<br />
<a name="20"><a href="#19"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">10.</span></b></a></a> And
indeed, there have been four occasions in U.S. Presidential elections where the
man receiving the most votes didn’t receive the most Electoral votes, most
recently in 2000 when George Bush defeated Al Gore. (The other four instances
date from the nineteenth century.) It also seems unfair that tiny state (by
population) like Wyoming or Vermont has the same representation – and therefore
the same power – in the Senate as huge states like California and Texas. (Though
I will admit a personal bias in favor of these arrangements because it ensures
that all states (and people) are considered in the national political discussion.
A government ruled by just the popular vote would swing political focus to the
largest population centers and biggest states, which, I think, on the whole would
be undesirable.)Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-75015845738145389852012-09-05T20:26:00.000-04:002012-09-05T20:26:09.538-04:00Farewell, Andy Roddickby Conroy
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1onsJlKtnQc2YzvwqPNMkb8bt1gY-hhgqMHUlX7NPagnIbSHSgya7w5AFbOJhZMhKg6DPN18M9UaIqOOn1I86lheXS_O33LG6MIgaUhjtK-WbkJF4ialLyPFsL5WHhpZoRyqMSzNfKQOS/s1600/andy-roddick-us-open-2012-sneaker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1onsJlKtnQc2YzvwqPNMkb8bt1gY-hhgqMHUlX7NPagnIbSHSgya7w5AFbOJhZMhKg6DPN18M9UaIqOOn1I86lheXS_O33LG6MIgaUhjtK-WbkJF4ialLyPFsL5WHhpZoRyqMSzNfKQOS/s320/andy-roddick-us-open-2012-sneaker.jpg" width="213" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Andy Roddick at the 2012 U.S. Open</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Andy
Roddick lost today – after a characteristically hard fight – in the fourth
round of the U.S. Open, beaten decisively by 2009 champion Juan Martin Del
Potro in the conclusion of their rain-interrupted match from last night. It is
the last match, the final loss, of his career. Roddick surprised the sports
world when he <a href="http://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2012-08-30/201208301346361858009.html?promo=home">announced his retirement</a> prior to his second round match. He
cited the increasing frequency of injuries and his flagging commitment as the
key factors driving his decision. Unlike other past champions<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>,
Roddick said he wouldn’t be satisfied to, in his words, merely “exist on tour.”
Roddick’s results have been slipping over the last year and a half and he’s
been sidelined, seemingly, by one injury after another. This has led to
whispers and speculation about how long Roddick would keep going, so it wasn’t
a huge shock when he announced his decision to call it a career, but the timing
– right in the middle of the biggest American tournament of the year – was
unexpected. It added a buzz to his final matches as the New York crowd had only
these last few opportunities to cheer him on. But it also provides an
opportunity to reflect on Roddick’s long, successful, and in many ways
frustrating career.
<br />
<br />
I’ve
<a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/search/label/tennis">written a lot about tennis</a> on this blog, but I’ve always focused on the play
and changing dynamics of the very top players, especially Roger Federer, Rafael
Nadal, and Novak Djokovic. My interest in the top of the game is natural; these
have been the men winning the big titles and etching their many impressive
accomplishments in the tennis history books. Over the last seven plus years
they’ve won just about every tournament of importance, leaving precious little
for the rest of the field. Andy Roddick has been one of those players left in
their wake. Compared to the best he has been, by any clear-eyed assessment, a
minor champion. But it didn’t look this way when Roddick broke onto the scene.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Andy and Roger</b>
<br />
It’s
impossible to consider Roddick’s career without comparison with his direct
contemporary, Roger Federer. Federer has of course dominated tennis for most of
the last decade, and his stature and accomplishments have overshadowed all others
(with the lone exception of Nadal). But no one’s career has suffered from
Federer’s dominance as much as Roddick’s.
<br />
<br />
Ten
years ago, 20-year-old Roddick shot into the top ten behind a monstrous serve
and forehand. Back then Roddick could hit his serve at over 150 mph<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>,
and his serve-forehand combination was hard to contend with. He looked to have
the game to be the next big thing, picking up the torch of American tennis from
the aging Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras. Of course there was another guy who
had settled into the top ten who was also being called the next big thing<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>.
And unfortunately for Roddick, this other guy had his number. Federer beat
Roddick the first four times they played, including in the semi-finals of the
2003 Wimbledon en route to his first grand slam. Still, the Roddick-Federer
matchup promised to be one of the great new rivalries in the sport.
<br />
<br />
Roddick
finally beat Federer in the run-up to the 2003 U.S. Open, and carried that
momentum<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>
to the championship, the first of what looked to be many grand slam titles.
Roddick’s victory in New York and his overall season lifted him to the top of
the rankings for the 2003 season, one spot ahead of Federer. At 21<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>
he was the best player in the world.
<br />
<br />
Federer
took the top ranking from Roddick in early 2004 after he won his second grand
slam at the Australian Open, but in midsummer at Wimbledon Roddick had a great
chance to get on top of their burgeoning rivalry. He faced Federer in the
Wimbledon final. A victory would avenge his semi-final loss from the year
before and give him two grand slams, equal to Federer, and the number 1
ranking. The match was played under sodden gray skies, but the gloomy weather
didn’t seem to faze Roddick. He came out playing brilliant tennis, serving
masterfully and striking rocket forehands on the way to taking the first set. He
had Federer back on his heels and was getting the better of many of the baseline
exchanges. Federer managed to squeeze out the second, but Roddick was leading
4-2 in the third when the skies, threatening rain all day, finally opened. Roddick
left the court with the initiative, and it’s worth pausing at this moment;
perhaps the high water mark of his career, beating Roger Federer at Wimbledon,
on the cusp of a career-defining victory. But it wasn’t to be. Federer used the
rain delay to his advantage, diagnosing Roddick’s game plan. When play resumed
he changed tactics by attacking the net and seized the momentum. He broke
Roddick immediately and took the third set in a one-sided tiebreaker. Federer’s
maintained his level and served out the match in four sets. Right up until this
Wimbledon final there was little to choose between the players, Roddick had
potent weapons and Federer had a formidably all-around game. But from this
match on their career trajectories bifurcated sharply; Roddick would never
again be in Federer’s league.
<br />
<br />
Federer
went on to dominate in a historic fashion, winning more grand slam titles and
holding the top ranking for longer than any other man. Roddick began a slow
fade. He ended 2004 ranked number 2, but was passed by Nadal in 2005, and then by
others in the ensuing years. He reached the 2005 Wimbledon and 2006 U.S. Open
finals<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>,
and was beaten by Federer in each. Roddick continued to win, but never seemed
to come through in the big matches. His (relatively) plodding movement and
underpowered backhand were weaknesses that more and more players learned to
exploit. Even his vaunted serve and forehand seemed to lose a little of their
sting as the years passed. His year-end ranking shows this steady (if relatively slow) decline:<br />
<ul>
<li>2003
– 1, </li>
<li>2004
– 2, </li>
<li>2005
– 3, </li>
<li>2006
– 6, </li>
<li>2007
– 6, </li>
<li>2008
– 8, </li>
<li>2009
– 7, </li>
<li>2010
– 8, </li>
<li>2011
– 14, </li>
<li>2012
(as of 9/4) – 22.
</li>
</ul>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
By
summer 2009 it was clear to everyone that Federer was among the greatest
players of all time, a true tennis icon whose accomplishments and athletic
talent transcended the sport. Roddick had merely been a very good, very consistent
top 10 player. When Roddick fought his way to the 2009 Wimbledon final, against
Federer of course, each man had a huge goal to play for. For Federer, a win
would give him 15 grand slam titles, passing the record he shared with Pete
Sampras. For Roddick, a win would give him an elusive second grand slam title,
banishing the label of a “one slam wonder”, a coveted Wimbledon championship,
and validate his long presence in the top 10. Pre-match pundits (including this
writer) tagged Federer as a big favorite. After all, Federer led their
head-to-head matchup 18-2, including all seven of their grand slam matches. But
Roddick was game and the match became epic.
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPmrAU4LbOx9-t41p03ANeBi6LR-7RtdLzg3SaSEl1ZLEV1Idqm-c6noFdtnb1dhJVd3m6gWaD8adZkUyP6mvk7VSyDySGwDqRQPeQzkRPTGeSIPKas1gwSUjdkaN_hcs5GQjl7LZ7ap3Q/s1600/roddick-federer_wimbledon+09.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPmrAU4LbOx9-t41p03ANeBi6LR-7RtdLzg3SaSEl1ZLEV1Idqm-c6noFdtnb1dhJVd3m6gWaD8adZkUyP6mvk7VSyDySGwDqRQPeQzkRPTGeSIPKas1gwSUjdkaN_hcs5GQjl7LZ7ap3Q/s320/roddick-federer_wimbledon+09.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Roddick and Federer in the 2009 Wimbledon final</td></tr>
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Playing
under bright sunshine, Roddick surprised Federer by playing clean, aggressive
tennis. As he said after the match, for perhaps the first time ever Federer
seemed unable to read his serve. And Roddick was able to hold his own in the
baseline rallies as well, preventing Federer from dragging him all over the
court, pushing Federer and never letting him find the easy flow he usually
established in their matches (watch highlights <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ivf3TOUY78">here</a>). Roddick broke Federer at the end of a tight first
set to take it 7-5. His high level continued in the second as he dominated on
his own serve. The set went to a tiebreaker where Roddick built a seemingly
insurmountable 6-2 lead – holding four set points. Just then it seemed that
their history intervened. Federer fought off all four set points, aided by a
Roddick volley error on what appeared to be an easy put away, and won the set. Instead
of Roddick holding a commanding two sets to none lead, the match was all square
and the momentum surely behind Federer. But Roddick’s level stayed high, even
as Federer won the third set in another (not as close) tiebreak. And unlike in
so many of their previous matches, Roddick didn’t wilt after falling behind. He
continued to hold serve – Federer hadn’t broken him once in the match – and scored
a break of Federer’s serve midway through the fourth set. Roddick served it out
and the match moved, unexpectedly, into a fifth set. The games mounted, each
man holding serve game after serve game. They reach 6 all, then 9 all, then 12
all. Roddick actually had a few chances to break Federer, but each time the
Swiss man fought them off. Finally, with Federer leading 15-14, Roddick’s serve
faltered. Federer broke him, after 37 consecutive holds, to take the win<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a>.
It might have been the best match of Roddick’s career, and he lost. The result was
in many ways a microcosm of his career (and Federer’s), coming so close to
greatness only to lose to someone better.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">An Excellent Career</b>
<br />
Because
Roddick lost so often to Federer and in so many big moments, there is a
tendency among some tennis fans to view his career as a bit disappointing. He
never won a second grand slam. After 2003 he never really had any moments of
glory. This perspective is a commentary on our winning-is-everything sports
culture. No matter what Roddick accomplished he never won the big match. But
while this is true, it shouldn’t obscure the many notable achievements in
Roddick’s career. He carried the flag as America’s best tennis player for a
decade. He was a stalwart in Davis Cup, often playing for the U.S. even if it
meant less rest and preparation for the remainder of his season. He led the
American team to the 2007 Davis Cup title, which surely ranks as one of the
finer moments of his career. Here are a few of his more noteworthy
accomplishments:<br />
<ul>
<li>Won
the 2003 U.S. Open, </li>
<li>Won
32 career titles (third among active players behind only Federer and Nadal), </li>
<li>Won
five ATP 1000 titles, </li>
<li>Finished
the year ranked in the Top 10 for nine consecutive years (2002-10), </li>
<li>Won
at least one tournament for 12 consecutive years (2001-12), </li>
<li>Won
more than $20 million in prize money.
</li>
</ul>
<br />
It’s
perverse to cast this type of success as a disappointment. By the standards of
most tennis players these achievements represent outstanding success that only
a handful of professionals will achieve. Tennis narratives, like most sports
narratives, are told from the top. We follow the exploits of the best players;
we focus on the biggest tournaments and watch the championship matches.
Roddick, unfortunately, didn’t shine in most of those moments, but he still has
to be considered one of the top half dozen players of the last decade. Maybe
the reality is that as spectators we see in Roddick much of what we see in
ourselves, which is not the best, more likely to lose than win<a name="15"><a href="#16"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">8</span></sup></b></a></a>,
to come up a little short in the biggest moments. We see in Federer what we
want to be, extreme competence and confidence, a man able to summon his best
when his best is needed most, a winner. And so we relegate Roddick to second-rate
status and venerate Federer. Roddick deserves a better fate than that.
<br />
<br />
Andy
was (is) also a natural character. His game matched his aggressive, strutting
on-court demeanor; a demeanor that many found very American, especially
compared to, say, the calm and precision of Swiss Federer and the bullish fight
of Spaniard Nadal. When you think of Roddick on court, it’s hard not to imagine
him toeing the service line, sweat pouring off the brim of his baseball cap, pulling
at the shoulders of his too-large shirt, flipping the ball out of his hand and
bouncing it quickly with his racket. His narrow stance and deep knee bend as he
uncoiled in a flash to unleash a thunderous serve. Or maybe we’ll remember his
fearless diving volleys at the net, a crowd-pleasing and no doubt painful move
that he surely performed more frequently than any other player. Or maybe the
way he seemed to alternately stomp and skip back to the baseline after points,
a characteristic roll in his shoulders, exhorting the ball boy for his towel with
an emphatic point. And when he got the towel his habit of wiping down his right
(racket) arm and hat in a vain attempt to staunch his perspiration. Or the
moments of anger and frustration when he berated the umpire for some perceived
slight or error. Andy had a style to him, it wasn’t elegant or subtle it was
brash and bold and often in the face of superior opponents, ineffectual, but it
was his own.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05yOthBE4WMiZZUM3drBERWpW-KK0CjQzaf6UL18i-s0GL8pbE4ZisOMZ99q_wcXCEt_ehEny6xTbiFapTE7ogQOWNBSAO7rpU_AZoex7LIfdnWM9BcO-dx3k4DXxX0-isPbewiqMBdML/s1600/andy-roddick-press.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05yOthBE4WMiZZUM3drBERWpW-KK0CjQzaf6UL18i-s0GL8pbE4ZisOMZ99q_wcXCEt_ehEny6xTbiFapTE7ogQOWNBSAO7rpU_AZoex7LIfdnWM9BcO-dx3k4DXxX0-isPbewiqMBdML/s320/andy-roddick-press.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Andy, often at his best with the press</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
His
press conferences were always fun as he actually engaged reporters, the setting
perfect for his quick wit. After the 2004 Wimbledon loss he quipped, “I threw
the kitchen sink at [Federer]. But he went to the bathroom and got a tub.” Even
after a deflating loss he could be ingratiating and funny. That attitude and
sense of humor was one of his most admirable qualities. His long career near
the top and natural rapport with the media made him one of the most
recognizable faces in the sport, and I think he did more to lift tennis in the
broad cultural consciousness<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7912353683441062193" name="_GoBack"></a> then many other players with
similar levels of success. He was a tireless worker and never stopped looking
for answers to the puzzle of Federer and other top players, bringing on new
coaches, focusing on correcting flaws in his game. It’s not obvious that all of
this effort led to greater success, but at the end of the day (or at the end of
the career), Roddick can hold his head high knowing that he likely got the most
out of his talent and game. The tennis tour will be worse off for Roddick’s
absence, and American tennis will miss his leadership. But the tour will move
on, hopefully we’ll see Roddick stay in touch with the game in some capacity.
Until then, farewell, Andy Roddick, you will be missed.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> Like Lleyton Hewitt or Juan Carlos Ferrero, who
both, like Roddick, are grand slam champions and former number 1 ranked
players, and who experienced their best seasons a decade or more ago and yet continue
to toil on despite frequent losses and with little hope of winning tournaments.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> He
still holds the record for fastest serve at a grand slam – 152 mph at the 2004
U.S. Open, and the second fastest serve ever at 155 mph.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a>
Federer if that’s not obvious.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a>
Including saving a match point against David Nalbandian in the semi-finals.
Roddick manhandled Juan Carlos Ferrero in the final.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a>
Roddick (DOB. 8/30/82) is just over a year younger than Federer (DOB. 8/8/81).
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a> The
2005 Wimbledon final, which wasn’t close with Federer winning in a straight-set
blowout. The 2006 U.S. Open final which saw two close sets sandwiched between
two dominant sets from Federer, who won in four sets. And the 2009 Wimbledon
final, described in detail above.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a> The
final score line was 5-7, 7-6(6), 7-6(4), 3-6, 16-14. The final was the longest
in grand slam history in terms of games played and the fifth set lasted more
than an hour and a half. (A personal aside: I was on vacation in Ireland when
this match was played and made my friend sit and watch the entire
four-and-a-half hour marathon from a pub in Dublin. Surely this was not his
idea of how to spend a weekend afternoon in a foreign city, but to his eternal
credit, he was a good sport and toughed out the whole thing with nary and
complaint. Later, I got into a conversation with an Irish woman who was
saddened by Roddick’s loss. She felt that he had deserved to win, especially
since Federer had won so much and one extra championship couldn’t have meant as
much to him as a Wimbledon title would have meant to Roddick. She was surprised
to know that I, and American, was cheering for Federer instead of my
countryman. But as I explained, I don’t consider tennis a nationalistic sport
(like, say, the Olympics) and where an individual player hails from is less
important than how they play, and behave, and for lack of a better description,
how likeable and enjoyable they are to watch. I think many or even most tennis
fans feel the same way.)
<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">8.</span></b></a></a>
This assumes of course that we can consider a man who is famous, wealthy, and
more successful than 99.9% of the people in his profession as something less
than a winner. And let’s not forget that his <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooklyn_Decker">wife is a supermodel</a>.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-65785305820216087852012-08-28T23:08:00.001-04:002012-11-04T09:21:43.350-05:00Visiting Key Westby Conroy
<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYdo8oxe6OEzednqUu_iFTvA1wwkkU8iJ1_GLSCYg0Tp5icSRQ-xRYc7mWca0zc6Z43kxIQhaikfixjxqDrbga3_JT7b_8UcNNzd94DyJ4ifgwGEVbVgz-7zDYL817JrCCzKW92uEHrYKG/s1600/duval+street.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYdo8oxe6OEzednqUu_iFTvA1wwkkU8iJ1_GLSCYg0Tp5icSRQ-xRYc7mWca0zc6Z43kxIQhaikfixjxqDrbga3_JT7b_8UcNNzd94DyJ4ifgwGEVbVgz-7zDYL817JrCCzKW92uEHrYKG/s320/duval+street.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A view along Duval Street</td></tr>
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Key West. What comes into your mind when you read those
words?
<br />
<br />
How about a sunny tropical island? <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_West,_Florida">Key West</a> is the only
American city never to record a frost. Its warm climate, flat geography, and
native flora are closer to that of the Bahamian cays than to the rest of
Florida (let alone the rest of the continental U.S.). Walking slowly down busy
Duval Street under the fierce July afternoon sun and through the still humid air,
sweat seeping from your face and torso, you realize that Key West, unlike any
other place in the U.S. is truly tropical.
<br />
<br />
What about a quirky laidback end-of-the-line town? Some of
the locals call it Key Weird and the city has a long reputation for openness;
Cuban immigrants, homosexuals, those just looking for a place to forget the
past to start over, not to mention the hordes of pleasure seeking tourists (to
name but a few groups) have given the island its own distinctive come-as-you-are
and do-as-you-please culture.
<br />
<br />
Or maybe, if you’re geographically inclined like me, you
think of the southernmost city in the continental United States? Let’s start
with that. For those who haven’t been, Key West is the last island in the long
chain of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_keys">Florida Keys</a>, the archipelago that stretches in a hundred mile arc
west-southwest from the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. The Keys rise
from the shallow turquoise waters of the Straits of Florida and range in size from
small, flat, forested islands to tiny coral specs. Key West city occupies the small
Key West Island, which is just five square miles, as well as a few neighboring islands
to the immediate east and north.
<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGxj0J5ZLV5Tgs3f6BlzMYR5V0e8SvweRTYjh0eAgRb_DUU6SPDEoFG2XLbHMVFRd1RnH1DcL3AvAx7uCPp-pFSguoVRGRgg4y9FRa_oiyuS8oFLb1cmwBJGXMKalBNzt4QJyQ2OYKfy8B/s1600/southernmost+point.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGxj0J5ZLV5Tgs3f6BlzMYR5V0e8SvweRTYjh0eAgRb_DUU6SPDEoFG2XLbHMVFRd1RnH1DcL3AvAx7uCPp-pFSguoVRGRgg4y9FRa_oiyuS8oFLb1cmwBJGXMKalBNzt4QJyQ2OYKfy8B/s1600/southernmost+point.jpg" /></a>It’s hard to fairly distill a place in a brief description,
but perhaps one famous landmark will help. Take a look at the photo on the
right. This is the famous concrete bell at the intersection of South and
Whitehead Street that marks the southernmost point of the continental United
States. This bell makes for a great photo op and what you can’t see is the
lengthy queue of people that are usually lined up during the day to get their
pictures. Let’s linger on this monument for moment, and consider the four
separate messages contained in its 18 words. They tell us a whole lot about Key
West, or about how Key West wants to viewed by the outside world.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">SOUTHERNMOST POINT
CONTINENTAL U.S.A. </b>
<br />
<br />
This is by far and away the Key West’s most celebrated claim
to fame. It is the southernmost city in the contiguous U.S. Quick quiz: can you
name the eastern-, western-, or northernmost cities in the continental U.S.?<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1 </span></sup></b></a></a>Probably
not, but you may know about Key West because residents have made the most of
their geographic extreme, it’s part of Key West’s allure as an end point, the
end of the road, mile zero, the furthest you can go. The thing is anybody who stands by
this monument can see that it’s not actually located at the southernmost point on
the island. The real southernmost point is just to the west on the U.S. Navy’s
Truman Annex property where the general public can’t go. And this is a nice microcosm
of Key West itself: almost the southernmost place. Key West is an island far
from Florida’s mainland, so it really isn’t a part of the “continental” U.S. at
all. I would suggest it’s more accurate to say that Key West is the
southernmost point in “lower 48” states or even the contiguous U.S. Terminology
aside, all of the uninhabited <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_Tortugas">Dry Tortugas</a> (islands that are also part of
Florida) lie to the west and several to the south of Key West<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>.
So technically, Key West isn’t the southernmost point in the “lower 48”. It’s
just the southernmost point that’s easy to get to.
<br />
<br />
And of course, it’s worth noting that all (or just about
all) of Hawaii is farther south than Key West, and for that matter so is Puerto
Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and almost all of America’s Pacific territories.
Why am I harping on these technicalities? I mean who cares really?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s just this: the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">idea</i> of Key West as the southernmost point in the U.S. – as a geographic extreme
– is critical to the culture and atmosphere (and even the
psychology) of the place. It doesn’t have to actually be the southernmost
point, it just has to seem that way. Which leads to the next phrase.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">90 MILES TO CUBA</b>
<br />
<br />
Like the southernmost point, “90 miles to Cuba” is a
well-worn phrase, and it’s more or less true (though in fact at the closest
point Cuba is a little more than 90 miles to the south). Key West is
significantly closer to Havana than to Miami<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>. And this phrase became
commonplace during the Cold War and especially the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_missile_crisis">Cuban Missile Crisis</a> when
Soviet nuclear weapons were being installed “90 miles” from the U.S. But what’s
the big deal about this fact? I mean Bimini in the Bahamas is only 50 miles
east of Miami. Monterrey, Mexico, and Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, Canada
are all closer to the U.S. border. I think again, like the southernmost point,
the idea that exotic Cuba is seemingly so close, just over the southern
horizon, is important to the atmosphere of Key West: a place so distant and
distinct from the rest of America that it’s like a foreign country.
<br />
<br />
And this may be hard to believe, but a few times as my
girlfriend and I walked in the evening twilight, in and out of colorful shops,
past raucous bars open to the street, under the darkening silhouettes of cruise
ships that towered over dockside buildings, hearing many non-English voices, with
the clinging, unrelenting heat, and wild palms trees and tropical vegetation
overhanging the sidewalks, I did indeed feel, if only for a moment, that I was
in some other country. A semi-America; not quite foreign, but disorienting and unfamiliar.
Then something very American, like a loud pickup truck or the bright lights of
a convenience store, would jolt me back. I was in America, Key West America,
but America.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">THE CONCH REPUBLIC</b>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-YbOjAF9mEn86Xsa-2z3Ny7P1-7bwLRtGxq7keCJyVoepTODtUxkrFFaa_zQM3i_fstTIGFNclTB1Iry9ShIfMa-wyplxG_b1qiChXCfVMXDDM9wCE2y2bBYNsy6ALY7wTkokNnw5QO71/s1600/conch+republic.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-YbOjAF9mEn86Xsa-2z3Ny7P1-7bwLRtGxq7keCJyVoepTODtUxkrFFaa_zQM3i_fstTIGFNclTB1Iry9ShIfMa-wyplxG_b1qiChXCfVMXDDM9wCE2y2bBYNsy6ALY7wTkokNnw5QO71/s1600/conch+republic.gif" /></a></div>
As you stroll around town, along busy Duval Street or
through the quieter neighborhoods, you see a strange looking flag hanging from awnings,
draped over balconies, and occasionally up flagpoles. A dark blue background,
with a stylized sun at the center overlain with a conch shell, the word words
Conch Republic wrapping around the top of the sun with the date of 1828 or 1982
in upper right (depending on the flag) and the two constellations on either
side of the sun. Underneath the sun on some of the flags is the sly motto “we
seceded where others failed.”<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a> This is the flag of the imaginary Conch
Republic, which for citizens (known as Conchs) comprises all of the Keys and
has its spiritual capital in Key West.
<br />
<br />
It’s all very tongue-and-cheek, but it had its origin in
genuine frustration. In the aftermath of the 1980 <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariel_boatlift">Mariel boatlift</a>, where Fidel
Castro expelled 125,000 Cubans, and increased drug trafficking through the
Keys, the U.S. Border Patrol setup a roadblock on the Florida mainland that
stopped all vehicles from the Keys. This caused persistent major delays and was
perceived by residents as imposing a hardship, or at least a major inconvenience,
on travel and the Key’s tourist-fed economy. So in April 1982, fed up with the
ongoing “blockade”, Conchs declared their independence and the establishment of
a new nation. The ensuing publicity was enough to eventually have the Border
Patrol roadblock removed, but the Conch Republic has lived on. It may exist now
mostly as a gimmick, but it’s another manifestation of the separateness that
Conchs feel. Every April Key West celebrates its “independence” with a week-long
festival. Perhaps it’s just another excuse to party, but it’s something that
belongs only to Key West.
<br />
<br />
And what does it mean to belong to Key West? I asked this
question of Zach a young bartender as I sipped a mojito during a quiet
afternoon. He came to Key West a few years earlier after college (it was
unclear if he had actually graduated) and referred to himself as a local. To my
understanding there are long-term locals who are labeled “saltwater Conchs” and
newer locals who are labeled “freshwater Conchs”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I wasn’t sure if Zach’s residency was long
enough to qualify him as freshwater or saltwater. But in any case, his reason
for coming was twofold, the weather which was far more attractive than his
native Ohio, and the laidback pace of life. These are two of the four reasons I
can see for locating in Key West, in no particular order: weather, a slower
pace to life, a freedom to live as you please, and an escape from whatever your
life was before. In other words, it takes a certain personality to live in Key
West. Fewer than 25,000 people call the city home, but those 25,000 live tightly
together, sharing the same reasons for being there. Over the last several
decades the number of families living in Key West has dwindled from more than
40% of the population to less than 20%. The average age has risen to 39, much older
than the national average. Is it too dramatic to write that Key West is
becoming an older, lonelier place?
<br />
<br />
If that’s true, then it’s also true that Key West is
undeniably vibrant, just take a walk down Duval Street after dark or along
Mallory Square in the hours leading up to sunset, but it’s an easy vibrancy.
That’s not to say locals don’t work hard or that life lacks the expected edges.
It’s just that in Key West, under the bright, flattening sun and ensconced in
the perpetually warm air, far from the rest of the country, farther it seems
than the slow four hour drive to Miami, life must be just a bit different. A
different pace, a different perspective, and maybe different expectations. Life
in the Conch Republic, different just like the locals want it.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">KEY WEST, FL HOME OF
THE SUNSET</b>
<br />
<br />
The final phrase on the monument
claims the sunset as Key West’s special attraction. Certainly the name Key West
evokes the sunset; the west and sunset go together like island and sea. But
this claim is yet another catchphrase to cast Key West as blessed by nature and
the place to be to witness one of nature’s undeniable (if routine) magic acts. Come
to Key West for the sun and watch it sink behind the western horizon.<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3ioYAFTfk59jOgSQh8TMHwWVEMfwkK5kBmIkM-bJ-GAeLfb7PVheFFozltA61A0aCXcOacSeN7cVFL-bmJKyNozdamdc9xATWGOHWMNfi9QuFm6mLBwN8uPxsWY8fqeMKG8X7mWsTVP_d/s1600/mallory-square.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3ioYAFTfk59jOgSQh8TMHwWVEMfwkK5kBmIkM-bJ-GAeLfb7PVheFFozltA61A0aCXcOacSeN7cVFL-bmJKyNozdamdc9xATWGOHWMNfi9QuFm6mLBwN8uPxsWY8fqeMKG8X7mWsTVP_d/s320/mallory-square.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mallory Square at sunset</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
If Key West has a center, or at least a focus of daily
activity, it is Mallory Square, the brick and concrete paved plaza a little
larger than a football field that fronts the Gulf of Mexico on the northwest
corner of the island. It’s here that crowds gather each evening to watch the
sunset and are entertained by street performers of varying interest and talent<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>,
and local vendors/artists selling photographs, paintings, jewelry, trinkets,
etc. Mallory Square is also at the center of the island’s port, situated
between the cruise ship docks to the immediate south and the main marina to the
immediate east. Along with the “southernmost point” it’s the most visited
location on the island. The action at Mallory Square is concentrated in the
hour or two before sunset and then mostly along the waterfront promenade. Watching
the sunset is more than just a tourist activity, it’s part of the larger island
culture. Locals gather atop the Concha Hotel, the island’s tallest building
which affords a view overtop of Mallory Square and removed from the crowds.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Real Key West</b>
<br />
There’s certainly more to Key West than can be captured by
18 words on a colorful monument. I may have never eaten better than the meals I
had there. I think it’s accurate to say that I had more Key Lime pie in four
days than I had eaten in my entire life until then. Key West is also a
surprisingly historic place. Since its founding shortly after Florida became
part of the United States in the early nineteenth century the island has been a
busy port at a strategic location. As late as the turn of the twentieth century
Key West was the largest and most prosperous city in Florida, dwarfing nearby
Miami; a fact that seems unbelievable now. But that was the overwhelming reason
why huge sums were spent building a railroad and later a highway to connect the
island with the mainland.
<br />
<br />
Its history is rich from the Seminole wars, anti-piracy
campaigns, the Civil War, Spanish-American War, World War I and II, Cuban
Missile Crisis, to the aforementioned Mariel boat lift. Then there are the
interesting literary connections with extended residency of Ernest Hemingway
and Tennessee Williams (to name but two). And President Truman treated Key West
like a second home (indeed he lived in the Little White House) during his
presidency. I doubt many people come to Key West for the history, but it’s fascinating
and there to be enjoyed.
<br />
<br />
But these facets of Key West (except for the food maybe) are
for visitors to enjoy, and there seems to be an irony to the many flavors that
make Key West so attractive to tourists. The history, the setting, the people
and atmosphere are the things that keep tourists coming and bring much of the
money that keeps the local economy humming.
<br />
<br />
That’s really the combined message of the 18 words on the southernmost
monument. Key West as a unique one-of-a-kind place to visit, from its
geography, to its setting, to its character and people. Key West is populated
by thousands of people who choose to live far from the rest of the country but that
doesn’t stop them from inviting everyone else in.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> The answers are: northernmost: Sumas,
Washington; easternmost: Lubec, Maine (although Eastport, Maine is the
easternmost community of any size); westernmost: Ozette, Washington (though
Port Orford, Oregon claims to be the westernmost city on the U.S. mainland.
Both of these places ignore Alaska, which of course is part of the North
American continent).
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> Ballast Key is the southernmost island in
Florida and the lower 48 states.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> As the crow flies: 106 miles to Havana; 129
miles to Miami.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> The others here can only refer to the southern
states of the Confederacy who failed in their rebellion against the North.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> But it turns out that watching a true sunset at
Key West is harder than advertised. On our first night we watched the sunset
from Mallory Square, but instead of seeing the orange disk sink into the sea,
we watched it fade behind Sunset Key, a tiny island a few hundred yards
offshore and northwest of Mallory Square. An unobstructed sunset can only be
seen during the non-Summer months. The next night we were actually on Sunset
Key for dinner but the tick clouds near the western horizon blocked the sun for
the half hour before it set. Finally, we watched from the Concha Hotel, and
again the sunset occurred behind the distant clouds. I wanted to see a mythical
green flash sunset, instead in the “home of the sunset” I got obscurity.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a>For instance, watching a man juggle daggers with
intimidatingly large and sharp blades while balancing atop an elongated
unicycle tends to grab your attention, at least for a couple of minutes. While
listening to an off-key rendition of “Knocking on Heaven’s Door” backed by what
looks and sounds like a homemade ukulele is more likely to cause a quickening
of the step to get the “performance” if not out of hearing range, at least well
into the background noise.
<div style='text-align:center;font-size:11px;font-family:arial;font-weight:normal;margin:10px;padding:0;line-height:normal'><a href='http://www.dwellable.com/a/1532/Florida/Florida-Keys/Lower-Keys/Key-West/Truman-Annex/Vacation-Rentals' style='border:none'><img src='http://www.dwellable.com/dwellback/1532.jpg' style='width:102px;height:20px;border:none;margin:0;padding:0'><br>Truman Annex on Dwellable</a></div>Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-91307594547949606732012-08-14T21:13:00.000-04:002012-08-14T21:16:36.840-04:00Are Americans Really Heading Back to the City?by Conroy
<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyTbx6OfX0oYnwuJngknZMjQ7vR6WIaHAvOoiYoYnvXVtzwh4RCY-qUp20g375jwO3oVLFZCGsZiDB9DMCW81nnmqrcc4PDTcgU_aWvh6CS375i21t41aUK0UD6SXqfvbXKkYEAKvimJL3/s1600/washington+skyline.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyTbx6OfX0oYnwuJngknZMjQ7vR6WIaHAvOoiYoYnvXVtzwh4RCY-qUp20g375jwO3oVLFZCGsZiDB9DMCW81nnmqrcc4PDTcgU_aWvh6CS375i21t41aUK0UD6SXqfvbXKkYEAKvimJL3/s320/washington+skyline.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Washington, one of America's fastest growing cities in recent years</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The U.S. Census Bureau recently released <a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/data/cities/totals/2011/index.html">data on population growth in American cities</a> between the last official census in 2010 and estimates from
mid-2011. The data showed that most of the central cities in America’s largest
urban areas had gained population over the year, and that in many places the
central cities actually grew faster than their suburbs. For instance,
Washington, Atlanta, and Miami all grew by more than two percent, well ahead of
the growth of their metro areas. In aggregate, the core cities of the nation’s
51 largest metropolitan areas grew faster (slightly faster) than their suburbs<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>.
<br />
<br />
This data led to a slew of stories in the media reporting on this
apparent demographic shift as evidence of a notion that has been bandied about
for the last decade or so: Americans are beginning to eschew the spread out
suburbs in favor of the dense historic urban center. That Americans are heading
back to the city. Here are a couple of articles along those lines from the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830704577493032619987956.html?mod=djemITP_h#articleTabs%3Darticle">Wall Street Journal</a> and the<a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/06/29-cities-suburbs-frey"> Brookings Institute</a>. Many urban planners would argue
that such a trend is an indication of shifting values with Americans putting
less of a premium on the car-centered suburbs with their larger houses and yards
for a more compact eco-friendly life closer to work, services, and other
entertainments.<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a> So the argument goes, but is it true?
<br />
<br />
Let’s look at the census data for population
growth (2010-11) of the central cities in the 20 largest metropolitan areas in
the country (rounded to the nearest 1,000).<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Central City</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2011 Pop.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2010 Pop.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Difference</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">%</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
1. New York</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8,245,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8,186,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
59,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.72%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
2. Los Angeles</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,820,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,796,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
24,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.63%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
3. Chicago</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,707,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,698,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.33%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
4. Dallas</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,223,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,202,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
21,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.75%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
5. Houston</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,145,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,108,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
37,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.76%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
6. Philadelphia</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,536,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,528,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.52%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
7. Washington</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
618,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
605,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
13,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2.15%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
8. Miami</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
409,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
401,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2.00%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
9. Atlanta</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
432,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
422,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
10,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2.37%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
10. Boston</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
625,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
618,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
7,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.13%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
11. San Francisco</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
813,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
805,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.99%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
12. Riverside</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
311,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
306,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.63%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
13. Detroit</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
707,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
714,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-7,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-1.00%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
14. Phoenix</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,469,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,449,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
20,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.38%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
15. Seattle</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
621,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
610,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
11,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.80%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
16. Minneapolis</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
388,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
383,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.31%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 17;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
17. San Diego</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,326,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,312,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
14,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.07%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 18;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
18. Tampa</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
346,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
337,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2.67%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 19;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
19. St. Louis</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
318,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
319,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-1,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-0.31%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 20;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
20. Baltimore</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
619,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
621,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-2,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-0.32%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 21; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Total</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">28,678,000</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">28,420,000</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">258,000</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">0.90%</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
America’s largest urban areas did see population growth in the
central cities, with only three of the 20 cities showing (relatively modest)
population declines. Overall these 20 cities grew by a total of 258,000 people,
a little less than one percent and nearly twice the national rate of population
growth. New York City gained the most new residents, but because of its size
the actual rate of growth was lower than the average for this 20-city group. That’s
a crucial fact (size compared to rate) to keep in mind when considering population growth of cities and
regions, and it leads directly to the overall growth of American suburbs.
<br />
<br />
Compare the
central city growth from the table above to the non-central city (suburban) growth
of the 20 largest metropolitan areas (rounded to the nearest 1,000).
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" width="121">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Metro (w/o Central City)</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2011 Pop.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2010 Pop.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Difference</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">%</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
1. New York</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
10,771,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
10,734,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
37,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.34%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
2. Los Angeles</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9,125,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9,048,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
77,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.85%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
3. Chicago</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
6,798,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
6,775,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
23,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.34%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
4. Dallas</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,304,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,199,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
105,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2.02%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
5. Houston</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,942,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,868,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
74,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.91%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
6. Philadelphia</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4,456,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4,444,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
12,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.27%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
7. Washington</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,086,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,004,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
82,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.64%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
8. Miami</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,261,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5,177,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
84,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.62%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
9. Atlanta</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4,927,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4,864,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
63,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.30%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
10. Boston</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,966,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,941,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
25,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.63%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
11. San Francisco</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,578,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,538,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
40,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.13%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
12. Riverside</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,994,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,939,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
55,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.40%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
13. Detroit</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,579,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,579,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.00%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
14. Phoenix</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,794,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,760,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
34,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.23%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
15. Seattle</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,879,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,838,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
41,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.44%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
16. Minneapolis</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,930,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,903,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
27,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.93%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 17;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
17. San Diego</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,814,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,793,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
21,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.17%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 18;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
18. Tampa</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,479,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,451,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
28,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.14%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 19;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
19. St. Louis</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,499,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,496,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.12%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 20;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
20. Baltimore</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,110,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,094,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
16,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.76%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 21; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 90.9pt;" valign="top" width="121">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Total</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">88,292,000</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">87,445,000</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">847,000</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">0.97%</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Here’s where the reality of America’s population growth slams head-on
with the narrative of people heading back to the cities. The suburbs of the 20
largest cities grew at a similar – but slightly <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">higher</i> – rate than the central cities, about one percent. But the
real difference is in number of people. Between 2010 and 2011 the suburbs of
the largest cities added almost 850,000 people, or over three times as many
people as the central cities. Comparing the two lists you can see that only New
York City added more people that its suburbs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Washington, Atlanta, and Miami may have grown at a faster rate than
their suburbs, but the three cities added a total of 31,000 people while their
suburbs added 229,000 – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">seven times more</i>.
Unfortunately, media reports have focused on the percent of growth instead of
real population changes, an innumeracy that misses what’s actually happening.
<br />
<br />
The story of people flocking back to the central cities fits well with
the narrative of the rebirth of America’s older urban centers, but clearly the
data indicate that the population growth of America’s cities is still heavily
focused on the suburbs, as it’s been for more than half a century.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Some of America’s Historic Cities
Are Finally Growing Again</b>
<br />
It’s worth dwelling on the population changes of America’s older big
cities. One of the most obvious demographic shifts in the latter half of the 20<sup>th</sup>
century was the large and sustained population declines in America’s older
population centers. The reasons for this were many and
complex, including economic and racial factors, but also involving the common perception
and hard reality of civic mismanagement. New roads opened access to new cities and wider metro areas, and seeing the opportunity for better living, people voted with their feet and left the older cities. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight">“White flight”</a> became
a widespread fact across urban America. My hometown of Baltimore was one of
these cities. In my parent’s youth the city was the sixth largest in the nation
and boasted nearly one million residents. But they witnessed the population
decline by hundreds of thousands – one third of the 1950 population – by the
end of the century. And I witnessed it too, but from the outside. By the time
of my birth they had abandoned the city.
<br />
<br />
Here’s a table of just the
large American cities<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a> that saw population declines of at least
10% in the latter half of the 20<sup>th</sup> century (listed in order of their
peak population).
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" width="103">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">City</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Peak Population (Year)</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Low Population (Year)</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Difference</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">%</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
New York</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
7,895,000 (1970)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
7,072,000 (1980)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-823,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-10.4%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Chicago</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,621,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,696,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-925,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-25.5%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Philadelphia</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,072,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,518,000 (2000)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-554,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-26.7%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Detroit</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,850,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
714,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-1,136,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-61.4%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Baltimore</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
950,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
621,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-329,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-34.6%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Cleveland</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
915,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
397,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-518,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-56.6%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
St. Louis</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
857,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
319,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-538,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-62.8%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Washington</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
802,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
572,000 (2000)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-230,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-28.7%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Boston</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
801,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
563,000 (1980)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-238,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-33.1%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
San Francisco</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
775,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
679,000 (1980)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-96,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-12.4%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Milwaukee</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
741,000 (1960)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
595,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-146,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-19.7%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Pittsburgh</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
677,000 (1970)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
306,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-371,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-54.8%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Buffalo</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
580,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
261,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-319,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-55.0%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Kansas City</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
507,000 (1970)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
435,000 (1990)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-72,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-14.2%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Cincinnati</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
504,000 (1950)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
297,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-207,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-41.1%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Atlanta</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
497,000 (1970)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
394,000 (1990)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-103,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-20.7%</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyp18y911nb7vdFMtXmdxDwfziJfcE408ATS_WBDR70adnK-dW6Nz4xx0nmUpNpaFA6pgrBJqpWBGQzcYRq-gaEy3mZyk1CAwblpBlg2xobaMyOOyhI9H8DYiZ2h728OfgoU-UCQIxsz-I/s1600/detroit+decay.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyp18y911nb7vdFMtXmdxDwfziJfcE408ATS_WBDR70adnK-dW6Nz4xx0nmUpNpaFA6pgrBJqpWBGQzcYRq-gaEy3mZyk1CAwblpBlg2xobaMyOOyhI9H8DYiZ2h728OfgoU-UCQIxsz-I/s320/detroit+decay.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Increasingly empty and decaying Detroit</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In general, America’s first big cities hit their peak population just
after World War II before many decades of decline. New York suffered through
high crime and near bankruptcy in the 1970s, which saw over 800,000 people flee
the Big Apple.<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a> But the city proved far too dynamic and
has grown ever since. However, many of America’s once booming cities have not
proved so resilient. Chicago, Philadelphia, and Washington have lost more than
25% of their populations; Baltimore and Boston lost a third of their 1950
population; and Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Detroit have
lost well more than half of their peak population. Detroit is the poster child
for American urban disaster. Once America’s fifth largest city and home to the
nation’s iconic auto industry, Detroit has withered to a decaying shell of its
former glory. How did these cities fare between 2010 and 2011 as Americans were
moving back to the city?
<br />
<br />
(The cities listed in green reached their all-time population peak in 2011.)
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" width="103">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">City</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Low Population (Year)</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">2011 Pop.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">Difference</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;">%</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: #00b050;">New York</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
7,072,000 (1980)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8,245,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,173,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
16.6%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Chicago</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,696,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2,707,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
11,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.4%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Philadelphia</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,518,000 (2000)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,536,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
18,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1.2%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Detroit</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
714,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
707,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-7,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-1.0%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Baltimore</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
621,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
619,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-2,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-0.3%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Cleveland</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
397,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
394,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-3,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-0.8%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
St. Louis</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
319,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
318,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-1,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-0.3%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Washington</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
572,000 (2000)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
618,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
46,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8.0%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Boston</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
563,000 (1980)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
625,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
62,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
11.0%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: #00b050;">San Francisco</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
679,000 (1980)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
813,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
134,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
19.7%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Milwaukee<span style="color: #00b050;"></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
595,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
598,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.5%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Pittsburgh</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
306,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
307,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.3%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Buffalo</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
261,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
261,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.0%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Kansas City</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
435,000 (1990)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
463,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
28,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
6.4%</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Cincinnati</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
297,000 (2010)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
296,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-1,000</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red;">-0.3%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 77.4pt;" valign="top" width="103">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Atlanta</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.25in;" valign="top" width="120">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
394,000 (1990)</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
432,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
38,000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 49.5pt;" valign="top" width="66">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9.6%</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
This is clearly a mixed bag. New York and San Francisco reached their
all-time peak populations in 2011. Boston, Atlanta, Washington, and Kansas City
also boasted strong growth, continuing an on-going population rebound (though
all remain well below their 20<sup>th</sup> century peaks). The rest of the
cities either saw marginal gains or modest losses, with the notable exception
of Detroit which continues to hemorrhage people. All together, it’s hard to
argue that all major American cities are experiencing a renaissance. For every
Washington there is a Cleveland.
<br />
<br />
Yet the same isn’t true of metropolitan areas. Of the 51 metropolitan
areas of at least one million people, only Detroit, Cleveland, Providence, and
Buffalo lost people between 2010 and 2011. Americans may see cities as more
attractive places than they did a decade or two ago, but the suburbs clearly
remain the location of choice for most people.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a>
I’m using the term “central city” to refer to the entire municipality that
makes up the core city of a metropolitan area and “suburb” to refer to all
parts of the metropolitan area that fall outside of the core city. For
instance, New York City’s population growth would consist of the five boroughs
and New York’s suburban growth would consist of the portions of New Jersey,
Long Island, mainland New York State, etc., that fall outside of the city
limits.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a>
This is embodied in the idea of “smart growth” and increased “livability.”
These concepts push for higher densities in urban cores, more transit use, and
an emphasis on bicycle and pedestrian facilities, among other ideas. Many of
these concepts have been formally adopted by metropolitan planning
organizations and transportation agencies. And many of them are at odds with
the actual pattern of American demographic shifts since the middle of the 20<sup>th</sup>
century. Consider that one of the most perennially successful and growing
cities is Houston, which doesn’t even have formal zoning and is lambasted by many
urban planners as an example of unregulated urban sprawl.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a>
Cities that reached a peak population of 500,000 (or in the case of Atlanta,
nearly 500,000).
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> In
Woody Allen’s classic film <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Annie Hall</i>
(1977) there are numerous references to a “dying” New York and comparisons to
bright and growing Los Angeles. Allen clearly lamented the decline of his
beloved New York and rise of a rival city that he found literally sickening.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-22009695127968383422012-08-07T22:33:00.000-04:002012-08-07T22:33:04.584-04:00Achievement and Potentialby Conroy
<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiowvnrN11jt-aHcMEluOL1LWCUQB1ShxSaquCBrUq1XahqQ3ed3_4B9OZlFDqXlU4VsJZAkqHjel3rsUooE9zE4ExzippUsNJKTvRjD2dxO_4ibsEhi61eAoU0Ym3uCgPxyVCptKfP4plM/s1600/Usain_Bolt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiowvnrN11jt-aHcMEluOL1LWCUQB1ShxSaquCBrUq1XahqQ3ed3_4B9OZlFDqXlU4VsJZAkqHjel3rsUooE9zE4ExzippUsNJKTvRjD2dxO_4ibsEhi61eAoU0Ym3uCgPxyVCptKfP4plM/s320/Usain_Bolt.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Usain Bolt - the fastest man in the world?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
On Sunday evening at London’s Olympic Stadium Usain Bolt electrified
the packed stands as he <a href="http://espn.go.com/olympics/summer/2012/trackandfield/story/_/id/8236659/2012-summer-olympics-usain-bolt-dashes-gold-olympic-record-963-100-meters">surged ahead of the world’s best sprinters</a> to win the
100 meter dash in Olympic record time<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>. He flashed over those 100 meters in
little more than 9.6 seconds, an average speed of more than 23 miles per hour. For
this feat Bolt gets to keep his unofficial moniker as the “fastest man in the
world”, a title he first earned at the Beijing Olympics four years ago. And
it’s a pretty cool title – the fastest man in the world – maybe the most
elemental distinction an athlete can have. But is it true, is Usain Bolt really
the fastest man in the world?
<br />
<br />
I use a timely and prominent Olympics example to illustrate a theme
that has always interested me, the connection between achievement and
potential. This connection carries beyond sport to all aspects of human
endeavor, but let me go back to Bolt to better demonstrate what I mean.
<br />
<br />
Consider two questions:
<br />
<ul>
<li>Is there someone in the world who could go out to the track today and
beat Bolt? </li>
<li>Or, is there someone who, given the proper time and training and
preparation, could run faster than Bolt?
</li>
</ul>
<br />
The first question is easier to address, and the likely answer is no. I
suppose it’s possible that on some sun-swept Caribbean island or some American
college track a man is consistently running 100 meter times at world record
pace, but I highly doubt it. Anyone who is actually running world-class fast
would be noticed (talent attracts attention) and then be funneled into a
running program, onto a team, and find their way into competition. And to run
that fast you really can’t toil on your own. Training and coaching are
certainly needed to perform near the limits of human ability. No one today can
challenge Bolt except for the men he raced against in these Olympics and none
of them has ever run as fast as he did Sunday night<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>.
<br />
<br />
The second question is far stickier though, and it gets more to the
core of my thinking. No one has ever run faster than Usain Bolt, but does that
mean that no one <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">could</i>? There are
over seven billion people in the world, is even just one of them capable of
beating Bolt? Do they have the physical make-up, the raw talent, the potential
to be better? Perhaps these men (or women) have found their way into another sport
like soccer or football<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>, or maybe they live in places or under
circumstances that haven’t allowed them to develop their innate physical
abilities, or maybe they’ve been unlucky and gotten sick or injured or even
died without being able to explore their full potential. When you consider the
question in this context doesn’t it seem reasonable or even likely to think
that there’s someone out there in the wide world other than Bolt who <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">could</i> be the true fastest man in the
world? And think about this, there were three men from Jamaica in the 100 meter
final. That country has long been a hotbed for sprinters, but are all the
world’s fastest men really found on this tiny impoverished island nation of
less than three million people?<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>
<br />
<br />
So hopefully you see where I’m coming from. We view the results of the
100 meter dash, note the record times and correctly say that Bolt is the fastest
man<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> who’s ever tried to be the fastest
man</i>. He’s the embodiment of a very basic and universal expression of
athletic achievement (all of us with two working legs have tried to run as fast
as we could run on at least a few occasions). But who’s to say he’s the full
realization of human potential? And that leads to a broader discussion.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">What Is and What Never Was</b>
<br />
Step away from sports and think of greater achievers, like the revered scientists or artists throughout history; Newton or
Shakespeare are two of the more prominent examples. Newton may be the greatest
scientist of all time. Among other things he described the principal of
gravitation and his three laws of motion, invented calculus and other
mathematical forms, and wrote one of the canonical works of western scientific
thought with the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Philosophiae Naturalis
Principia Mathematica</i><a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>. He was by any measure a mind of the first
rank and his accumulated work has strongly influenced scientific thought and
the advancement of science for the last three hundred years. The world is a
better place because of Newton’s intellectual contributions.
<br />
<br />
Shakespeare is widely regarded as the world’s greatest dramatist and his
work is still celebrated and performed by all cultures and in all major
languages. Shakespeare is widely credited with expanding and enriching the
English language and his myriad neologisms pepper our everyday speech<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you believe as I do that only the
artist can really express what it is to be human, then few can hold a higher
place in our understanding of mankind. And indeed, perhaps no artists is held
in higher esteem or has been more influential in world literature than
Shakespeare.
<br />
<br />
But in the light of these accomplishments I’ll offer a counter-factual:
what if Newton of Shakespeare never lived? Or what if they never devoted
themselves to their genius? What if Newton had focused on alchemy and
Shakespeare had never left his wife and young children in Stratford?
<br />
<br />
I think in many ways we live in a world with the belief that talent
will rise to the top, that genius will be expressed, that the greatest minds
will find their outlet and reach their full potential. That a Newton or
Einstein will always find the truth in the universe, that a Shakespeare or
Joyce will always capture the essence of the world with their words, that a Beethoven
will pull glorious harmony out of the vibrating air, or that a Usain Bolt will
find his way to the track. But while I’d like to believe that, I just can’t see
the world as that simple. There just isn’t such inevitability to human life.
Shakespeare lived in an era where the plague ravaged London. What if he had
contracted the disease and died long before he completed his greatest plays?<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a>
What if Beethoven had decided to stop creating music when he started losing his
hearing? Or what if, say, a teenage Roger Federer had decided to concentrate on
soccer instead of tennis?
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgvOOr2uhPOlbP3aRDR7SV2QVcKSixIGgnxUy8eHclsqzMT-me1-iEsyRgNRpOpCz8Gdrei9BBxgOPMu6t7T69lunsYaLehdAcfOsZx8v06MwenvZwx1zF9FOZGS2a_1np37UO8_XSaKt1/s1600/Isaac+Newton-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgvOOr2uhPOlbP3aRDR7SV2QVcKSixIGgnxUy8eHclsqzMT-me1-iEsyRgNRpOpCz8Gdrei9BBxgOPMu6t7T69lunsYaLehdAcfOsZx8v06MwenvZwx1zF9FOZGS2a_1np37UO8_XSaKt1/s1600/Isaac+Newton-1.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Did Newton have any equals that history never knew?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Questioning what could have happened or what never was doesn’t really
get you anywhere. But I come back to my central curiosity. Humans in the last
10,000 plus years of civilization have made tremendous advancements as a
species (mindboggling really). Whether it’s minor accomplishments like a
sporting landmark, major scientific breakthroughs that have given rise to
life-improving technological change, or soul-enhancing artistic expression, our
achievements are breathtaking. But what have we missed, what hasn’t happened? What
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ulysses</i> or <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hamlet</i> will we never get to read because the authors never got to
express their thoughts? What life-advancing medical breakthroughs have we not
been able to enjoy because a would-be doctor never found their way to medicine?
(Maybe we’d already have the cure for the common cold.) What jaw-dropping
athletic feat have I never witnessed because the player never took the field?
<br />
<br />
No one can say, but I’m certain that in a world full of human
achievement there is profusion of unrealized potential. I can’t help but marvel
at the strides we’ve taken and look forward excitedly to what tomorrow brings,
but I also can’t help but wonder about at all the genius and great
accomplishment that we’ll never know we’ve missed. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We call Usain Bolt the fastest man in the
world, but I can’t help but wonder who out there might make even the mighty
Bolt look second best.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1. </span></b></a></a>Usain
Bolt won his second 100 meter gold medal in an Olympic record time of 9.63
seconds. This bested his Beijing gold medal, and previous Olympic record, time
of 9.69 seconds. His winning time was the second fastest in history to his own
world record time of 9.58 seconds set in 2009 in Berlin. In total he owns the
four fastest official 100 meter times in history.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a>
In addition to Bolt, the 100 meter final included the next three fastest men in
history, Tyson Gay of the U.S. and Johan Blake and Asafa Powell of Jamaica. Not
to mention the American champion and 2004 Olympic gold medalist Justin Gatlin.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a>
American football.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a>
Jamaicans have <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression">owned the 100 meter record since 2005</a>, when Asafa Powell ran
9.77 seconds. Powell subsequently lowered the record to 9.74 seconds before
Bolt entered the stage.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a>
He was also a theologian and alchemist, and interesting man whose
preoccupations included rational and groundbreaking scientific thought, deep
religious fervor, and a belief in the occult.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a>
Such as: all’s well that ends well, bated breath, be-all and the end-all, break
the ice, dead as a doornail, every dog will have its day, forever and a day,
foregone conclusion, heart of gold, in my heart of hearts, in my mind’s eye,
laughing stock, love is blind, neither rhyme nor reason, one fell swoop, own
flesh and blood, what’s past is prologue, pomp and circumstance, salad days,
sea change, sound and fury, this mortal coil, wear my heart upon my sleeve, and
the world’s my oyster.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a>Or
died in his youth like his own son Hamnet.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-5797126196532236572012-07-24T10:04:00.002-04:002012-07-24T10:04:25.823-04:00Use Your Turn Signalby Conroy
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaDOpdzDjWpl8nkGakrUB78oat9GsFZhWg2rqwlzlZUdgl3xicUlUD4w8x4qwmcMGDLgGL9asD3AIVAa5HUmagFJ1aJsBrWxODBH-hPIWzJjGxB3Q84izejZTtGyCXmoj45KxX9KHTM9QJ/s1600/TurnSignal-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaDOpdzDjWpl8nkGakrUB78oat9GsFZhWg2rqwlzlZUdgl3xicUlUD4w8x4qwmcMGDLgGL9asD3AIVAa5HUmagFJ1aJsBrWxODBH-hPIWzJjGxB3Q84izejZTtGyCXmoj45KxX9KHTM9QJ/s320/TurnSignal-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
My girlfriend strongly encouraged me to write a post about one of my
pet peeves: the many drivers – other drivers – who don’t use their car’s turn
signals. Does this exasperate you as much as it does me? We’ve all been there,
you’re driving along a busy road and the brake lights of the car in front of
you flash bright red, and the car begins to slow, and you’re confused because
there’s no reason you can see to be slowing down. Is there something wrong with
their car? Is there debris in the road? Is there an accident ahead? No wait,
the car isn’t going to, yes, it’s turning into a driveway. Of course you could
have rear-ended the car because the driver just abruptly slowed to a virtual
stop in the road with no warning whatsoever to you about what was going on. They
didn’t use their turn signal. You know, the standard issue, easily accessible,
simple-to-use, installed-for-a-clear-purpose turn signal. The turn signal designed
specifically to alert other drivers (like you) about turns and lane changes.
The turn signal whose purpose is to increase the safe operation of your car and
to make the roads safer and operate better for everyone. The turn signal…wait, I’ve
already started ranting.
<br />
<br />
I think her encouragement mostly stems from a hope that by writing
about it I’ll stop preaching to her and berating other drivers (not that they
know it), every time I see someone not use their turn signal, which seems like multiple
times every single day. Lately I’ve been honking at drivers in front of me who
fail to use their signals<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>. It’s my attempt to shame them, but I won’t
do that to my readers, so I’ll just proffer some advice, use your turn signal. But
if you need more encouragement, read on.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Lazy, the Selfish, and the
Wrong</b>
<br />
I’ve given this issue some thought and I’ve identified three possible
reasons why people fail to use their signals: (1) laziness, (2) an intellectual
or philosophical position that finds the use of turn signals unnecessary, and
(3) a selfishness that borders on contempt for everyone else on the road. None
of these reasons is justifiable and all counterarguments in support of them are
untenable, but let’s take them one at a time.
<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Is this action really so hard?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
First laziness. You’re driving along and you approach an intersection where
you’re going to turn left. There’s a car behind you. But you decide it’s too
much trouble to shift your left arm<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a> a few inches to the turn signal shaft and
apply a downward flick of the fingers to engage the left turn signal. An
action that takes about one second and requires essentially zero energy<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>.
You decide that the no-time-zero-effort action is still too much for you. You’d
rather risk getting in an accident, endangering your safety and property (not
to mention that of the driver and vehicle behind you) by not warning the driver
behind that you’ll be stopping to turn. No, don’t be lame, use your turn
signal.
<br />
<br />
I suppose one could take a position that turn signals are often
unnecessary and therefore can go unused. After all, why do you, a competent
driver, need to alert other drivers that you’ll be changing lanes on the
highway? If there’s a gap between vehicles you’ll take it. If you’re going to
make a turn, you’ll check your rearview mirror and slow gradually (and you
might even shift slightly toward the side of the road in the direction of your
turn to give the vehicles behind you some room to pass). Other drivers don’t
need to know every little move you’re going to make, you’ll take care of your
driving and they can take care of theirs. Wrong. We’re all using the roads
together; driving is a social behavior. Turn signals are meant to convey
information to all of the other drivers about what you’re going to do. I’m sure
you’ve seen two drivers try and simultaneously merge into a highway lane, one
from the left and one from the right, and then one or both suddenly swerve or
brake to avoid a high-speed sideswipe collision. Why does this happen? Because neither driver had
their turn signal on, and so neither one knew that the other driver was
planning to merge.
<br />
<br />
It’s foolishness to assume that other drivers are going to intuit or
anticipate your driving behavior. It’s your job as a driver to do everything in
your power to make sure everyone else knows what you’re planning to do, including
and especially turning or changing lanes. Use your turn signal. And even if the
road is empty with not another car for hundreds of yards, use your turn signal
anyway<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>.
Make it a habit. You stop at a red light or stop sign<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a> in the middle of the
night for the same reason, so you’ll be conditioned to stop when traffic is
very heavy. It’s same reason you put on your seatbelt no matter how short a
trip or how slow you’ll be driving. Engage your turn signal whenever you merge
or turn, period.
<br />
<br />
Finally, there’s that selfishness that leads drivers to totally ignore
everyone else. You’re driving in your car, in your own world, your car cocoon oblivious
or dismissive of everything and everyone else around you. The drivers of others
cars are mere abstractions, unknown and barely glimpsed, and therefore they can
be ignored. You can talk on the phone or text or fiddle with the radio and if
you don’t have a hand free for the turn signal, so be it. If the other cars
(and the people in them) aren’t important enough to consider then why bother
with the turn signal? You’ve got your own worries, your own places to get to, and
your own things to get done. All of the other drivers on the road are just
obstacles in your way. There’s no chance that any one of them has anywhere
equally important to be or get done, or that their destination is even more important
and their timetable even more pressing than yours (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">that you might be in their way</i>). Get over yourself, put the phone
down, pay attention to the road, and engage other drivers on equal terms. Use
your turn signal.
<br />
<br />
The decision-making (or lack thereof), the attitude, the general disregard
that leads people to not use their turn signals can be defined by one word, it’s
antisocial. You may not be a bad person, but if you fail to use your turn signal
you are engaging in bad behavior. If a mark of maturity and wisdom is the
ability to empathize and see the world from another’s perspective, then there’s
no reason not do the mature, the safe, the smart thing. So please, be an adult
and use your turn signal.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a>
A practice that I’m sure my girlfriend doesn’t always appreciate. Though she agrees about this whole failure-to-use-the-turn-signal issue.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a>
If you drive on the right side of the road like in the U.S.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a>
And I suppose you could suggest that inertia, Newton’s law that an object a
rest (your arm in this case, and maybe your brain) will stay at rest unless
acted upon by an outside force, comes into play. And that there is an effort to
move your hand and engage the turn signal and it doesn’t matter how easy it is,
it only matters that an action is required, and it’s the fact of the action and
not the amount of energy required that is the key. Easy or hard an action is an
action and therefore engaging the turn signal is much more of an effort than I’m
giving credit for being. To which I’ll counter that if your energetic enough to
make that argument you’re certainly energetic enough to use your turn signal.
So use your turn signal and leave Newton out of it.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a>
And this applies to other vehicle-operating behaviors like turning on your
headlights. It doesn’t matter if you have the night vision of a cat and even in deep twilight can see the
vague outlines of the road and cars. What matters is that the normal vision
humans driving other cars may not be able to see you. So turn on your headlights
for them. Everyone’s safety, yours included, will be enhanced.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a>
Assuming of course that you always stop at stop signs, which you should no
matter how silly it may seem when no other car is at or approaching the
intersection. Heck if you need any reason, do it to avoid getting a ticket from
the police officer who you know is just waiting, hidden, to catch you running a
stop sign so they can cite you and ruin your day.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-7993841111844594192012-07-12T17:16:00.001-04:002012-07-12T17:16:25.899-04:00Roger Federer and the 2012 Tennis Seasonby Conroy
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEVzjyiRfQFixuLZ66eppJjGuA7-XDxVLkWK2c9d7ZA4HZZRfFsJpSosfeDMoYZb4BK9Ii3WkA0M8NYNUzzS5y1Fov0tkEudJI-DSiVoavAGvYWokJvAUIENcT3HzkMkcIyMu6OYqE_jLx/s1600/federer+2012+wimbledon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEVzjyiRfQFixuLZ66eppJjGuA7-XDxVLkWK2c9d7ZA4HZZRfFsJpSosfeDMoYZb4BK9Ii3WkA0M8NYNUzzS5y1Fov0tkEudJI-DSiVoavAGvYWokJvAUIENcT3HzkMkcIyMu6OYqE_jLx/s320/federer+2012+wimbledon.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Roger Federer victorious at Wimbledon for the seventh time</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Roger Federer collapsed awkwardly to the grass as Andy Murray’s
backhand passing shot, the last stroke of the 2012 Wimbledon Championships,
fell wide of the sideline. The Centre Court crowd cheered in appreciation as
they watched the Swiss champion defeat their local hope<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>. Federer had <a href="http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2012/07/27/Wimbledon-Sunday2-Final-Report.aspx">won another Wimbledon title</a>, his seventh, had won another grand slam tournament,
his 17<sup>th</sup>, and reclaimed the number 1 ranking (all records). His fall
to the turf was just about the only ungraceful step he took all day. His tennis
was, by any measure, a sublime, vintage display as he outplayed an in-form
Murray (and subdued the wildly expectant and partisan British audience) to win the
competitive match 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4. With this latest win he is once again the
king of tennis, the mighty Roger Federer, the greatest player of all time.
<br />
<br />
Perhaps no two points encapsulate just how well Federer played then the
two points that ended the second set. The score is 5-6, 30-30 with Murray, leading the match after having won a close first set, serving to take the
second set to a tiebreaker. The players engage in a neutral baseline rally
before Federer rips an inside-out forehand off a short mid-court ball deep into
Murray’s backhand corner. Murray plays a smart soft backhand up the line but
Federer has anticipated it and streaks to cut the ball off at the service line,
hitting a great drop volley that Murray, despite all his speed, can barely
reach and pushes long of the baseline. Now the score is 30-40, set point. Again
the players engage in a baseline rally until Federer hits a short angled
forehand to Murray’s forehand sideline. Murray is forced to lunge for the ball
hitting it back to Federer who then rips a backhand crosscourt to Murray’s
backhand corner. The Scot scrambles madly to get to the ball, but Federer has
anticipated a weak crosscourt reply and is already sprinting toward the net,
where he intercepts the ball near the service line and plays one of the most
exquisite drop volleys you’ll ever see, the ball landing close to the net and literally
bouncing low and sideways off the turf, and making its second bounce (and stopping
cold) before the sprinting Murray can reach it. The set was Federer’s and from
then on the outcome of the match was never in doubt. These points highlight
what Federer tennis is all about, variety, sharp ball striking, point
construction and anticipation, and jaw-dropping shot making (I let out an audible gasp on seeing that set point). Match highlights
(including these two points) can be viewed <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrzWS-eq5JQ">here</a>.
<br />
<br />
Coming into the 2012 tennis season few projected the renaissance of
Roger Federer. The whispers were of a fading champion whose time of winning had
passed. When <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/05/heart-of-season.html">I last wrote about tennis</a> before the major clay court tournaments
leading into the French Open (Roland Garros), I suggested three likely outcomes
as the tour went through the heart of the season from the European clay-court spring
through the U.S. Open in September. My least likely outcome
(of three possible) was Federer regaining the number 1 ranking. So how did he do it and where does
that leave his main (and recently dominant) rivals Novak Djokovic and Rafael
Nadal? And what about the rest of the men’s field?
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2012 from Australia to Wimbledon</b>
<br />
2012 has been a highly competitive year –
between the three men that continue to dominate tennis. And unlike last year, when
the story was repeatedly Novak Djokovic besting Rafael Nadal, 2012 has seen Federer
elbow his way back into the mix. Compare the major tournament winners from the
last two years:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td rowspan="2" style="background: #3399FF; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Tournament</span></b></div>
</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background: #3399FF; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 157.5pt;" width="210"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">2011 </span></b></div>
</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background: #3399FF; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 157.5pt;" width="210"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">2012</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Winner</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Finalist</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Winner</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Finalist</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Australian
Open</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Novak
Djokovic</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Andy
Murray</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Djokovic</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Rafael
Nadal</b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Indian Wells</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Roger Federer</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
John Isner</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Miami</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Murray</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Monte Carlo</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
David Ferrer</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Djokovic</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Madrid</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Federer</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Tomas Berdych</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Rome</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
Djokovic</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Roland
Garros</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Nadal</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Federer</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Nadal</b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Djokovic</b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.2in;" valign="top" width="115"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Wimbledon</b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 85.5pt;" valign="top" width="114"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Djokovic</b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Nadal</b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Federer</b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Murray</b></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Federer stated after his Wimbledon win that after last year's disappointing losses he was determined to take a more
offensive approach into his matches with Djokovic and Nadal. That’s been clear
tactic in recent matches. Unfortunately, that approach is blunted on slow clay, but on hard courts, especially fast hard courts, and grass, it is a
winning strategy. So in the table above we see Federer’s name on the winner’s
line in several big tournaments in 2012 where he was absent in 2011 (including the novel, fast, and apparently very slippery blue clay featured this year - for the first and last time - in Madrid). (What this
table also shows is that no other man has been able to break through and win a
big tournament. 2012 has been competitive amongst the “Big 3”, but the field
still lags behind. Through Wimbledon, Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic have won 30
of the last 31 grand slam titles<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>.)
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIBgFKOIKX7bzi_XKZZDRRqL0bH5qG-rtIVD68skAFKvdmKLpCBMDQylj82BVW_fzNwnmFKODPpWt1x7vXFcN7NC46BBjjPqKI36m_YmziclO4MaEeAmiva1THJdghLX2TbVnnOWo4DkA1/s1600/rafael+nadal+french+open+2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIBgFKOIKX7bzi_XKZZDRRqL0bH5qG-rtIVD68skAFKvdmKLpCBMDQylj82BVW_fzNwnmFKODPpWt1x7vXFcN7NC46BBjjPqKI36m_YmziclO4MaEeAmiva1THJdghLX2TbVnnOWo4DkA1/s320/rafael+nadal+french+open+2012.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Nadal playing - and beating - Djokovic at Roland Garros</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It’s also clear the Novak Djokovic has been less consistent this year
than last. Last year he was winning on all surfaces, this year he hasn’t. That led
to a major shift that was all the talk in the tennis world before Wimbledon,
Rafael Nadal getting the better of Djokovic on the European clay courts,
changing the dynamic from last year and positioning the Spaniard for greater success
in 2012, more grand slams, and the number 1 ranking. The clay courts in Paris
played very slow this year, conditions perfect for Nadal and his impenetrable
clay court defense. He sliced through his draw (seven doomed men as <a href="http://blogs.tennis.com/tennisworld/2012/05/rafa-time.html">Pete Bodo labeled them</a>) and despite a temporary hiccup in the final against Djokovic<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>
he emphatically won his 11<sup>th</sup> grand slam. The title was his record seventh
at Roland Garros, and was correctly hailed as a historic accomplishment, leaving
no one in doubt that Nadal is the greatest clay court player in history. Most
pundits picked him to carry his success onto grass and claim another Wimbledon
title. Instead, and as proof that all glory is fleeting, he was famously upset by unknown Lukas Rosol in the second
round (it’s worth watching Rosol’s unbelievable performance<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>, see highlights <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRBRcoP2F38">here</a>). Nadal’s
2012 was not going to be a repeat of his 2010 or even 2008.
<br />
<br />
Roger Federer nearly lost the next day as he had to fight back from two
sets down to beat journeyman Julien Benneteau in the third round. He was two
points from defeat on five separate occasions. A few points here and there make
all the difference. He fought through back issues in his next match. But he
found his best form and full fitness for the last three matches, including an
impressive win over defending champion Djokovic in the semi-finals. The
Wimbledon triumph was a culmination of Federer’s resurgence. Last year he repeatedly
lost to Nadal and Djokovic (1-7 through the U.S. Open), but this year he hasn’t
(2-3 so far and 2-1 on hard courts and grass), including beating Nadal on the
way to the Indian Wells title. The balance of power in tennis rests on who wins
and loses a handful of key matches. This year Federer has won some of the
matches that last year he lost. Last year he was clearly number 3, this year
the top 3 have been much closer.
<br />
<br />
Just consider how each man won at this year’s grand slams: Djokovic
beat Nadal to win in Australia, Nadal beat Djokovic to win at Roland Garros,
and Federer beat Djokovic to win Wimbledon. If any of these results were
different, then the rankings and storylines would be too.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">2012 After Wimbledon</b>
<br />
So what might we expect for the rest of the
season? I don’t make predictions but I feel confident in writing that the
remainder of the 2012 tennis season will continue to be dominated by Federer,
Djokovic, and Nadal. There is little evidence to suggest otherwise. They’ve won
every big tournament so far and until someone else breaks up their hegemony
(which we’ve been waiting for years to happen) there’s little reason to think
they won’t continue to do so. So focusing on them, let’s first consider in a
little more detail what has happened so far this year. Here are their season
records through Wimbledon:<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="5" style="background: #3399FF; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 347.4pt;" valign="top" width="463"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">2012 Season</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Record</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">PCT.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Grand Slams</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Titles</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Roger
Federer</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
46-6</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.885</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Novak
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
41-7</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.854</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Rafael
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
42-6</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.875</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
These records are remarkably similar, just as they were before the big
lead up tournaments to Rolland Garros. In fact, this similarity extends all
the way back to the beginning of last season:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="5" style="background: #3399FF; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 347.4pt;" valign="top" width="463"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">2011-2012 Seasons</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Record</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">PCT.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Grand Slams</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Titles</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Roger
Federer</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
110-18</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.859</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Novak
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
111-13</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.895</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
12</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Rafael
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
111-21</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.841</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
7</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Novak Djokovic’s remarkable 2011 gives him the best overall statistics,
but the similar number of wins and the overall success in both grand slams and
titles is impressive for all three. But looking forward we need to consider the
dynamics of the tennis season. Any given tennis season is really five shorter seasons,
the opening hard court swing from January through March, the clay court swing
from April to June, a short grass court season around Wimbledon, the hard court
summer from July through the U.S. Open, and then a long post-U.S. Open hard
court denouement through the end of November. So we’ve arrived at the point after
Wimbledon when the tour returns to hard courts, where it will remain (outside or
indoors) for the rest of the season. The wrinkle this year is that the London
Olympics, where tennis is a sport<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a> and all of the top players will be
competing, are being played on grass right back at the All England Club<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>.
I don’t know what to expect at the Olympics, it’s a very rare dynamic to have
consecutive highly valued tournaments played at the same venue, and grass is
the least played upon surface. So who knows, but you probably have to favor
those players that do best on grass. Those players are of course the usual
suspects: Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal (and to a lesser extent Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried
Tsonga). You also have to consider the Olympic dynamic, which can lift players
filled up on national pride to unexpected success.
<br />
<br />
But Olympics aside, when thinking about the rest
of the season, I think it’s valid to look at the hard court/grass court (i.e,
non-clay court) record of the Big 3 since the beginning of last year:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="5" style="background: #3399FF; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 347.4pt;" valign="top" width="463"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">2011-2012 Hard Court/Grass
Court Seasons</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Record</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">PCT.</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Grand Slams</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #3399FF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Titles</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
1.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Roger
Federer</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
84-11</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.884</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
8</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
2.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Novak
Djokovic</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
78-7</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.918</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div class="MsoListParagraph" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -9.0pt;">
3.<span style="font: 7pt "Times New Roman";"> </span>Rafael
Nadal</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.65pt;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
60-18</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="54"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0.769</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 76.5pt;" valign="top" width="102"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0</div>
</td>
<td style="background: #FFFF99; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="top" width="84"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Now a major discrepancy is revealed. Nadal’s performance off of the
European clay courts has been clearly inferior to that of Federer and Djokovic.
In fact, Nadal hasn’t won a non-clay court title since October 2010. This trend
doesn’t bode well for Nadal’s chances to win the U.S. Open or reclaim the
number 1 ranking this season. Add to that reports coming out of Nadal’s camp
that his <a href="http://www.tennisnow.com/News/Nadal-Withdraws-From-Exhibition-To-Rest-for-Olympi.aspx">knee tendonitis is flaring up</a> – and hard court tennis is no friend to
painful knees – and Nadal’s season, which was looking so bright after his Roland
Garros triumph, may end up being as frustrating for him as last year.
<br />
<br />
On the other hand, both Federer and Djokovic have thrived on hard courts.
For Federer, since last year’s U.S. Open loss to Djokovic, where it should be
remembered he held two match points while serving in their memorable
semi-final, he has gone 40-2 on hard courts, winning six of the nine
tournaments he’s played on the surface<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a>. For his part, Djokovic has won the two
biggest hard court tournaments this season, the Australian Open and Miami. He
must surely be considered the best hard court player in the world considering he’s
won the last three hard court grand slams<a name="15"><a href="#16"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">8</span></sup></b></a></a>. The smart money would have to be on one
of them winning the U.S. Open and ending the year ranked number 1.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Who Else Could Emerge?</b>
<br />
As this post and the many tennis posts I’ve written over the last
couple of years show, tennis in this era is a very deterministic sport. By that
I mean that the outcomes, seemingly so variable and unpredictable from
tournament to tournament and year to year, have in fact been highly
predictable. Over the last eight or nine years the champions have always been
the same men. This is in many ways the nature of the sport. There’s no clock to
run out and point-after-point, game-after-game, set-after-set, gives time for
the better player to establish their game and for the lesser player to make
mistakes or wilt under the pressure. This is exacerbated at the grand slam where
an upset has to be won over best of five set matches.
<br />
<br />
This might be tennis’ great golden era of super-elite players battling
for their place in the record books and tennis pantheon. I believe there’s
truth in that argument, and certainly no one can argue against the claim that the level of tennis
being played by Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic has raised the entire sport in the
last decade. But there’s another side. Such predictability, as seen in seemingly
invariable outcomes, is counter to one of the core reasons why we watch sports:
to see something new or unpredictable or surprising. Yes we want to see the
best play their best, but we don’t want to see the same thing all the time.
Today’s tennis has gotten the first part wonderfully right but not the second.
There’s no blaming the Big 3 for this, they want to win; the change will come
from someone else beating them. Could this happen this year?
<br />
<br />
I consider hard courts to be a neutral surface in that they play at a
speed between slow clay and fast grass, and produce predictable bounces also
somewhere between the high-bouncing clay and low-skidding grass. And the
majority of the tour is played on hard courts. This means that more players
stand a chance at winning than on the specialized clay and grass surfaces (Nadal
and Federer, the best specialists in the world, have won 15 of the last 16
Roland Garros and Wimbledon titles). For competitive balance and the general
hope of seeing something different than we’ve seen over the last several years,
this is a good thing. So who else besides the Big 3 may prosper?
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPS1D-vmPPGagNKCLis5s2YCJZa89s7fu_y0g7I2YUemPs3Upj-WsN-8fgQ9jXtXGIBCwVfJXV327rFt47rpU-Z2NMxY_q_fOaVB8HQug-rRDgHVjtFMt1jYCs7sKokqaeHSYhRow9Q6l2/s1600/Andy+Murray+Wimbledon+2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPS1D-vmPPGagNKCLis5s2YCJZa89s7fu_y0g7I2YUemPs3Upj-WsN-8fgQ9jXtXGIBCwVfJXV327rFt47rpU-Z2NMxY_q_fOaVB8HQug-rRDgHVjtFMt1jYCs7sKokqaeHSYhRow9Q6l2/s320/Andy+Murray+Wimbledon+2012.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Andy Murray, the next to dethrone the Big 3?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
First is Andy Murray. He played a very good match against Federer in
his first ever Wimbledon final. Hopefully this will boost his confidence for
his best surface – hard courts. His other three grand slam finals have come on
hard courts (two in Australia and one at the U.S. Open) and he’s won eight hard
court ATP 1000 tournaments, which is equal to Djokovic and trails only Federer
(14) among active players. Murray can win on hard courts and if/when he wins a
grand slam it’s likely to be in Melbourne or New York. His challenge is beating the Big 3 at a grand
slam; he’s lost his last eight grand slam matches to them dating back to the
2010 Australian Open (0-2 against Federer, 0-4 against Nadal, and 0-2 against
Djokovic). He’s been stuck at number 4 for several years and the only way to
breakthrough is to beat the guys ahead of him. No doubt Murray is capable, he
just needs to win.
<br />
<br />
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, and Juan Martin Del
Potro are all Top 10 players with complete games and past hard court success.
Hypothetically they can all win if they get hot and the draw falls a bit in
their favor. Their resumes include grand slam wins over all of the Big 3. But
watching these men for years, I have little confidence that they’ll actually
come through. Least likely are the handful of big-serving wild cards that could
win on any given day, most notably John Isner and Milos Roanic.
<br />
<br />
Whether it’s Andy Murray or some other Top 10 player, it would be
surprising but refreshing to see someone else lift a grand slam trophy. Tennis
doesn’t have to be a deterministic sport, upsets can be exciting and unexpected
champions can be someone to cheer for. I wouldn’t bet on it happening, but it would
be something different for the U.S. Open, and that would be a good thing.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a>
The English nation has been haunted by the lack of an English champion at
Wimbledon since Fred Perry way back in 1936. English player Tin Henman famously
failed to triumph at Wimbledon in the 90s and early 00s. Over the last several
years the English public has seen Andy Murray (rightly) as their best hope to
win a grand slam, and especially Wimbledon. So Murray, a Scot, has been adopted
by the English as a local favorite under the general moniker of a “British”
champion. (At the same time that the Scots are <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-17094333">striving for greater independence</a> within the United Kingdom, and especially less control from
English London.)
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> The lone exception being Juan Martin Del Potro
at the 2009 U.S. Open, a result that seems more and more amazing with every
passing grand slam tournament.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> In the final Nadal won the first two sets, both
full of uneven play, before a steady drizzle dampened the courts and balls and
took much of the sting out of his spinny groundstrokes. Djokovic took advantage
dominating the third set and taking a lead in the fourth before the rain and
growing darkness halted play for the day. They resumed the next day and Nadal
was able to fight back, winning the fourth set 7-5, taking the match and a
desperately needed grand slam win over Djokovic.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> These types of early round upsets are so rare
amongst the Big 3 that this might be the greatest upset in Wimbledon history.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> And I will again note that I don’t believe
tennis, a professional sport with a well-established tour and lots of public
notice, should be an Olympic sport. But my view seems to be in the minority and
the players certainly seem to value it.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6.</span></b></a></a>
Officially named the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. A very English
title.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a>
His losses came to Nadal in the semi-finals of the Australian Open and to Andy
Roddick in the third round at Miami. The latter was certainly the biggest win
of Roddick’s poor season. Federer also withdrew from the season-opening Doha
tournament before the semi-finals with a bad back.
<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">8.</span></b></a></a>
And his record this year is a not-to-shabby 20-2 with his two losses coming to
Andy Murray (another superior hard court player) in Dubai and John Isner in one
of the finest ever performances by the American in the Indian Wells
semi-finals.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-74218824215857511552012-07-02T19:52:00.003-04:002012-07-12T17:22:12.614-04:00Sinking Citiesby Conroy
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheiPTvekoOvnAuKjh5HtD9WK8Nu-EFvItnQWXZuruLIMYtQiYfjKRJ10hUTKENQUeAtucjlj_Sg410YAGb7zdCKvyofpCwQgcEP5FYs148o6bYBXfTeyuXLiicnj1kGYngFiuJGUxM-HOK/s1600/Baltimore+Flooded.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheiPTvekoOvnAuKjh5HtD9WK8Nu-EFvItnQWXZuruLIMYtQiYfjKRJ10hUTKENQUeAtucjlj_Sg410YAGb7zdCKvyofpCwQgcEP5FYs148o6bYBXfTeyuXLiicnj1kGYngFiuJGUxM-HOK/s320/Baltimore+Flooded.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Baltimore flooded by Hurricane Isabel</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Are America’s coastal cities facing a losing battle against the sea? Consider these
facts from cities all along the U.S. East Coast: In Galveston, Texas, a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Seawall">long sea wall</a> shields the city from the Gulf of Mexico. The sea wall worked for a
century, but in 2008 the storm surge from Hurricane Ike overtopped the wall and
flooded the adjacent streets. In the early 1980s Miami-Dade County spent $50
million to rebuild the eroding shore line of Miami Beach. Similar projects,
officially termed “beach nourishment”, are common all along the Atlantic
seaboard<a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></b></a></a>. In some precariously
narrow sections of Hatteras Island, North Carolina, far off the mainland in the
state’s Outer Banks, sand bags line both sides of the state route 12 to keep
the Atlantic on one side and Pamlico Sound on the other from splitting the
island. Back in 2003 when <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel#Impact">Hurricane Isabel</a> roared up the East Coast, the island
was split and an emergency project was required to stop the erosion and prevent
the split from becoming permanent. Hurricane Isabel continued its movement up
the East Coast flooding coastal areas of Virginia and as it moved inland its
powerful storm surge funneled water up the Chesapeake Bay causing widespread
flooding in coastal Maryland, and putting Baltimore, including downtown, under
several feet of water. The flooding even extended far up the tidal Potomac to Washington,
D.C. In 2011, the storm surge from Hurricane Irene flooded parts of Brooklyn
and lower Manhattan. Further north, Nantucket Island off of Cape Cod is
literally eroding into the sea, taking pricey homes with it.
<br />
<br />
As
these examples above demonstrate, being next to the sea has its dangers, and
fighting the long-term trend of beach erosion and flooding are never-ending
expensive battles. This situation is only going to get worse if a planet-wide
trend continues: rising sea levels. Consider that just along the Atlantic and
Gulf coasts Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington,
Jacksonville, Miami and Southeast Florida, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans are
situated at least in part at sea level. And it’s not just major metropolitan
areas that are at risk, the low-lying shores of the Houston shipping channel, just
inland from Galveston, are home to one of the nation’s largest ports and lined
with the nation’s largest concentration of petroleum refining plants. Are all
of these areas destined to be inundated over the next century?
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Sea Levels Rising</b>
<br />
Of
course the first thing that has to be answered is: Are sea levels actually
rising? And to answer that, we need to understand what sea level is. Sea level
is harder to define than it may seem because of course the flowing, undulating
sea never seems to have one level. However, the most basic definition is the
average surface elevation of the oceans when surface fluctuations, like high
and low tides are averaged out. This seems like a reasonable definition but it
nevertheless can be hard to pin down. Note that the average sea level of the
Atlantic end of the Panama Canal is nearly eight inches lower than at the
Pacific end. Still, it’s fair to say that there is a local “sea level” for all
places where land meets tidal water. Historically these levels have been
measured from set gauges on land, and more recently satellites have been used
to observe global sea levels.
<br />
<br />
The
results of these measures seem to confirm that sea levels are indeed rising all
over the world. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)<a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></b></a></a>, global sea levels have been
rising by about 1.8 millimeters per year (mm/yr.). If this estimate is in any
way accurate, and indicative of a continuing trend (and not a rate that may
slow or even reverse in the near future), there’s probably no need for
immediate panic. At this rate it would take about 555 years for global sea
levels to rise by one meter or about 170 years to rise one foot. This is hardly
a catastrophic rate of increase. However, rising sea levels, whatever the rate,
do pose an obvious risk to coastal areas. And many estimates, including those
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), put the <a href="http://www.csc.noaa.gov/publications/inundation-workshop.pdf">annual sea level rise much higher</a> than the IPCC.
<br />
<br />
But
what causes sea level to change? On geologic timescales, ocean bottom
elevations and plate tectonics play major roles. These occur so slowly that they
don’t affect us. More important are short term causes like tides, onshore
winds, atmospheric pressure, surface water temperatures, evaporation,
precipitation, river runoff, and in extreme cases major storm surges and
tsunamis. On the longer term sea levels can change because glaciers and ice
caps shrink or expand. In the first case, melt water is freed from the land and
adds to the volume in the sea. In the latter case, water is trapped in ice and
global sea levels drop. Another long term trend is changes in land elevation due
to groundwater depletion, erosion, or general geological subsidence. But it’s the
melting glaciers and ice caps that have gathered most attention in recent
decades, the result, many will claim, of rising global temperatures, which is in
turn the result of man-made effects to the environment.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ2mEYWVj-skIrK2lWg1BMcJZRJuDe4E39ecjda0-5sSc25V23VVgFd_8eejKlUjmPPIwRSvyWpKm-5Gvc-Eh81xZ35LFO3hyphenhyphentLitaPWGcyYA9bVFUFRvGLYuB60Mpq_DGd3-yQ_Ft4NKV/s1600/Greenland+ice+sheet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ2mEYWVj-skIrK2lWg1BMcJZRJuDe4E39ecjda0-5sSc25V23VVgFd_8eejKlUjmPPIwRSvyWpKm-5Gvc-Eh81xZ35LFO3hyphenhyphentLitaPWGcyYA9bVFUFRvGLYuB60Mpq_DGd3-yQ_Ft4NKV/s320/Greenland+ice+sheet.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Melt water on the Greenland Ice Sheet</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Man-made
or natural, rising temperatures will melt snow and ice. If the entire Greenland
Ice Cap were to melt, global sea levels could rise by as much as 24 feet. If
the entire Antarctic Ice Cap were to melt global sea levels would rise by 200
feet. These are extremely remote possibilities, Greenland and Antarctica are
really cold places and it would take many thousands of years for them to melt.
And Arctic sea ice melting would have a negligible effect on sea levels because
these ice packs are already floating on the sea. More likely is increased
melting of ice on the periphery of Greenland and Antarctica, which could still
result in several feet of sea level rise. Also, if sea surface temperatures
increase, water density decreases and its volume increases. So higher sea
temperatures result in higher sea levels irrespective of the contribution of
more water (melted ice). It’s worth noting that <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304636404577291352882984274.html">global temperatures haven’t increased</a> over the last dozen or so years, which is directly contrary to the predictions of climate models. If
global temperatures do stabilize then sea water temperatures and ice cap/glacier
melting may not be as significant an issue as many fear.
<br />
<br />
Now
I don’t know if or how much global sea levels may be rising. Like all earth
systems, the various components that affect sea level are complicated and combine
in unexpected ways. For example, increasing global temperatures will lead to
increased precipitation, which, if it falls in the polar regions like
Antarctica, will actually increase the thickness of the ice caps and the amount
of impounded water, which would lower global sea levels. However, higher
temperatures should result in greater calving and icebergs breaking away from
the subpolar regions, which would raise global sea levels. How might these two
trends interact and which is greater?<a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></b></a></a>
When you consider all of these components there has to be question of how measurements
of these global trends can even be made and how accurate models of these global
systems can be. Let alone what predictions for future developments are possible.
<br />
<br />
It’s
also worth noting that many of the flooding examples cited at the beginning of
this post were the result of major storms, which are not in themselves
indicative of sea level rise. Never in my memory had Baltimore flooded from the
sea like in 2003, and the Galveston sea wall had stopped all storms, including
hurricanes, for a century. There’s plenty of room for debate about whether
American cities face an impending crisis from rising sea levels.
<br />
<br />
Nevertheless,
even if the global climate doesn’t warm appreciably over the next century, America’s
coastal cities would be negligent to not prepare for rising sea levels and ever
more frequent flooding. Sea levels appear to be rising slowing but consistently
and this can’t be ignored. And as we consider coastal flooding, we should first
turn from the U.S. East Coast to an ancient city on the Mediterranean.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Cities and the Sea</b>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTcw909eZNTllQ1RuHThMAjoNOrYMWnctsuW9R5bSMdKpybosXtCIRDsD3lVwVUUu06i8noF72xAvxQqqWfANpKcM91DZnTqgqtCfpgoSvl0ISEtkgBUVkxxZa5Fv6xNJ4Y_eGZYUal8gW/s1600/Venice+Floods.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTcw909eZNTllQ1RuHThMAjoNOrYMWnctsuW9R5bSMdKpybosXtCIRDsD3lVwVUUu06i8noF72xAvxQqqWfANpKcM91DZnTqgqtCfpgoSvl0ISEtkgBUVkxxZa5Fv6xNJ4Y_eGZYUal8gW/s320/Venice+Floods.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Familiar Venice floods</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
No
city in the world is married to the sea like Venice. Built upon a series of
small flat islands inside of a large lagoon off the far northwest corner of the
Adriatic Sea, Venice has suffered from flooding for centuries. Tides and storms
from the sea have washed over the quays and low-lying public places forcing the
population to trudge through inches (or more) of water. These floods have given
Venice a distinctive sea-damp odor that is as unpleasant as its unique setting
is captivating. In the 20<sup>th</sup> century the situation got worse. Wells
were sunk to draw groundwater from under the lagoon and surrounding mainland.
The groundwater drain caused the underlying aquifer to contract and the land
above it, including the Venetian islands, to sink. Flooding became more
frequent. Policy changes have stopped the sinking<a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></b></a></a>
and the Italian government is sponsoring a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSE_Project">massive project</a> to float gates into
the strait that connects the Venetian lagoon to the Adriatic. Once completed,
the gates can be closed when high tides are expected, blocking high water from
entering the lagoon<a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></b></a></a>.
<br />
<br />
This
isn’t the only example of gates being built to stop the sea. London is
vulnerable to flooding when storm surges and high tides flow up the Thames
estuary from the North Sea. Even routine tidal flows are famously extreme along
the Thames as the water literally rushes in a wave to and from the sea. When
weather systems cause these tides to rise unusually high, damage and deaths can
result, as happened many times throughout the 20<sup>th</sup> century. So in
the early 1980s the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_barrier">Thames Barrier</a> was constructed at the cost of hundreds of
millions of pounds. The barrier consists of a system of movable gates placed
across the Thames south of the city center. During very high tides or storm
surges, the gates can be deployed to stop the incoming flow of water.
<br />
<br />
In
America, the city that is probably most associated with flooding vulnerability
is New Orleans. No one could ever forget the terrible scenes as large parts of
the city were literally submerged as the levees that blocked the city from the
sea were breached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. About half of New
Orleans is below sea level, in fact in many parts of the city residents look up
at the levees that hold back the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain. It’s
this <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_Control_Act_of_1965">damming of the Mississippi</a> within and upstream of New Orleans that has
resulted in the river “rising” and the land sinking<a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">6</span></sup></b></a></a>. The “high” half of the city is still no more than a few
feet above sea level. New Orleans remains vulnerable to flooding even as major
flood control projects continue in and around the city.
<br />
<br />
New
Orleans will always be vulnerable to flooding, but it isn’t the only major
urban area that is dealing with coastal flooding as a present threat rather
than a future concern.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">America’s Most Vulnerable Urban Area</b>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiex7KrsXbWe4BrhsXUFxwzsg8W84EpVzig47NmPdZmVy0hWvMjPNUhkAPXvXrooJMGRPVNfKb0GlAse8xqqm4NdSREqyQgzJo6aejR7tPTaWsDDe21P01Q1PMhvg51UqV0pEEKLz0P4cNW/s1600/Hampton+Roads.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiex7KrsXbWe4BrhsXUFxwzsg8W84EpVzig47NmPdZmVy0hWvMjPNUhkAPXvXrooJMGRPVNfKb0GlAse8xqqm4NdSREqyQgzJo6aejR7tPTaWsDDe21P01Q1PMhvg51UqV0pEEKLz0P4cNW/s1600/Hampton+Roads.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite view of Hampton Roads</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
One
of the world’s great natural harbors lies in southeast Virginia where the wide
tidal mouth of the James River flows into the Chesapeake Bay as it empties into
the Atlantic Ocean. This mixing of waters is known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hampton_Roads">Hampton Roads</a> and it’s
surrounded by low-lying coastal plain carved by tidal rivers and streams. This
land is heavily built-up and includes the large cities of Norfolk, Portsmouth,
Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach on the south; Hampton and Newport News to the
north.
<br />
<br />
This
area is awash with history. It was only a short distance up the James where the
first permanent British settlement on mainland North America was established at
Jamestown. It was at Yorktown (just to the north) where General Cornwallis
surrendered to George Washington, effectively ending the American Revolutionary
War. Later, during the American Civil War, Hampton Roads was the scene of
several important battles including the first ever clash of ironclad ships as
the Confederate Merrimack<a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">7</span></sup></b></a></a> traded
cannon fire with the Union Monitor. Naval warfare would never be the same. In a
way this is very fitting because Hampton Roads is synonymous with naval power.
Norfolk has long been home to the U.S. Atlantic Fleet, and Norfolk Naval Base
is the largest in the world. It’s deep harbor and proximity to the ocean has
also made the cities of Hampton Roads major commercial ports, collectively they
are second only to New York among Atlantic ports in total tonnage<a name="15"><a href="#16"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><sup><span style="color: red;">8</span></sup></b></a></a>.
<br />
<br />
In
many ways Hampton Roads reminds me of my hometown of Baltimore: a large urban
area surrounding a deep natural harbor and a culture that embraces this coastal
proximity; although Hampton Roads is closer to the sea – both in the literal and
figurative senses. This proximity to the ocean may have major drawbacks as Hampton
Roads could be <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/built-on-sinking-ground-norfolk-tries-to-hold-back-tide-amid-sea-level-rise/2012/06/17/gJQADUsxjV_story.html">the first urban area in the U.S. to be inundated</a> by rising sea
levels. Norfolk has seen a lot of flooding in recent years, from storm surges,
to extreme high tides, to rain water that can’t drain from the low land. It
doesn’t help that Hampton Roads is built on land that is sinking naturally by
seven inches per century. Leaders of coastal
cities all across the country are keeping a wary eye on Hampton Roads to see
how the region adapts to rising seas.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Solutions</b>
<br />
As
the routine flooding of Venice or the catastrophic Katrina-caused flooding of
New Orleans demonstrate, it’s unlikely that geographic vulnerability will
result in the abandonment of coastal cities. Hampton Roads will stay where it
is, but solutions to hold back rising water will have to be found. These could
include flood walls and levies like in New Orleans or the Netherlands, tidal
gates like in Venice and London, and new powerful pumping stations to keep the
lowest-lying terrain dry. It could also include common sense policies like
avoidance of groundwater depletion (as enacted in Houston for instance),
restrictions on future development in the most vulnerable flood areas, and even
abandonment of some areas that are unlikely to be saved from rising water. And
there are other environmental solutions, like reestablishment of coastal
wetlands that can blunt the effects of high tides and storm surges.
<br />
<br />
The
rub in all of these solutions is that they’re expensive. Estimates for Norfolk
range from many hundreds of million dollars to several billion dollars. For one
location this may not seem excessive, but multiplied by several dozen, and
saving the American urban coastline could be one of the largest public works
projects in history. Fortunately, even the most pessimistic estimates of sea
level rise give cities, states, and the federal government decades to plan for
the right solutions and dedicate needed funding.
<br />
<br />
As
Venice and London solved their flooding challenges, so can American cities. Addressing
natural challenges is never easy but it’s a challenge we must take on. Assuming
the right steps are taken, Norfolk won’t be washed away and neither will the
rest of America’s coastal cities, or for that matter, the many global urban
areas that front the sea.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">1.</span></b></a></a> I
remember just such a project in the late 1980s to save the beach at Ocean City,
Maryland, the long, thin barrier island and major East Coast summer resort on
Maryland’s Atlantic coast. Today the island of Ocean City remains locked in place
where it’s been since development began early last century. Compare that to gradual
westward migration of Assateague Island immediately to the south, a state and
national park where development is prohibited. Today the two islands are visibly
offset with the southern end of Ocean City jutting out into the open ocean.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">2.</span></b></a></a> An
organization that has suffered its <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_panel_on_climate_change#Responses">share of criticism</a> over the last several
years.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">3.</span></b></a></a> And
this is only one example of how changing global temperatures could cause rising
or falling sea levels. When you consider the effects of tides, current, winds,
storms, pressure, sea temperature, precipitation, global weather patterns like
El Nino, it seems like it’s hard to pin down the specific reasons for changes
to sea level or any other earth system. It certainly makes intuitive sense that
rising global temperatures will lead to rising sea levels, but Earth systems
seek equilibrium and changes to one system may not result in the expected
changes to another system.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">4.</span></b></a></a> Or at
least greatly reduced it. The policy changes include eliminating wells that
draw from the underlying aquifer.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">5.</span></b></a></a> A
close friend of mine is working on the mechanical system that will manipulate
the gates.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">6. </span></b></a></a>The lower
Mississippi River is crucial to the economy of New Orleans, and hence the Army
Corps of Engineers has spent the last 100 years building levees along its banks
to keep it flowing on its current course. The river would naturally like to
shift to take a more direct route to the Gulf of Mexico. This shift would have
naturally occurred decades ago at the Atchafalaya River north of Baton Rouge, a
major distributary that already carries 30 percent of the Mississippi’s flow.
Instead, flood control projects have kept the Mississippi where it is and
prevented flood waters from depositing sediment along its shores. The result is
the rising of the river relative to the land, which ultimately has put New
Orleans at a greater risk for flooding.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">7.</span></b></a></a> This
was the original name of the ship, which was sunk early in war, captured and
raised by the Confederacy and renamed the C.S.S. (Confederate States Ship)
Virginia.
<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red;">8.</span></b></a></a>
During just one day on a recent visit I saw no less than a dozen large
freighters, an amphibious assault ship (like a small aircraft carrier used by
the Marines for amphibious assaults), and an Arleigh Burke destroyer plying the waters of Hampton Roads.I also saw (and heard)
six F-18s either flying to or from an offshore aircraft carrier or conducting
exercises.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-5009509104196443702012-06-25T22:10:00.001-04:002012-06-27T11:57:16.427-04:00Reentering the Tunnel of Loveby Conroy
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgahVVI_duWGa2_pLpi-DiwCzYr6GoxN2mKEVipEKCPk451-rNnB464mxYjDmPBeMxNQMuxBa1SYT7mVULG1m-YaX1LnlS2eWoETtDx81pVGgjvVt4dCHRLst0SIasAxVnpmC-DL2dPc6OI/s1600/Tunnel+Of+Love.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgahVVI_duWGa2_pLpi-DiwCzYr6GoxN2mKEVipEKCPk451-rNnB464mxYjDmPBeMxNQMuxBa1SYT7mVULG1m-YaX1LnlS2eWoETtDx81pVGgjvVt4dCHRLst0SIasAxVnpmC-DL2dPc6OI/s1600/Tunnel+Of+Love.JPG" /></a></div>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“There's a crazy mirror showing us both in 5-d / I’m laughing at you,
you're laughing at me / There's a room of shadows that gets so dark brother /
It’s easy for two people to lose each other, in this tunnel of love”
<br />
– Bruce Springsteen, “Tunnel of Love”
</blockquote>
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_springsteen">Bruce Springsteen</a> surely ranks as one of the most successful and
admired musicians of the rock era.<a name=1><a href="#2"><sup><span style="color: red;">1</span></sup></a></a> His career has been a rare combination of
immense popularity and critical adulation, and he’s been doing it for 40 years.
In fact it’s the very scope of his career and the enduring airplay of his
biggest hit songs (not to mention his reputation as a colossus of arena-rock),
that can obscure the fact that Springsteen was capable of startling artistic
turns. It’s been 25 years since one of these turns when he released what has
become an overlooked album, a forgotten masterpiece, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunnel_of_Love_%28album%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel of Love</i></a>.
<br />
<br />
Ask fans or critics to identify Springsteen’s best album and they’re
likely to say <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Born_to_run"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Born to Run</i></a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Born_in_the_U.S.A."><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Born in the U.S.A.</i></a> or even <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_River_%28Bruce_Springsteen_album%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The River</i></a>. Few, I suspect, would choose <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel of Love</i>. Springsteen developed a
pattern of alternating between “big” accessible albums with smaller more
intimate ones. He followed <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Born to Run</i>
(1975) with the darker <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darkness_on_the_Edge_of_Town">Darkness on the Edge of Town</a> </i>(1978); <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The River</i> (1980)
with the down-right bleak <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska_%28album%29">Nebraska</a> </i>(1982).
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFprpqpy31En-Xg_PU68jZL-yRByW2ZWdG8RdkwT89a_fTuyo2WiYCfC6SnKI7HFAoHfxIbqCGtiUSEKMyjkQolYlWSIWxDf5pz7qorFrl0ZyE-XjqxaieEhyphenhyphenEzRn1sEpW_4orFLJtdGF9/s1600/born+in+the+usa.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFprpqpy31En-Xg_PU68jZL-yRByW2ZWdG8RdkwT89a_fTuyo2WiYCfC6SnKI7HFAoHfxIbqCGtiUSEKMyjkQolYlWSIWxDf5pz7qorFrl0ZyE-XjqxaieEhyphenhyphenEzRn1sEpW_4orFLJtdGF9/s1600/born+in+the+usa.JPG" /></a></div>
But Springsteen roared back after that album, becoming a rock god, The Boss, after
releasing the immensely successful album <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Born
in the U.S.A. </i>(1984)<a name=3><a href="#4"><sup><span style="color: red;">2</span></sup></a></a> and enjoying its immensely successful
follow-up tour. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Born in the U.S.A.</i>
was, among other things, an anthemic and exciting album. That’s why it sold so
well. And naturally there was tremendous anticipation for the follow-up. When
he delivered <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel of Love</i> in 1987,
I doubt many fans could have anticipated the sound or subject matter. Rather
than traffic in the same blend of power rock, Springsteen did a 180, turning
inward and stripping his music down, almost entirely removing the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_Street_Band">E Street Band</a>
from the recording sessions. He turned from the social and political to the
personal and introspective. It’s a startling 12 tracks.<a name=5><a href="#6"><sup><span style="color: red;">3</span></sup></a></a>
<br />
<br />
Above and beyond anything else, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel of Love</i> is an album about love
and doubt and <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2011/05/hope-and-disappointment.html">marriage and disappointment</a>. Or what I like to term a divorce
album. Befitting its subject matter, the music is mostly subdued and lyrics dwell
on failed marriage and love. While this may seem like a recipe for dour
listening, Springsteen’s evocative lyrics paint stark pictures and his music
while stripped down remains haunting. In many ways the album is a cousin to U2’s
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achtung_Baby"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Achtung Baby</i></a>, which is also a divorce
album, and no less compelling for it.<br />
<br />
I think you have to be a little careful when considering autobiography
in an artist’s work, but in the case of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel
of Love</i>, Springsteen’s personal life may well have inspired his art. He
married actress Julianne Phillips in 1985 during the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Born in the U.S.A.</i> tour. A newly married man in his mid-30s, a
mature Springsteen seemed to find disappointment instead of happiness. And it’s
hard not to connect an album full of tracks about failed love with the
experience of his recent marriage. Consider that it was during the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunnel_of_Love_Express_Tour"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel of Love</i> tour</a> <a name=7><a href="#8"><sup><span style="color: red;">4</span></sup></a></a> that he separated from
Phillips and began his relationship with E Street Band back-up singer Patti Scialfa.<a name=9><a href="#10"><sup><span style="color: red;">5</span></sup></a></a>
<br />
<br />
This personal history is worth remembering when listening to the album.
Here’s a track-by-track review:
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVZVzrrvfOo">“Ain’t Got You”</a> sets the albums tone with Springsteen’s arrhythmic,
country-twinged vocals backed by a spare guitar. The lyrics focus on a
musician, indistinguishable from Springsteen, awash in wealth, luck, and
luxury, but lacking love. The opening verse says it all:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“I got a fortune of heaven in diamonds and gold / I got all the bonds
baby that the bank could hold / I got houses 'cross the country honey end to
end / And everybody buddy wants to be my friend / Well I got all the riches
honey any man every knew / But the only thing I ain't got honey I ain't got you.”</blockquote>
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Tougher Than the Rest and All
That Heaven Will Allow</b>
<br />
The song is clever and a bit funny, and its longing leads directly to
the second—and standout—track, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_91hNV6vuBY">“Tougher Than the Rest.”</a> A slow ballad
backed by an insistent drum-bass line and a mild synthesizer drone (this is
still a mid-80s album after all) the lyrics show hope for true love: “Well if
you’re looking for love / Honey I’m tougher than the rest.” But a hope full of
compromise:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Well ’round here baby / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">I learned
you get what you can get</b> / So if you’re rough enough for love / Honey I’m
tougher than the rest,” and “Well it ain’t no secret / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">I’ve been around a time or two</b> / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Well I don’t know baby maybe
you’ve been around too</b> / Well there’s another dance / All you gotta do is say yes.”</blockquote>
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdJIpyiupJo">“All That Heaven Will Allow”</a> carries on much in the same musical and
lyrical vein, but the compromise isn’t with love, but with circumstance. This
is the last time on the album that belief in love triumphs over all: “Rain and
storm and dark skies / Well now they don’t mean a thing / If you got a girl
that loves you / And who wants to wear your ring.”
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Spare Parts, Cautious Man, and
Walk Like a Man</b>
<br />
The albums falls from its tenuous hope on the next three tracks. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fProwTHzKQ">“Spare Parts,”</a> a country-rocker that tells the story of a man who runs out on his
pregnant fiancé. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWXepwQ7qqo">“Cautious Man,”</a> the album’s sparest track, is a somber ballad
of a loner who battles his demons and his desire to walk away from his wife.
Then there is <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r4KjCuy94g">“Walk Like a Man,”</a> another slow ballad, that sounds like a
message to Springsteen’s father conveys the sentimentality and hope attached to
marriage:
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“I remember ma draggin’ me and my sister up the street to the church / Whenever
she heard those wedding bells / Well would they ever look so happy again / The
handsome groom and his bride / As they stepped into that long black limousine /
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">For their mystery ride</b>.”
</blockquote>
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Tunnel of Love</b>
<br />
Having firmly established a grim and soul-addled mood, Springsteen
speeds up the music with one of the album’s best tracks, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw2OnNoy5JQ">“Tunnel of Love.”</a> The
title track is awash in synthesizer (it’s easily the most musically robust
track) and jangling guitar. It also introduces the albums central metaphor,
comparing love and relationships to a funhouse ride, it’s worth quoting at
length:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Fat man sitting on a little stool / Takes the money from my hand while
his eyes take a walk all over you / Hands me the ticket smiles and whispers
good luck / Cuddle up angel cuddle up my little dove / Well ride down baby into
this tunnel of love/
<br />
<br />
I can feel the soft silk of your blouse / And them soft thrills in our little
fun house / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Then the lights go out and
it's just the three of us</b> / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">You me
and all that stuff were so scared of</b> / Gotta ride down baby into this
tunnel of love/
<br />
<br />
There's a crazy mirror showing us both in 5-d / I’m laughing at you you're
laughing at me / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">There's a room of shadows
that gets so dark brother</b> / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">It’s
easy for two people to lose each other in this tunnel of love</b>/
<br />
<br />
It ought to be easy ought to be simple enough / Man meets woman and they fall
in love / But the house is haunted and the ride gets rough / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">And you’ve got to learn to live with what
you can't rise above</b> if you want to ride on down in through this tunnel of
love.”</blockquote>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Two Faces and Brilliant Disguise</b>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK21PlPqIeGvIHmrcS-61Da9fOALz_MW240P8lQrqSfCqNdz8XLZrp8sQRabMbwVu9jL9OfdD-Hgy4Oc6TnnHwRorjISN5H8ujgVV3hpaOoDkKdMRUM4SmNplMQ5aio9QVkdwuMDxiAqAO/s1600/brilliant+disguise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK21PlPqIeGvIHmrcS-61Da9fOALz_MW240P8lQrqSfCqNdz8XLZrp8sQRabMbwVu9jL9OfdD-Hgy4Oc6TnnHwRorjISN5H8ujgVV3hpaOoDkKdMRUM4SmNplMQ5aio9QVkdwuMDxiAqAO/s320/brilliant+disguise.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Springsteen in the "Brilliant Disguise" video</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The pace slows again the music fades back for <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG4JSYOlruc">“Two Faces,”</a> a ballad
about a man at odds with himself, deeply conflicted about his love, his
marriage, and his motives. These lyrics and themes lead the way to the album’s
best track, and one of Springsteen’s best ever songs, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idnJnjV_8rg">“Brilliant Disguise.”</a> It
is a brutal examination of a disintegrating marriage, and its gorgeous melody,
acoustic guitar, and synthesizer is a perfect complement to the lyrics. Again,
quoting at length:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“I hold you in my arms as the band plays / What are those words
whispered baby just as you turn away / I saw you last night out on the edge of
town / I wanna read your mind and know just what I’ve got in this new thing I’ve
found / So tell me what I see when I look in your eyes / Is that you baby or
just a brilliant disguise/
<br />
<br />
I heard somebody call your name from underneath our willow / I saw something
tucked in shame underneath your pillow / Well I’ve tried so hard baby but I
just can't see / What a woman like you is doing with me / So tell me who I see
when I look in your eyes / Is that you baby or just a brilliant disguise/
<br />
<br />
Now look at me baby struggling to do everything right / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">And then it all falls apart when out go the lights</b> / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">I’m just a lonely pilgrim I walk this world
in wealth</b> / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">I want to know if it's
you I don't trust cause I damn sure don't trust myself</b> /
<br />
<br />
Now you play the loving woman I'll play the faithful man / But just don't look
too close into the palm of my hand / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">We
stood at the alter the gypsy swore our future was right</b> / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">But come the wee wee hours maybe baby the
gypsy lied</b> / So when you look at me you better look hard and look twice / Is
that me baby or just a brilliant disguise/
<br />
<br />
Tonight our bed is cold / I’m lost in the darkness of our love / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">God have mercy on the man</b> / <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Who doubts what he's sure of</b>.”</blockquote>
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">One Step Up, When You’re Alone,
and Valentine’s Day</b>
<br />
The album continues with another stand-out track, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkFQHScyti0">“One Step Up,”</a> which features
another gorgeous melody and acoustic guitar, and conveys the end of an
unfixable relationship:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“It’s the same thing night on night / Who’s wrong baby who’s right / Another
fight and I slam the door on / Another battle in our dirty little war / When I
look at myself I don’t see / The man I wanted to be / Somewhere along the line I slipped off
track / I’m caught movin’ one step up and two steps back.”</blockquote>
The album’s penultimate track is <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPA46pwdqbs">“When You’re Alone,”</a> a spare acoustic ballad
of the desire for loneliness over a long-since-soured relationship. And the
closer is <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhFrj092j3o">“Valentine’s Day,”</a> a final slow ballad that contemplates the
complications of love and commitment and ultimately settles for an imperfect
union: “So hold me close honey, say you're forever mine / And tell me you'll be
my lonely valentine / Lonely valentine.”
<br />
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel of Love</i> reminds me of
some other pieces of contemporary art: the films <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Days_of_heaven"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Days of Heaven</i></a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Valentine_%28film%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Blue Valentine</i></a>, the aforementioned <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Achtung
Baby</i> and Jason Isbell’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Isbell_and_The_400_Unit">self-title first album</a>, parts of the Anthony
Burgess’ novel <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_Like_the_Sun"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Nothing Like the Sun</i></a>, and
the “Letters from Zedelghem” section of David Mitchell’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_Atlas_%28novel%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Cloud Atlas</i></a>. It’s not optimistic, in many ways barely hopeful, but it
is human, and a deep listen.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Critical Accolades</b>
<br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tunnel of Love</i> certainly
doesn’t enjoy the lasting prominence of several other Springsteen albums, but
it has gathered critical recognition, earning glowing praise from critics, both
at the time of its release and as the years passed. Rolling Stone magazine counted
the album among the best of the 1980s and indeed all time. A reputation well
earned and hopefully one that will only grow stronger.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #ff0000;">1.</span></b></a></a> Certainly by this writer.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #ff0000;">2.</span></b></a></a> An album that featured the hit title track, “Dancing in the Dark”, “Glory Days”, “I’m on Fire”, “My Hometown”, and “No Surrender,” to name only the tracks that are still played with regularity on rock radio.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #ff0000;">3.</span></b></a></a> If often stark.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #ff0000;">4.</span></b></a></a> Officially named the Tunnel of Love Express Tour, it featured a highly stylized routine, which was far different than Springsteen’s early (and later) tours that featured sprawling physical sets. A bit of this stylized performance can be seen in the official music video for “Tougher Than the Rest.”
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #ff0000;">5.</span></b></a></a> A relationship that resulted in his second, much longer, and successful marriage (1991-present), which produced three children.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-79543225752899911112012-06-14T20:58:00.000-04:002012-06-14T20:58:45.021-04:00Prometheus and the Alien Saga: Revisitedby Conroy
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNPr64PCKG-6DUBZZy_-7JHqvdLXp4tmiixDu_KxMKHfcAbci3AP2MJdAJs9bai2yQmlhrG9Swc2wUNBFrfHwpU-4owY5gaTe8iG5FHN4uLPwu_3W2hhBT-QZkB4kpW3uG5qrmnbXfmu5x/s1600/Prometheus+Logo-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNPr64PCKG-6DUBZZy_-7JHqvdLXp4tmiixDu_KxMKHfcAbci3AP2MJdAJs9bai2yQmlhrG9Swc2wUNBFrfHwpU-4owY5gaTe8iG5FHN4uLPwu_3W2hhBT-QZkB4kpW3uG5qrmnbXfmu5x/s320/Prometheus+Logo-2.jpg" width="224" /></a></div>
A few months ago <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/03/prometheus-and-alien-saga.html">I posted on the then upcoming film</a> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> and how it may or may not
relate to the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> movie franchise.
While I was excited to see a film where director Ridley Scott went back to the “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> universe”, I was nervous that
Prometheus might fail to live up to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_%28film%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i></a>
or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliens_%28film%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aliens</i></a> or even undermine some of
the mystery that was crucial to the first film. Now having actually seen <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> and having thought about it
for a few days, I can discuss what the film does and doesn’t accomplish.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">[SPOILER ALERT…CRITICAL DETAILS ABOUT PROMETHEUS FOLLOW]</i></b>
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> and the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>
Universe</b>
<br />
The story of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> “exists”,
without question, within the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>
universe <a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[1]</span></b></a></a>.
For instance, in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> a science
mission travels far across space to a moon (LV-223) in search of the “Engineers”
a humanoid species apparently worshipped several millennia ago by primitive
cultures all over Earth. The Engineers turn out to be the Space Jockey species
glimpsed aboard the derelict spacecraft in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>.
And the spacecraft of the Engineers is of the same design as the Space Jockey
ship seen in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>. The humans are
soon confronted with a host of creatures that share characteristics with the
iconic alien, including an unremitting hostility, caustic blood, and a
terrifying lifecycle. There is even a xenomorph-like <a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[2]</span></b></a></a> creature “born” at the end
of the film. One of the more interesting aspects of the <i>Alien</i> movies was the
existence of androids and their relationship to humans. <i>Prometheus</i> continues
this, and indeed one of its most interesting characters, David portrayed
excellently by Michael Fassbender, is an android whose nuanced but
company-first behavior hints strongly of the android Ash in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>. And while I'm on characters, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> continues the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> franchise’s tradition of strong
female leads, this time with Noomi Rapace playing Elizabeth Shaw as a scientist
turned survivor.
<br />
<br />
Beyond these direct connections between <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> and the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>
movies, there are the stylistic and thematic similarities. Like all Ridley
Scott movies <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> is wonderfully
rendered, but it maintains the dark tones and sharp division between dirty
grays, browns, and blacks, and crisp almost sterile whites that are such
hallmarks of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> movies. This
isn’t to say that there isn’t ample color in the movie (there certainly is,
especially inside of the ship Prometheus) but the movie more or less adheres to
the color palette established by Scott in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>.
Perhaps the most incongruous thing is that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i>
in 2012 includes a vision of late-21<sup>st</sup>-century technology
(holographic survey models, advanced smart-phone/iPad like computers, robotic
surgical capsules, etc.) that were entirely (and intentionally) absent from <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> in 1979, a story which ostensibly
takes place long after the events in the later film <a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[3]</span></b></a></a>.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUFO7n1abOyuYXMz0tDB9GWYneEG0thyphenhyphent-hHWtI2_m6vD0SVVIOeGpg8nSEiHOcy1WSO8xYx0YHd50KqhSGMoZFAL7jZGxQEB5nUC0r52ZoyRfMistHxuV81ah-yeLy5B2vtw-IFpr-82w/s1600/prometheus+david.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUFO7n1abOyuYXMz0tDB9GWYneEG0thyphenhyphent-hHWtI2_m6vD0SVVIOeGpg8nSEiHOcy1WSO8xYx0YHd50KqhSGMoZFAL7jZGxQEB5nUC0r52ZoyRfMistHxuV81ah-yeLy5B2vtw-IFpr-82w/s320/prometheus+david.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">David, the complicated android</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Many of<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> Prometheus’s</i> themes align
with <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aliens</i>. In general, the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>
universe is a hostile place. Individuals like Ripley and the other major
characters have few or no friends, love is distant or hidden, trust is
fleeting, and ultimately, survival becomes the entire focus of Ripley and those
around her. These themes, along with others, are all front and center in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i>. In the purest sense of the
word Prometheus isn’t a prequel to Alien, the end of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> does not lead to the beginning of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> or even demand that the story ultimately get there. But it is
a movie that takes place in the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>
universe sometime before the events of the first film.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Unanswered Questions</b>
<br />
<i>Prometheus</i> is a thoughtful film in that is raises questions about the
creation of man in an original way. The film suggests and then later seems to
confirm that humans were created not in the image of God (at least not
directly) but in the image of the Engineers, an advanced extraterrestrial species.
Following clues unearthed in archeological finds all over Earth, a team of
scientists determines that the Engineers came from a distant star system
invisible to early man, and interprets this as a message from the Engineers to
find them when man is ready <a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[4]</span></b></a></a>. A scientific expedition funded and
directed by the Weyland corporation <a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[5]</span></b></a></a> travels to the star system in the hopes of
finding the Engineers and gaining answers to some of the eternal questions that
have haunted man throughout history. Where did we come from? Who made us? Where
are we going?
<br />
<br />
The expedition arrives at moon LV-223 only, seemingly, to find a long
abandoned station with no living Engineers left. However, like the eggs in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>, things inside the station are in
fact dormant, not dead. As events unfold it becomes clear that the station isn’t
a place to find answers but a place entirely toxic – hostile, to hammer home a
theme of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> universe – to
humans. And the Engineers aren’t interested in teaching man but seem to have been
planning for man’s eradication. The original questions remain unanswered and many
more arise. Why are the Engineers ready to eliminate the human species? Where
are they really from? What went wrong at this “dead” station?
<br />
<br />
Readers of this blog will know that I like <a href="http://www.conroyandtheman.blogspot.com/2012/01/god-particle.html">this type of uncertainty and unknowing</a>. The more I study the universe the weirder and more indifferent to
humanity it seems <a name="11"><a href="#12"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[6]</span></b></a></a>. Questions of man’s origin, be it God or
nature or the product of alien Engineers, should be left obscured in art so
they can better reflect the obscurity of reality. <a href="http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/prometheus_2012/">Several reviewers</a> have criticized
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> for leaving too many
unanswered questions, a point-of-view that I fundamentally disagree with.
Humans have learned so much in the last several thousand years, but there is
vastly more that we don’t know. I appreciate a movie like <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> that asks a lot of big questions and shows us an
original idea but that doesn’t pretend to have an insight on all the secrets of
the universe. <br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Criticisms</b>
<br />
In addition to unanswered question, critics have suggested that the
plot of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> is predictable. I
don’t think that’s true. Rather than critiquing the plot, a better question to
ask is whether the characters stay true to their motivations and behave like
human beings. And in this movie they do. But shunting these criticisms aside
doesn’t mean the movie is flawless.
<br />
<br />
So, I will levy a couple of criticisms at the movie. First near the end
of the film there are a couple of action sequences that while spectacular are,
for lack of a better description, too big. In the movie's most expansive sequence two spacecraft collide and then fall to
ground in an over extended crash. You’ve seen these types of scenes in
countless big budget action and science fiction movies over the last decade plus.
At a film’s climax too much action happens too quickly and on too large a
scale. Characters end up getting dwarfed in the moment when <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">they</i> should be the focus of the movie’s attention.
The most riveting action sequences of all time, think of the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OmkmeOMC6Q">assault on Omaha Beach</a>
that opened <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Saving Private Ryan</i> or
even the alien battle sequences in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aliens</i>,
stay close to human reality. When giant spaceships are exploding and crashing
to ground a viewer can’t feel much because what’s being viewed can’t be related
to any past experience or intuitive reality. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aliens</i> avoided
any moments like this and Scott probably could have kept them out of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i>. I’m keen on noting that an
effective action sequence should thrill you and an effective horror scene
should scare you. If at a moment of high stress you can ask the question, “If I
were the character what would I do now?,” and your answer is just what the
character is doing, the movie has succeeded. These too big action sequences don’t
even let you ask that question.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVxLJu9akhMZf4fqLbWSqafxsySWr2_a-3c38wp-3gC3GNzJ0P1W9rx2i6hQ4QTZnbY6APOetHHWycdhUcJgFkV36E6dpiyv7ijuNr6MoEZUnKrfmJFOYYNCl2GNdxW4VubsX4VIFv4jRG/s1600/prometheus+shaw.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVxLJu9akhMZf4fqLbWSqafxsySWr2_a-3c38wp-3gC3GNzJ0P1W9rx2i6hQ4QTZnbY6APOetHHWycdhUcJgFkV36E6dpiyv7ijuNr6MoEZUnKrfmJFOYYNCl2GNdxW4VubsX4VIFv4jRG/s320/prometheus+shaw.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Shaw soon after her emergency "cesarean"</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
My other criticism relates to another aspect that has seeped into 21<sup>st</sup>
century movies and television, what I’ll term the invincible human. An example
is when a movie or TV character is shot but somehow quickly recovers to fight
bad guys and soon thereafter shows no ill effects from a bullet mutilating part
of their body. This happens to Shaw in <i>Prometheus</i>. In the movie’s most intense
and gut-churning scene <a name="13"><a href="#14"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[7]</span></b></a></a> she undergoes a radical cesarean section.
Literally only minutes later she's able to run and jump and avoid falling
spacecraft; I don’t think so.
<br />
<br />
These elements all occur in the third act of the movie and ultimately keep
it from being a science fiction masterpiece along the lines of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> or Scott’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blade_runner"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Blade Runner</i></a> or that similar space-based, big-question movie <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001:_A_Space_Odyssey_%28film%29"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">2001: A Space Odyssey</i></a>.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A Sequel?</b>
<br />
There is already <a href="http://m.mtv.com/news/article.rbml?id=1687203&weburl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mtv.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F1687203%2Fprometheus-sequel.jhtml&alt=http%3A%2F%2Fm.mtv.com%2Fnews%2Findex.rbml&cid=300">a lot of speculation</a> about the chances of a sequel.
Neither Ridley Scott nor writer Damon Lindelof have committed on way or another
except to note that a sequel to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i>
would not dovetail into <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>. As the
movie is constructed it could stand alone or be the first in a series. Although
if a sequel follows the survivors of this movie (like <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aliens</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien 3</i> did),
it would have to be a very different movie. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i>
has presented some interesting questions and ideas, a sequel could explore these
further.
<br />
<br />
It’s also very speculative to assume that Scott would direct a sequel
to one of his own films <a name="15"><a href="#16"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[8]</span></b></a></a>, something he’s never done over his long
career. So far (as of mid-June) the movie has grossed more than $150 million
worldwide. If it continues to make money, the executives at Fox Studios may
push for a follow-up. As movie viewers we can only hope that a sequel would
bring on a creative team to match this original <a name="17"><a href="#18"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[9]</span></b></a></a>.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[1]</span></b></a></a>
And in this context that not only means the timeline or major events that occurred
in the four previous Alien movies (Alien vs. Predator movies excluded), but
also the dark visual style and tone of the earlier films.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[2]</span></b></a></a>
This was a term introduced in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aliens</i>
for the alien monster.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[3]</span></b></a></a>
My dad often pointed out to me – starting at least 20 years ago – that the one
aspect of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> that dated very fast
was its depiction of computers and ship controls and terminals. Of course I was
and am willing to give this a pass, but there’s no denying that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i>’s vision of future tools and
computers is more convincing and more interesting than that of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>. Scott may have been going for a “truckers
in space” dirty version of space travel in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i>,
but there’s no getting around the fact the space travel is a costly, high-tech
endeavor. In this regard Prometheus is a more realistic ship than the Nostromo.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[4]</span></b></a></a>
As I mentioned in my first post on this movie, I hate these aliens visiting
early man plot lines, but Scott handles it well in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i> by suggesting not that early man was taught by
extraterrestrials, but rather that man was created by them. This is an original
idea and Scott deserves credit for enlivening (or avoiding) what is a tired concept.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[5]</span></b></a></a>
Is it possible that the Weyland Corporation, which at some point becomes the
Weyland-Yutani Corporation, is one of the largest and most nefarious
corporations ever depicted on film? Now over four <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> movies, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Prometheus</i>,
and even the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien vs. Predator</i>
films, we have seen this company funding massive science missions, as a major
off-Earth mining operation, terra-forming far away moons, exploring/exploiting
ancient discoveries on Earth, all the while seeking desperately to capture the
hostile alien for part of its “bio-weapons division”. Not to mention its role
in say, artificial intelligence, long-range space travel, “hypersleep”,
artificial gravity, and the many other as-yet-to-be-developed technologies presented
in the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Alien</i> universe. An interesting
movie or book could probably be dedicated just to this fictional company.
<br />
<br />
<a name="12"><a href="#11"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[6]</span></b></a></a>
Consider for instance that physicists have no proven explanation (or even
satisfying theories) for the dark energy and dark matter that make up 96% of
the “stuff” in our universe.
<br />
<br />
<a name="14"><a href="#13"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[7]</span></b></a></a>
No pun intended.
<br />
<br />
<a name="16"><a href="#15"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[8]</span></b></a></a>
He did direct the wretched <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hannibal</i>,
the very poor sequel to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Silence of the
Lambs</i>.
<br />
<br />
<a name="18"><a href="#17"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[9]</span></b></a></a>
Like what happened with <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Aliens</i>.Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-84788749523806313992012-06-07T20:35:00.003-04:002012-06-07T20:36:27.481-04:00The Ultimate Mapby Conroy
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ZsD5cCh8vaBNSp5oH6XYCrme_Eu5dGJZ_DbyCTI-IPNDgbGVY0KWKro-B3KYiAqrfezRyFiCxce4JjX7Wgi9EY99ikvKUhyUn__MEtFkdj1noRUl8kwPhV4RAewKEjgYq6ZXiCAG5s5L/s1600/New+York+City+Google+Map.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7ZsD5cCh8vaBNSp5oH6XYCrme_Eu5dGJZ_DbyCTI-IPNDgbGVY0KWKro-B3KYiAqrfezRyFiCxce4JjX7Wgi9EY99ikvKUhyUn__MEtFkdj1noRUl8kwPhV4RAewKEjgYq6ZXiCAG5s5L/s320/New+York+City+Google+Map.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
One of the first books my parents gave to me as a child was an atlas, a
gift that I credit with kindling my life-long fascination with world geography.
I loved the bright color maps of countries and regions I hadn’t even heard the
names of before. I studied the accompanying photographs, charts, and statistics
with great intensity. After that first atlas I couldn’t get enough,
wallpapering my bedroom with the maps that came in National Geographic
magazines, getting new and bigger atlases <a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[1]</span></b></a></a>, and memorizing lists of the largest
islands, longest rivers, most populous cities, etc. I think this all appealed
to me because atlases and maps provide one way to imagine and relate to the
rest of the world. Maybe it was this early childhood exposure, but for me the
world is organized in my head as one big map, and everything else, cultures,
languages, histories, places, current events, and even some memories, are just
layers to be accessed from this underlying picture. Is this the way you think?
<br />
<br />
I’ve explained geography to others as having two fundamental
components: (1) the physical reality of our world, like the oceans, great rivers,
and high mountain ranges, and (2) the relationship of one place to another,
like how Great Britain is separated from mainland Europe by the narrow English
Channel. These fundamental components are, well, fundamentally important to the
long development of human civilization and the common facts of everyday
experience. San Francisco has its remarkably consistent temperatures because of
its <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_francisco#Geography">location on a peninsula</a> adjacent to the Northern Pacific and the cool
California Current that flows along America’s west coast. Great Britain avoided
invasion in World War II because Hitler’s war machine <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion#Chances_of_success">lacked the naval craft</a> to
cross the 20-mile wide Straight of Dover. India and China border one another
but their civilizations have little in common because they’re physically
separated by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himalayas">highest mountain range on Earth</a>. Geography is central to these
facts. The story of history and the interactions of civilization are
substantially informed by the geographical relations of people and places;
that’s what the term geopolitics means. And the facts of everyday life, the
language you speak, the weather you experience, the types of outdoor activities
you participate in are inextricably linked to geography.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhge64b8C1MCXe6gyQ-ClDoHJgEbWAB6Ik_6XH0Jd28pnnqczGRWodGBLv4ObwKZjjX9Ec28-TFFJj1XTzw0ElXQB3P9poOxNBBHFdBc-8vA78DbtPkpUqeNY8f6sVwwhN7JWWGn8hp8UR/s1600/underground-map.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhge64b8C1MCXe6gyQ-ClDoHJgEbWAB6Ik_6XH0Jd28pnnqczGRWodGBLv4ObwKZjjX9Ec28-TFFJj1XTzw0ElXQB3P9poOxNBBHFdBc-8vA78DbtPkpUqeNY8f6sVwwhN7JWWGn8hp8UR/s320/underground-map.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The wonderfully stylized London Underground map</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Anyway, for me, it’s the results of geography, the histories and
cultures and climates and sights, which make maps, our most basic visualization
of geography, so endlessly interesting. In
fact, my girlfriend finds it amusing that even now whenever I’m confronted with
a map I can’t resist studying it with terrific focus. And maps are more than
functional tools, they can also be art. A few years ago the Walter’s Art Museum
in Baltimore had a <a href="http://thewalters.org/exhibitions/maps/">wonderful exhibit on maps</a>. It included ancient tapestries of
the then known world to the modern stylized depiction of the London Underground
system. And it’s hard to not appreciate the clarity and simple beauty of the
London Underground system map or the wonderful detail and color of the (very
best, in my opinion) road maps provided by companies like ADC <a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[2]</span></b></a></a>.
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9gtrl1da_M866A5DAAsdAkmz5qkTuiySNTJCvqYvt9OiRSVWbC8mox52lgMcW0DfoBhqAsGKLYShwvS5yUL9znaK5BEF6qjU_jU7JQx1s2F3kJprk5-HE8XLi8GiZT81tvEn_620Dwzb1/s1600/washingtonDCMap+-+ADC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9gtrl1da_M866A5DAAsdAkmz5qkTuiySNTJCvqYvt9OiRSVWbC8mox52lgMcW0DfoBhqAsGKLYShwvS5yUL9znaK5BEF6qjU_jU7JQx1s2F3kJprk5-HE8XLi8GiZT81tvEn_620Dwzb1/s320/washingtonDCMap+-+ADC.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An ADC road map of Washington, D.C.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>A Mapping Revolution</b>
<br />
There’s only one drawback to traditional maps – they’re static. Any
given map is set at one scale and depicts just one area (even if it’s the whole
world). You need an entire book (an atlas) to show maps of different locations,
details, and data, and that still doesn’t allow for reader configuration of the
format or content. But the internet, smart phones, and the massive
proliferation of information is changing all that, and more interestingly,
<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/06/tech/web/google-maps-update/index.html?hpt=hp_t2">proposed enhancements from Google</a> and Apple might take maps to their fullest
expression.
<br />
<br />
Starting in the 1990s Mapquest and other sites began to offer digital
maps, usually for road directions. I didn’t care for these maps because you
could only see an area the size of your computer monitor and the maps
themselves were rather dull to view. But when <a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en">Google Maps</a> came out in the early
2000s the aesthetics began to improve and over time they have added important
enhancement like an ability to scroll across the entire globe, zoom in an out
for greater or less detail, and new layers providing satellite imagery and terrain.
<br />
<br />
Google’s companion <a href="http://www.google.com/earth/index.html">Google Earth</a> application added the ability to change
perspective and included 3-D buildings in major cities. Later Google added <a href="http://maps.google.com/help/maps/streetview/">Street View</a> shots taken from cars mounted with cameras providing 360 degree views that
let you actually see – not imagine – what a place looks like. This is a massive
shift, converting a map to a far more sensory and immediate experience. Now
it’s possible to view, say, the streets of Rome without ever having traveled
there. Certainly this is no substitute for actually being there in person, but it does
bring views of places all over the world right onto your computer screen.
<br />
<br />
Other functions allow you to toggle on features like up-to-date traffic
information, user photos, labels, and links to Wikipedia articles. And this
doesn’t even touch on the powerful linking of maps with GPS, which shows you
just where you are and can direct you to just where you’re going, anyplace and
anytime. Now Google has announced that they plan to add even more functionality
to their maps, including more 3-D buildings and street view shots taken by
pedestrians of places where cars can’t go, allowing a user to view cities as if
they were in a helicopter, or see nature along hiking trails from thousands of
miles away.
<br />
<br />
These changes have been added incrementally over the last decade so you
might not realize just how incredible they really are. No longer are maps 2-D
static views limited to a specified area and providing limited information.
Google Maps, and probably Apple’s soon to be released map application, provide
users a map or satellite photo of any place on the globe, street-level views
along a growing network of roads and soon along non-road areas of interest,
links to encyclopedia articl<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7912353683441062193" name="_GoBack"></a>es, and access to real-time
information like traffic conditions or the proximity of coffee shops. And you
can do it all from you mobile phone. Enhanced views, more information, and
real-time data; that is a mapping revolution.
<br />
<br />
I wrote above that in my mind I view the world as a large map with much
of my knowledge and experience layered onto the underlying structure. Aren’t
these new and improving interactive digital maps getting closer and closer to
this mental image? The more functionality that is added, the more information
is linked, the closer we get to a version of a map that I could have only
dreamed of as a child.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Maps as Art</b>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCi4dFSgDc0_Q6RXeTY5tv437dBRTspyxhHnvYmF3qUhUySLNHxAIGvG69Xgmzwx7AN4PJB6vEdmCLsiwYi0g748MwV8CltAN7bZ2Q2nbMKBRTJ8H1lyPGd6WjTZKJeMy73SD-kBrVYenZ/s1600/ancient+world+map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCi4dFSgDc0_Q6RXeTY5tv437dBRTspyxhHnvYmF3qUhUySLNHxAIGvG69Xgmzwx7AN4PJB6vEdmCLsiwYi0g748MwV8CltAN7bZ2Q2nbMKBRTJ8H1lyPGd6WjTZKJeMy73SD-kBrVYenZ/s320/ancient+world+map.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
If there is one area where static maps still beat their digital cousins
is in presentation. Static maps, done well, are far more visually appealing
than Google Maps or any other product available on the internet. There will be
no museum exhibits showcasing digital maps (at least not in their current form).
And there is an inherent limitation to maps that are restricted to showing only
an area the size of a computer monitor or the even more restrictive smart phone
screen. I have little doubt that Google and Apple will continue to improve the
visual presentation of their map programs, but who can say if they’ll ever be
as good as a printed version. I still have a large map of the United States
hanging on my home office wall and I still find myself studying it from time to
time. Next to my office desk are several atlases and I do occasionally pick
them up and flip through their pages. But it’s to the computer I mainly turn for
maps now. The functionality of digital maps is just too useful. Hopefully one
day the style will match the substance, and then we might really have the
ultimate map.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[1]</span></b></a></a>
Including an old one my uncle had from the late 50s that included a lot of
post-World War II/early Cold War names and notations and anachronisms like
Japan regaining full sovereignty after the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco or South
Africa still ruling Namibia (or Southwest Africa as labeled).
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[2]</span></b></a></a>
Whose motto is “The Map People.”Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7912353683441062193.post-9633185320636824522012-05-23T21:11:00.001-04:002012-05-23T21:11:55.753-04:00Hurricane Guessworkby Conroy
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWiLYpuYTg2NHjAfDmzCGIJ2aVZxBCzQNdtsygFMIxcyXPS-SNT_0uOAD_IbVIRjQhOLfS-E-yFo74KbF0ElApHxiqGrJTuQxGX_oDlyh-IKS8GQfSI4CpGH-depHWe24Y3oKZKRbd1N1y/s1600/hurricane-from-space-satellite.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWiLYpuYTg2NHjAfDmzCGIJ2aVZxBCzQNdtsygFMIxcyXPS-SNT_0uOAD_IbVIRjQhOLfS-E-yFo74KbF0ElApHxiqGrJTuQxGX_oDlyh-IKS8GQfSI4CpGH-depHWe24Y3oKZKRbd1N1y/s320/hurricane-from-space-satellite.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
This past week <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/with-tropical-storm-alberto-lurking-volvo-ocean-race-heads-for-europe/2012/05/20/gIQAICprdU_story.html">tropical storm Alberto churned</a> off the coast of Georgia
and the Carolinas, ushering in an early start to the Atlantic <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes">hurricane</a> season <a name="1"><a href="#2"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[1]</span></b></a></a>.
For residents along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, the hurricane season is a
period of low-grade angst. There’s a relatively remote chance that coastal
areas will be hammered by a truly devastating storm, but it happens. Since 1950
there have occurred, on average, 11 named storms <a name="3"><a href="#4"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[2]</span></b></a></a>, 6 hurricanes <a name="5"><a href="#6"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[3]</span></b></a></a>,
and 3 major hurricanes (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale">Category 3</a> or higher <a name="7"><a href="#8"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[4]</span></b></a></a>), per year. A fraction of
these, one or two hurricanes each year on average, will hit the U.S. mainland.
And rarely, maybe once or twice a decade, a major hurricane makes landfall with catastrophic results, as witnessed
by the deaths and damage caused by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille">Camille</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo">Hugo</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_andrew">Andrew</a>, and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huricane_Katrina">Katrina</a>, to name
only the most prominent.
<br />
<br />
Recognizing the danger of hurricanes, it’s without question important
to identify and follow every tropical depression as it forms, predict its storm
track, warn people living in potentially affected areas as far in advance as
possible, and prepare for emergency response as warranted. The news media and various
local, state, and federal public agencies do the first three very well. Sadly,
as vividly demonstrated by Katrina, emergency response can sometimes be hindered
by bureaucratic obstacles and lack of initiative.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Hurricane Forecasting</b>
<br />
The interest in hurricanes also leads to far more dubious types of
planning and forecasting, namely the annual Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane
Forecast. The most prominent of these is published as part of the <a href="http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/index.php?date=apr12&search=Submit+Query">Tropical Meteorology Project</a> of Colorado State University <a name="9"><a href="#10"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[5]</span></b></a></a>, which was previously led by Professor
William Gray and is now led by Professor Philip Klotzbach.
<br />
<br />
Gray and Klotzbach will explain that they use Atlantic and Pacific water
temperatures, global weather patterns like El Nino and La Nina, and other
climate factors to predict hurricane activity and probabilities for strikes in
the Caribbean and North America. For example, this year’s forecast (from April)
predicts a relatively quiet season with a total of ten named storms (tropical
storms or hurricanes), four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. In addition, it places the probability of a
hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast at 42%.
<br />
<br />
Call me a skeptic, but I doubt the ability of anyone to accurately
predict the number and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes, let alone the location
of where they might develop and track, for any given season. Meteorologists can’t
predict the weather for any one location with much accuracy even a week in
advance. How can they predict the development of major weather systems over
huge expanses of the equatorial and North Atlantic many months ahead of time (the
Atlantic hurricane season usually peaks in early- to mid-September)? Add to that
the fact that the dynamics of hurricane (or any tropical cyclone) formation are
not entirely understood and the various factors that lead to hurricanes are
specific to local weather conditions and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">cannot
be predicted in advance</i>.
<br />
<br />
Yet predictions are made each year, and each year they are given
mention in the news. For that reason, Gray’s and Klotzbach’s forecasts deserve
to be tested for their accuracy.
<br />
<br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Bad Predictions</b>
<br />
One way to check whether forecasts have any predictive value is to
examine how previous forecasts have aligned with actual hurricane activity.
This table summarizes predicted versus actual Atlantic hurricane activity
from 1999 (the first year of Gray and Klotzbach forecast data available
on-line) through 2011.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="5" style="background: #00B0F0; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 333.9pt;" width="445"><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Number of hurricanes: named storms / hurricanes /
major hurricanes</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Year</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">CSU Predicted Number of Storms</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Actual Number of Storms</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">Difference</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #00B0F0; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">% Difference</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2011</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
16 / 9 / 5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
19 / 7 / 4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
3 / -2 / -1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
19 / 29 / 20</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2010</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
15 / 8 / 4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
19 / 12 / 5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4 / 4 / 1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
27 / 50 / 29</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2009</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
12 / 6 / 2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
9 / 3 / 2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-3 / -3 / 0</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
33 / 100 / 0</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2008</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
15 / 8 / 4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
16 / 8 / 5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1 / 0 / 1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
7 / 0 / 20</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2007</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
17 / 9 / 5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
15 / 6 / 2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-2 / -3 / -3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
13 / 50 / 150</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2006</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
17 / 9 / 5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
10 / 5 / 2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-7 / -4 / -3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
70 / 80 / 150</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2005</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
13
/ 7 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
28 / 15 / 7</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
15 / 8 / 4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
115 / 114 / 133</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2004</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
14
/ 8 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
16 / 9 / 6</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2 / 1 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
14 / 13 / 100</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2003</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
12 / 8 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
16 / 7 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
4 / -1 / 0</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
33 / 14 / 0</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2002</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
12 / 7 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
12 / 4 / 2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0 / -3 / -1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
0 / 75 / 50</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2001</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
10 / 6 / 2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
15 / 9 / 4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
5 / 3 / 2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
50 / 50 / 100</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
2000</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
11 / 7 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
15 / 8 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-4 / 1 / 3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
36 / 14 / 0</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 33.15pt;" valign="top" width="44"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
1999</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.25pt;" valign="top" width="107"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
14 / 9 / 4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="96"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
12 / 8 / 5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 67.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
-2 / -1 / 1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.0pt;" valign="top" width="108"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
17 / 13 / 20</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td colspan="5" style="background: #00B0F0; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 333.9pt;" valign="top" width="445"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: white;">13 Year Average for Actual
Atlantic Storms: 16/8/4</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
A review of the predicted versus actual hurricane activity shows that
the forecasts are wildly inaccurate. Averaging the 13-year period from 1999-2011,
Gray’s and Klotzbach’s forecasts have been off on a yearly basis by four named
storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. That’s a huge discrepancy
given the relatively modest number of named storms and hurricanes that actually
occur each year.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Vlx-9oVJP5lg52L03jOC7Bqtw82CZFtikrgQZojS22NxTC2Q5e4jawBwRkh5-qWbDujMueFIyWZ7e28LPPdpfUy0i3jLIKtaVVHmONQcrn_L8HS7zY6fxF3Q52iVwgxnumppbkoHSdyp/s1600/katrina+flooding.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0Vlx-9oVJP5lg52L03jOC7Bqtw82CZFtikrgQZojS22NxTC2Q5e4jawBwRkh5-qWbDujMueFIyWZ7e28LPPdpfUy0i3jLIKtaVVHmONQcrn_L8HS7zY6fxF3Q52iVwgxnumppbkoHSdyp/s320/katrina+flooding.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">No one could have predicted Katrina or the terrible 2005 hurricane season</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
2005 was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. That was
the year Katrina inundated New Orleans and the even more powerful hurricanes <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_rita">Rita</a>
and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_wilma">Wilma</a> pounded Texas and Florida, respectively. Did Gray and Klotzbach
forecast 2005 to be a record season for total storms and storm intensity? No.
Did they at least predict an above average year? Again no, in fact it was quite
to the contrary, they predicted that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season would
be <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">below average</i> both in the number
of storms and the number of powerful hurricanes. In fact their 2005 prediction
was lower than their 2004, 2006, and 2007 forecasts, all years where the actual
hurricane season was far less intense than 2005.
<br />
<br />
Gray’s and Klotzbach’s most accurate forecast was for 2008 when their
prediction very nearly matched the actual hurricane activity. The thing to note
about 2008 is that it was an <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">average</i>
year in all respects, with the total number of named storms, hurricanes, and major
hurricanes aligning with the 1999-2011 averages. In other words, Gray and
Klotzbach were most accurate when they forecasted an <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">average</i> year.
<br />
<br />
In 1999 they predicted an average year, it was below average; in 2000,
2001, and 2003 they predicted below average years, they were average; in 2004
they predicted a below average year, it was above average; in 2006 and 2007 they
predicted above average years, they were below average; and in 2010 and 2011
they predicted average years, they were above average. That’s 10 of 13 years
where the predictions proved to be just plain wrong. I could do better than Gray’s and Klotzbach’s sophisticated models and complex methodology just by guessing that each year will be about average. It begs the question: What good is a bad
prediction?
<br />
<br />
So take this year’s forecast of a quiet season with a grain of salt…we’re
already off to a loud start with the first storm forming before June. Let’s
just hope it’s not anywhere near as intense as 2005.
<br />
<br />
---
<br />
<br />
NOTES:
<br />
<br />
<a name="2"><a href="#1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[1]</span></b></a></a>
The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1 through November 30.
<br />
<br />
<a name="4"><a href="#3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[2]</span></b></a></a>
Classified as an organized storm with sustained winds of 39 to 74 mph.
<br />
<br />
<a name="6"><a href="#5"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[3]</span></b></a></a>
An organized storm with sustained winds of 75 mph or higher.
<br />
<br />
<a name="8"><a href="#7"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[4]</span></b></a></a>
A hurricane with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
<br />
<br />
<a name="10"><a href="#9"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #0000cc;">[5]</span></b></a></a>
I certainly can’t be the only one who finds it strange that the most prominent center
for tropical cyclone studies is located in landlocked, mountainous Colorado.
Shouldn’t this be a project being led out of the University of Miami or some
other southeast coastal school?Conroyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13134834837965665614noreply@blogger.com3